Jim Rogers 01 (May 08 - May 10)

[millionairemind]

haha, Old Jim is there to talk down the US dollar and talk up his commodities every chance he has got...

Soros already turned neutral on the USD.

[millionairemind]

Jim Rogers says commodities bull market will continue

(BANGKOK) Jim Rogers, who in April 2006 correctly predicted oil would reach US$100 a barrel and gold US$1,000 an ounce, said a tumble in commodities from records represented a correction in a rising market.

'I don't see that it's the end of the bull market,' the chairman of Rogers Holdings, said in an interview here before speaking at an investor conference yesterday.

'Until either a lot of supply comes onstream or the economy collapses, the bull market will continue,' he said.

Soybeans, copper, platinum and crude oil have dropped from all-time highs after a rally in the US dollar curbed demand for raw materials as a hedge against inflation and concerns increased that economic growth will slow.

Sixteen of the 19 commodities in the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index fell this month, after the index plunged 10 per cent in July, the biggest such drop in 28 years.

'I am contemplating whether it's time to get involved in metals again,' Mr Rogers, 65, said. 'I haven't bought any for awhile.'

Gold fell to the lowest since October on Aug 15, while platinum had the biggest intraday loss since 2001. Aluminium has dropped 18 per cent from a record on July 11 and Nickel is down 26 per cent in the past year.





Marc Faber, 62, who told investors to bail out of US stocks before 1987's so- called Black Monday crash said on Aug 15 that commodities may have peaked.

'Whether that is a final peak or an intermediate peak followed by higher prices, we don't know yet. It could go lower,' he said. - Bloomberg

[winston]

Interview with Jim Rogers, Part II: China as World’s Best Long-Term Profit Play

VANCOUVER, B.C. - Despite its many problems, China remains such a strong long-term profit play that giving up on that country now would be like selling all your U.S. stocks at the start of the 1900s - before America created massive wealth by evolving into a world superpower, global investing guru Jim Rogers said in an exclusive interview with Money Morning.

During a 40-minute interview during a wealth-management conference in this West Coast Canadian city last month, Rogers also said that:

* The anti-travel policies China has put in place to reduce gridlock and slash pollution during the Summer Olympic Games may actually have created a “bottom” in China stocks - possibly creating a great entry point for long-term investors.

* The 34-day worldwide Olympic torch relay leading up to the opening ceremonies likely re-awakened China’s deeply felt nationalism - which will be key as that country strives to build demand for its domestically produced products.

* The country must still deal with such problems as pollution, rising inflation and an overheated economy.

Keith Fitz-Gerald [Q]: There’s a lot of talk that the Chinese will use the Olympics to launch a new wave of nationalism and to move ahead. Are the Olympic Games as relevant as some people think?

Jim Rogers: They’ve already got tremendous nationalism. But the international reactions about Tibet and the Olympic torchbearers re-awakened it.

And the politicians, of course, need it because they’ve got their own problems with inflation and overheating and [pollution and] the rest of it. So, like politicians throughout history, they fan it - do their best to say: Hell, it’s not our problem. It’s the evil farmers. It’s the French. See that store over there: It’s their fault. It’s the Americans.

So that is happening, anyway.

As far as the Olympics themselves, they’re irrelevant.

America had the Olympics in ‘96 and it had no effect on the American economy - before or after. Some people in Atlanta were affected before and after. And some people who were involved with the Olympics were affected before and after.

America at that time had 270 million people. China’s got five times as many people, and it’s a much bigger country geographically.

Sydney, Australia had the 2000 Olympics. It had virtually no effect on the Sydney, or on the Australian economy - even though Australia had 18 million people. It’s tiny … nothing. Yes, it had an effect on some people.

Greece, in 2004, had the Olympics. You haven’t heard stories of a major collapse or a major revival of Greece in 2005, because the fact is that the Games didn’t have much of an effect - not a noticeable effect, anyway. It had spot effects only, so I ignore the Olympics as far as the Chinese economy - and its stock market - is concerned.

[Q]: Are you still bullish on China?

Rogers: Oh, yeah. I never sold anything in China. In fact, I bought more. I bought Chinese Airlines [PINK: CHAWF] last week. I flew one coming here. Maybe I made a mistake [with the investment], because it was emptier than I thought it would be.

[Q]: Any thoughts why?

Rogers: One thing, you know, is that China’s made it extremely difficult to get a visa right now. In the past, it’s been hard to get a seat because Chinese airlines were so full. On this flight there were empty seats.

