Jim Rogers 01 (May 08 - May 10)

[winston]

China bull and commodities guru Jim Rogers says the U.K. is "finished" and urged investors to dump the pound.

His comments come as Prime Minister Gordon Brown ordered a massive bank bailout worth $142 billion. The Economist Intelligence Unit has downgraded its global economic forecast to a 0.9 percent contraction in 2009, the worst since the end of World War II.

"I would urge you to sell any sterling you might have," Rogers said, reported Bloomberg.

"It's finished. I hate to say it, but I would not put any money in the U.K."

– NewsMax

[winston]

Jim Rogers says pound may approach dollar parity

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Jim Rogers, one of the world's best known investors, said on Monday the pound could fall near parity with the dollar in coming years given Britain's increasing debt and lack of economic growth drivers.

Rogers said last week the pound was "finished" and people should avoid investing in Britain, leading to a retort from Prime Minister Gordon Brown that economic policy would not be influenced by speculators.

Sterling weakened against the dollar on Monday to near a 23-year low of $1.3500 reached on Friday.

Asked whether he had a call on where the pound would be by year end Rogers said: "No...I'm a very bad short-term trader.

"I suspect it's going to make new lows -- it may take a decade," he told Reuters. "It's got near parity with the dollar before...why not again?"

Rogers was a co-founder along George Soros of the Quantum Fund, which made more than $1 billion betting against the pound in early 1990s and now is an independent investor based in Singapore.

"There's two big holes developing in the UK's balance of payments -- North Sea oil drying up and the financial industry. I don't see anything replacing those two big holes."

The UK economy shrank at its fastest pace since 1980 in the three months to December. British policymakers seem content to let the pound drop to help exporters and Brown has said the building blocks of recovery are in place.

"I'd like him to explain what they are," Rogers said, adding if this meant bailing out failing banks it would be a disaster, given Japan had tried that in the 1990s and was left struggling to recover with "zombie" banks.

"Take the pain, clean out the assets and start again," Rogers advised. He said joining the euro could make Britain more competitive but he did not have much long-term faith in that currency either. "I expect the euro won't be around in 20 years."

Rogers said he was not short selling the pound and was not picking on the UK. He said the United States and new President Barack Obama were making the same mistakes by bailing out banks.

"Obama has got the wrong plans and the wrong people," said Rogers, reiterating he was only positive on China and commodities.

"I'm not buying stocks anywhere -- the world is in recession and it's not going to get better," he said. "If politicians keep making mistakes it's going to last longer and longer."

[winston]

Renowned global investor Jim Rogers said he's keeping his money out of weakening Russia - saying there is "a good chance Russia will continue to disintegrate into more than one country" in a Bloomberg Television interview. "I am not optimistic about the continuous stability of Russia," Rogers said.

[winston]

On CNBC:-

1) Jim is still short US Investment Banks

2) Fundamentals for Commodities are actually improving. Mines are not being opened. Farmers cant get loan to buy fertilizers etc.

3) Huge short position in USD so Jim will probably sell his remaining dollars some time later this year. Same with his Japanese Yen. Dont know where yet to put his money..

4) Sold his Sterling as he cant see anything to replace North Sea Oil & City of London

5) Continued to buy Commodities eg. Oil, Cotton

[millionairemind]

On CNBC:-

5) Continued to buy Commodities eg. Oil, Cotton

Is he buying far dated futures contract or physically storing the oil for future use?

If he is as BIG as he claims, his buying should move the market? I know he is a billionaire... but how much of his networth is now in commodities?? He has been bullish on commodities for a very long time liao. Almost every other week I hear him say the same things over and over again... He is also ultra bullish on China.

Just wondering...

[winston]

Rogers Renews Bets U.S. Stocks Will Slump on Rescue (Update1) By Chen Shiyin and Lori Rothman

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, said he renewed bets that U.S. stocks will drop as the government’s economic revival plan is a “disaster.”

Rogers is shorting U.S. equities including International Business Machines Corp., General Electric Co. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. after closing earlier bets during October’s meltdown, he said in Singapore. So-called short sellers borrow stocks and sell them on hopes of capturing a profit by replacing the shares after prices fall.

“I covered most of my shorts in the U.S. stock market back in October specifically, and waited for a rally and there’s been a bit of a rally, so now I’ve started shorting again,” Rogers said. The bank-rescue plan is “a big, horrible disaster.”

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slid 4.9 percent yesterday, the biggest retreat since President Barack Obama’s inauguration, on concern that the government’s rescue plan will fail. The benchmark for U.S. equities is still 9.9 percent above the 11- year low reached on Nov. 20. The gauge tumbled 17 percent in October, the most for a month since 1987.

Bank of America Corp. and Citigroup Inc. sank more than 15 percent yesterday after Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said he’s still “exploring a range of different structures” to bail out lenders.

Geithner pledged up to $2 trillion in government financing for programs aimed at spurring new lending and addressing banks’ toxic assets. The proposals, which he said will “take time” to bear fruit, includes limits on bank dividends and acquisitions.

‘Adding More Debt’

“America doesn’t have reserves and it doesn’t have anything except, so far, the ability to borrow,” Rogers said. “That’s not going to be good for the world economy. It’s just adding more debt, more consumption to a problem that’s caused by debt and consumption.”

While Rogers has increased his bets against the U.S. market, other short sellers are losing their conviction as Obama works with Congress on a spending and tax-cut plan of about $800 billion to revive the economy. The number of shares borrowed and sold short on the New York Stock Exchange fell 28 percent last month from the peak in July.

IBM spokesman Fred McNeese declined to comment on the wagers against the company’s shares made by Rogers. Armonk, New York- based IBM, the world’s biggest computer-services provider, has rebounded 11 percent this year.

GE, JPMorgan

GE, based in Fairfield, Connecticut, has lost 66 percent of its market value in 12 months amid concern about declining profit in its finance businesses that span credit cards, aircraft leasing and bankruptcy lending for midsized companies.

Company spokesman Gary Sheffer said, “We don’t comment on any individual stock picks.”

JPMorgan’s spokesman Brian Marchiony declined comment by e- mail. The New York-based bank has slipped 22 percent this year.

Geithner is attempting to revive a U.S. banking system throttled by $756 billion in credit losses and an economy that lost almost 600,000 jobs last month. His new approach comes four months after the start of the $700 billion so-called TARP, the Troubled Asset Relief Program, which both Democrats and Republicans have criticized as ineffective.

“He caused the problem all last year,” Rogers said on Bloomberg Television. “He came up with TARP, and he came up with all these absurd bailouts. Mr. Geithner has never known what he is doing. He doesn’t know what he is doing now and pretty soon everybody is going to find out, including Mr. Obama.”

[winston]

China Stimulus Can’t Pull World Out of ‘Hole,’ Jim Rogers Says By Chua Kong Ho

March 5 (Bloomberg) -- China cannot pull the world economy “out of the hole” through its stimulus spending alone and the global recession is not going to end anytime soon, investor Jim Rogers said.

China’s parliament convened today in its annual meeting in Beijing, where Premier Wen Jiabao reiterated the government’s pledge to “significantly increase” investment in 2009 to help counter the slowest growth in seven years. He didn’t announce any new stimulus spending.

“China can’t solve the world’s problems,” Rogers, the author of “A Bull in China: Investing Profitably In The World’s Greatest Market,” said in a phone interview today. “China is a wonderful and growing economy but it cannot pull the world out of the hole.”

Wen’s report to lawmakers, the equivalent of a U.S. State of the Union speech, reiterated the country’s 8 percent growth target. That’s more optimistic than the International Monetary Fund’s forecast that the nation’s economy will expand 6.7 percent, the least in almost two decades.

The Shanghai Composite Index rose 6.1 percent yesterday, the most in four months, on speculation the government will increase a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus plan announced in November aimed at combating a slowdown that’s thrown at least 20 million workers out of work.

The index rose as much as 2 percent today after the government said banks lent more than 800 billion ($117 billion) in February after a record month in January, signaling the flow of credit needed to jumpstart the economy was continuing.

‘Unrealistic’

Stocks rallied worldwide yesterday, as commodity prices surged on hopes an expanded stimulus plan by China will increase demand for raw materials. The S&P 500 Index futures reversed earlier gains today after Wen’s speech contained no references to increased stimulus spending.