That brought home to me that they are cutting back enormously on visas right now. Discouraging travel, trying to clean the air, trying to protect against somebody blowing up the Forbidden City, et cetera. So the fact that planes are empty right now may be smarter than I thought.

Maybe I did get the bottom on the airlines, because if they are going to reissue the visas again, after all this, after September [after the Olympic Games have concluded], then the planes are going to fill up pretty quickly again. I would have picked the stock up at a bottom.

[Q]: Yes.

Rogers: Anyway I’m still around China. I have never sold any of my Chinese companies. You know, selling China in 2008 is like selling America in 1908. Sure, let’s say the market goes down another 40% - so what! You look back over 100 years, you look back from the beauty of 1928, or even 1938 [in the depths of the Great Depression], and there is somebody who bought shares in 1908. He was still a lot better off having not sold in 1908.

[winston]

You Should Consider North Korea as an Investment
By Tom Dyson

Last week, I met Jim Rogers for a drink at the apartment complex where he lives in Singapore...

Jim Rogers is a famous American speculator. He's written four bestsellers on investing. He's been to hundreds of countries. And he's made hundreds of millions of dollars from his investments.

Jim asked me what I'm doing in Singapore. I told him I'm traveling around Asia for 10 weeks and visiting China, India, Thailand, Malaysia, Korea, and Singapore.

"Well, you're visiting all the wrong countries," he said. He told me I should be going to Myanmar, North Korea, Cambodia, and Taiwan.

Myanmar – also known as Burma – was the richest country in Southeast Asia in the 1960s. Now it's the poorest. A military junta runs the country. It's the most corrupt country in the world, with high inflation, no infrastructure, and no education...

But it does have 2,000 kilometers of white sandy beaches, and huge reserves of natural resources. Jim says Burma could be the next Thailand.

Jim thinks North Korea and South Korea will unify. North Korea has all the minerals, the cheap labor, and shares a border with China. South Korea has all the intellectual capital, the technology, and the expertise. Jim says it's the perfect match.

I asked him if we could get money into North Korea. "You can always get money in," he said. "That's never a problem. It's getting money out you need to worry about."

I suggested buying a retail mall or a shopping plaza just across the border in South Korea. South Korean retail space could appreciate when the North Koreans come flooding across to buy their first iPods and laptops.

Jim said he hasn't figured out how he'll play it yet. "But real estate is very cheap up there [in northern South Korea]. Everyone's worried there's going to be a war. That's probably a good place to start."

We also talked about Cambodia, which is opening its first stock market next year. The South Koreans are providing the technology, he says, "so they'll do it right." There must be value in a country that's never had a stock market before.

Jim is very bullish on Taiwan. Taiwan has the world's third-largest stash of foreign exchange reserves... and holds some of the world's most competitive technology companies. Not to mention a 25% household savings rate. Taiwan is also perfectly placed to profit from China's rise to world superpower status.

The Taiwan stock market is the worst performing stock market in Asia over the last 20 years. It's down 40% from 1990 levels. But I'm bullish on Taiwan, too. In my newsletter, The 12% Letter, I just recommended a Taiwanese company that's returned an average 18.7% per year since 1993. And it pays a huge dividend.

Finally, Jim likes Johor, Malaysia's most southern state. Johor is on the other side of the river from Singapore. The Malaysians have made Johor their own special economic zone. They're hoping it'll be more like China's Shenzhen – China's largest manufacturing city. Shenzhen is located right across the water from Hong Kong, has its own stock market, and is China's second largest port.

Jim thinks the region will flourish like Shenzhen did. "Anyone looking to build a new Asian manufacturing plant will look at Johor," he said. "I hear they've got beautiful beaches, too."

My wife and I crossed the border between Johor and Singapore three days ago. It was a nightmare. First we had to get off the bus to have our passport stamped to exit Malaysia. Then we had to get off the bus again to enter Singapore. The Malaysian stop took five minutes. Singapore's customs took an hour and a half to clear.

So it looks like the bureaucrats still have some knots to untangle. That means we still have plenty of time to find a cheap investment in Johor...

In the meantime, we need to change our travel plans...

Source: Daily Wealth

[ishak]

More `Chaos' Ahead for U.S. Banks, Investor Jim Rogers Predicts

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. financials face more "chaos'' as the credit market worsens, investor Jim Rogers predicted.

"Balance sheets of many of these financial institutions are still terribly impaired and there are more problems to come,'' he said during a Bloomberg Television interview. "We had the worst credit bubble in the history of the world. You don't clean that out in a year or two or three.''

The chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings said he's still betting against U.S. investment banks, even after ending his short sale of Citigroup Inc. a few weeks ago because the bank's stock fell too low. Citigroup shares closed at $14.56 on July 15, the lowest since 1997. The world's largest bank by assets has rallied 25 percent since then.

Rogers also called the government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac "outrageous'' and said the largest U.S. mortgage finance companies should have declared bankruptcy.

"I'm happy some people will be able to get lower mortgages, but I shouldn't have to pay for it,'' he said. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac executives aren't "turning in their Maseratis when they're asking us to bail them out.''

Both companies dropped to less than $1 this week in New York Stock Exchange trading after regulators put them into a government-operated conservatorship, ousted their chief executive officers and scrapped dividends. U.S. financial stocks in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index fell 6.6 percent, the most since July, yesterday after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.'s talks to sell a stake to Korea Development Bank broke down. The group lost another 1.8 percent today for a year-to-date slump of 29 percent.

Rogers, who correctly predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999, said he's still bullish on oil. The fuel has fallen 31 percent since its July 11 intraday record.

Short selling is the sale of stock borrowed from shareholders in the hope of profiting by buying the securities later at a lower price and returning them to the holder.

[millionairemind]

For, Against Uncle Sam's Bailout
By DAN DORFMAN | September 22, 2008

The exact details have yet to be spelled out, but an internationally known global money manager, Jim Rogers, a transplanted New Yorker now residing in Singapore, is denouncing Uncle Sam's estimated $700 billion rescue package, saying he's convinced the fallout from the bailout would be disastrous.

"It's astonishing, devastating, and very harmful for America and American citizens," he tells me. "It means we're in for the worst recession since World War II, as well as higher long-term interest rates, higher inflation, higher taxes, a weaker dollar and substantially lower stock prices."

That's his reaction to the government's efforts to relieve the banks of hundreds of billions of dollars of bad debts and revitalize the floundering credit markets by injecting a heavy dose of fresh new liquidity into the financial system.

Addressing the explosive two-day Dow Jones Industrial Average rally of nearly 779 points, Mr. Rogers ridicules the buying binge, insisting that investors "were foolishly sucked in by hysteria and a buying panic. I wouldn't buy now because it's insane." Describing the rise as artificial and unsustainable, he contends "it's only a matter of time before reality sets in and the market heads down again." Making matters worse, he says, it's "embarrassing to see how little the presidential candidates know or grasp what's going on, just like the current administration."

Mr. Rogers, one of Wall Street's great success stories — he made millions working with George Soros in the 1960s and 1970s — evokes the 1970s, when a Federal Reserve chairman, Arthur Burns, wouldn't let anyone fail, and insists we're making the same mistake again.

The 65-year-old manager presently owns some dollars and says he thought the recent greenback rally would continue. "Now I'm not so sure, that rally may be over," he says. Mr. Rogers has covered his short sales — a bet stock prices will fall — on Fannie Mae, Citigroup, and some companies in the homebuilder sector. On the buy side, he recently began to acquire stocks in China and Taiwan.

A professor of economics at the University of Maryland, Peter Morici, also says he is skeptical about the rescue package. "Wall Street has once again acted irrationally," he says. Why so? Because he views the government's action as only "half a loaf," one that will give the economy a temporary lift and stave off a recession. It doesn't address the bigger problems, he says, notably bank management incompetence and the necessity of major bank reforms. Without such changes, he contends, banks will begin to fail again a year or two down the pike, restricting what the government will be able to achieve in Social Security and health care reform.

In contrast, a leading technical analyst, Mark Leibovit, takes a more positive approach. "The game on Wall Street has now changed; you don't fight city hall, or in this case Uncle Sam." The crack technician has done a complete about-face on his outlook for the stock market. A few weeks ago, his roughly 20 market indicators, bearish as could be, suggested the Dow would break below 10,000. Now, he says, they're firing off a strong buy signal, indicating to him a Dow flight to 13,000 before year-end.

A former Merrill Lynch strategist, Bill Rhodes, also offers a sunny view. "If the banks start lending to each other again — which I think they will — the credit crisis will resolve itself and we'll have seen a market bottom," he says.

In a move to stop the carnage on Wall Street and shore up investor confidence, the Securities and Exchange Commission has also gotten into the act, banning short sales on nearly 800 financial companies. Although temporary, this action has come in for heavy Street criticism. One critic, the portfolio manager of the Graham & Dodd Fund PLC, David Rosen, calls it "an anti-capitalist move, very suspect." It means that if the market drops, there's no hedging mechanism for slowing a decline and it makes for a much more volatile environment, he says.