“One question people keep asking is can China bring the whole world along out of this recession,” said Lee King Fuei, a Hong Kong-based portfolio manager at Schroder Investment Management, which oversees about $158 billion worldwide. “The fact that they’re even asking this question tells me they’re being unrealistic.”

Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, said he hasn’t bought any Chinese stocks since November as valuations are not attractive.

The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which tracks Chinese companies mostly traded in Hong Kong, is valued at 8.9 times reported earnings. Valuations fell to 7.4 times the week ended Oct. 24, the lowest in almost seven years, according to Bloomberg data. The Shanghai Composite’s 20 percent gain this year also made it the best performer among 91 benchmark indexes tracked by Bloomberg.

“I haven’t bought any Chinese stocks since November and haven’t sold anything either,” Rogers said. “I’m waiting for cheaper prices. I’m not buying Chinese shares at these levels.”

Rogers added he remains “extremely bullish” on agriculture and that “commodities are the only sector in the world where the fundamentals are improving.”

[kennynah]

Rogers added he remains “extremely bullish” on agriculture and that “commodities are the only sector in the world where the fundamentals are improving.”

yeah sure.... dao gay (bean sprouts) is a great condiment to porridge....so is giam chai (salted mustard)... all agro stuff...

[winston]

Jim Rogers Doesn't Mince Words About the Crisis

Maria Bartiromo talks to global investor Jim Rogers

By Maria Bartiromo

In 1970 a young Wall Streeter named Jim Rogers hooked up with George Soros to start the legendary Quantum Fund. The ensuing decades have seen Rogers build an iconoclastic career as an author, adventurer, and creator of the Rogers International Commodities Index. And throughout, Rogers—now based in Singapore—has remained an outspoken global investor. Today is no different. He has harsh words for former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, suggests President Barack Obama and his economic team are not up to the task, and thinks tough love is the answer for America.

MARIA BARTIROMO
What do you think of the government's response to the economic crisis?

JIM ROGERS
Terrible. They're making it worse. It's pretty embarrassing for President Obama, who doesn't seem to have a clue what's going on—which would make sense from his background. And he has hired people who are part of the problem. [Treasury Secretary Tim] Geithner was head of the New York Fed, which was supposedly in charge of Wall Street and the banks more than anybody else. And as you remember, [Obama's chief economic adviser, Larry] Summers helped bail out Long-Term Capital Management years ago. These are people who think the only solution is to save their friends on Wall Street rather than to save 300 million Americans.

So what should they be doing?

What would I like to see happen? I'd like to see them let these people go bankrupt, let the bankrupt go bankrupt, stop bailing them out. There are plenty of banks in America that saw this coming, that kept their powder dry and have been waiting for the opportunity to go in and take over the assets of the incompetent. Likewise, many, many homeowners didn't go out and buy five homes with no income.

Many homeowners have been waiting for this, and now all of a sudden the government is saying: "Well, too bad for you. We don't care if you did it right or not, we're going to bail out the 100,000 or 200,000 who did it wrong." I mean, this is outrageous economics, and it's terrible morality.

You have said Bear Stearns and Lehman (LEHMQ) would still be around if Greenspan hadn't bailed out Long-Term Capital Management in 1998. Can you explain?

Well, if Long-Term Capital Management had been allowed to fail, Lehman and the rest of them would've lost a huge amount of money, their capital would've been impaired, and it would've put a terrible crimp on Wall Street. It would've slowed them down for years. Instead of losing capital, losing assets, and losing incompetent people, they hired more incompetent people.

Should AIG (AIG) have been allowed to fail, too?

First of all, banks and investment banks and insurance companies have been failing for hundreds of years. Yes, we would've had a terrible two years. But you're dragging out the pain. We had 10 years of the worst credit excesses in world history. You don't wipe out something like that in six months or a year by saying: "Oh, now let's wake up and start over again."

What about Citigroup (C)? What about the car companies?

They should be allowed to go bankrupt. Why should American taxpayers put up billions to save a few car companies? They made the mistakes! We didn't make the mistakes! I'm sure they'll give them the money, but I'm telling you, it's a mistake. It's a horrible mistake.

I totally understand what you're saying, but the banks are under massive pressure.

They all took huge, huge profits. Who was the head of Citigroup? Chuck Prince? I mean, how many hundreds of millions of dollars did Prince take out of the company? How many hundreds of millions of dollars did other Citibank execs take out of the company? Wall Street has paid something like $40 billion or $50 billion in bonuses in the past decade. Who was that guy who was the head of Merrill Lynch (MERR)?

Stan O'Neal?

Right, Stan O'Neal. He got $150 million for leaving, even though he ruined the company. Look at the guy at Fannie Mae (FNM), Franklin Raines. He did worse accounting than Enron. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (FRE) alone did nothing but pure fraudulent accounting year after year, and yet that guy's walking around with millions of dollars. What the hell kind of system is this?

Are you worried the economic crisis will lead to political turmoil in China and elsewhere?

I absolutely am. We're going to have social unrest in much of the world. America won't be immune.

What does all this mean from an investment standpoint?

Always in the past, when people have printed huge amounts of money or spent money they didn't have, it has led to higher inflation and higher prices. In my view, that's certainly going to happen again this time. Oil prices are down at the moment, but that's temporary. And you're going to see higher prices, especially of commodities, because the fundamentals of commodities are enhanced by what's happening.

Which commodities are worth buying or holding on to?

I recently bought more of all of them. But I really think agriculture is going to be the best place to be. Agriculture's been a horrible business for 30 years. For decades the money shufflers, the paper shufflers, have been the captains of the universe. That is now changing. The people who produce real things [will be on top]. You're going to see stockbrokers driving taxis. The smart ones will learn to drive tractors, because they'll be working for the farmers. It's going to be the 29-year-old farmers who have the Lamborghinis. So you should find yourself a nice farmer and hook up with him or her, because that's where the money's going to be in the next couple of decades.

Maria Bartiromo is the anchor of CNBC's Closing Bell.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/co ... 811535.htm

[winston]

China to Overcome Global Recession First, Rogers Says (Update1) By Chen Shiyin and Bernard Lo

March 9 (Bloomberg) -- China’s stimulus spending will help its economy overcome the global recession sooner than the U.S. and other countries, investor Jim Rogers said.

China’s reserves allow the government to spend on projects that will make the nation more efficient and competitive as the global economy recovers, said Rogers, the author of “A Bull in China: Investing Profitably in the World’s Greatest Market.” Signs China is taking steps to liberalize its currency will also benefit the country, he added.

“I certainly expect China to come out of it sooner than the U.S.,” Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, said in a Bloomberg TV interview in the city-state. “They seem to be spending the money on the right things. China is doing a far better job than the others.”

Premier Wen Jiabao reiterated last week the government’s pledge to “significantly increase” investment in 2009 to help counter the slowest growth in seven years. He didn’t specify new stimulus spending in addition to a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) plan announced in November.

The People’s Bank of China cut interest rates five times in the final four months of last year, including the biggest single reduction since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis. The government is targeting growth of 8 percent in 2009, after the economy slowed to a 6.8 percent gain in the fourth quarter.

Yuan, Yen, Dollar

China will allow trade settlement in yuan with Hong Kong soon, central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said at a briefing in Beijing on March 6. President Li Lihui of Bank of China Ltd., the nation’s largest foreign-exchange lender, said yesterday in Beijing the bank is already conducting trial international yuan settlements in Shanghai and Hong Kong.

“I’m glad to see they’re taking yet another step towards convertibility,” said Rogers, who in April 2006 accurately predicted oil would reach $100 a barrel and gold $1,000 an ounce. He said he owns Japanese yen as he expects more of the money to “come home.”

Rogers added he plans to sell his remaining U.S. dollar holdings later this year because the world’s largest economy isn’t a “safe haven” for investors.

“I plan later this year to get out of the rest of my U.S. dollars,” he said. “It’s had an artificial rally too but it’s a terribly flawed currency. The U.S. is printing money as fast as it can and that’s always throughout history led to currency problems down the road.”

Rogers on June 30 advised investors to avoid the dollar “at all costs” as the U.S. economy slows, and favored commodities. The dollar has risen against nine of the Group of 10 currencies since then, according to data tracked by Bloomberg.

Rogers added he remains bullish on agriculture and that commodities are “the only area of the world economy I know which is benefiting.” He said he owns “some” gold and silver, and regards silver as “cheaper.”

Water, power and other infrastructure companies’ shares are favored because their earnings are less vulnerable during the global slowdown, Rogers said.