A stockbroker at Kern, Suslow Securities, Malcolm Lowenthal, describes the government's intervention in the financial crisis as an absolute necessity. "Before it, you had stark financial terror. Without it, you would have had a slaughter on Wall Street." He notes that prior to the two-day rally, some friends had sold out of every stock they owned.

Meanwhile, in case you're wondering who's next on the bailout parade, some Wall Street pros figure Detroit's Big 3 may soon join the list. A manager at one of my local sushi restaurants also expressed interest. "We're not doing too good," he says. "The people here want to know where do we go for our bailout."

[millionairemind]

People don’t have a clue about commodities: Jim Rogers
Sundaresha Subramanian / DNA MONEY | Thursday, 18 September , 2008, 16:09

Mumbai: Jim Rogers is short. That is the first thing one noticed when he attended the unveiling of Birla Sun Life Commodity Equities Fund, amidst star-stuck journalists and investors last week. But that was until he started speaking. With every word he said, Rogers grew taller, until there was no one as tall as him.

Indeed, so convincing does he sound that one would find it hard to dispute even if he said that we were in the midst of a commodities boom.

The investment ‘biker’ says commodities are in a phase where stocks were thirty years ago. “Even today, people don’t have a clue about commodities. Many think, “Coffee comes from Starbucks.” Bull markets happen when people begin to understand about a particular asset class. That’s what is going to drive a long bull phase in commodities. Out of the thousands of mutual funds in US, only a few hundred invest in commodities. That is going to change.”

Bull markets are caused by supply and demand, says Rogers. He points out how the last lead mine was dug 25 years ago and the last lead smelt was built in the US in 1969. Oil fields operational today are 40 years old. Indonesia was thrown out of OPEC, the oil producers’ cartel, as it exhausted its reserves. More countries like Malaysia and UK are likely to become net importers. As people in Asia and around the world earn more and get wealthy, they demand better infrastructure and good food, increasing the demand many times over.

“Supply down... demand going up? That’s what I call a bull market,” he says. That’s how sound Rogers sounds.

But, just because Birla Sunlife MF got the God of Commodities to argue for its theme, should you blindly put your money in its scheme?

Let us see what they have got.

To begin with, Indian mutual funds are not allowed to invest directly in commodities, so the investment objective of the open-ended Birla Sun Life Commodity Equities Fund is to offer investors long-term capital growth by investing in securities of domestic and overseas commodity companies, i.e. companies engaged in or focusing on the specified commodity business and/or overseas mutual fund scheme(s) that have similar investment objectives.

The Fund will be open for subscription till October 14.

Anil Kumar, CEO, Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company Ltd, said, “We see commodities as essential and not an alternate investment class. Given that supply-side constraints and explosive demand are creating upward pressure on commodity prices, global commodity companies and commodity-focussed mutual funds are currently generating above-par returns. We felt this is an opportune time to launch the Birla Sun Life Commodity Equities Fund to offer investors an avenue to diversify their portfolio.”

The scheme offers three plans: Global Precious Metals Plan (benchmarked against Dow Jones Precious Metals Index), Global Agri Plan (benchmarked against S&P Global Agribusiness Index) and Global Multi Commodity Plan (benchmarked against MSCI World Index).

As the names suggest, the first plan will invest in companies dealing with gold, silver and platinum, the second will buy stocks of companies dealing with agricultural commodities and the third will have exposure to both of the above categories apart from energy related stocks and those dealing with water.

The fund says it will pick stocks from a broad universe of about 700 stocks. Investment strategy will be based on quantitative models. The corpus will be invested across the spectrum of market capitalisation.

Bhavdeep Bhatt, the AMC’s head of products, says the fund will use an algorithm jointly developed by Birla Sunlife and Merrill Lynch.

There is a two-level research process, wherein Merrill will provide fundamental research inputs on companies on a quarterly basis. Based on these inputs, the algorithm will come up with a model portfolio on a monthly basis. This rule-based investing will reduce the fund manager to just an executor of the algorithm’s portfolio. The scheme would typically hold 20-30 stocks.

Bhatt also added that since there was no fund flow between Merrill Lynch and the MF, the buyout of Merrill Lynch by Bank of America amidst the ongoing turmoil will not directly affect the fund.

The global turmoil which Merrill Lynch succumbed to is a dampener for equities around the world. The dollar is rallying, which is slicing commodity prices considerably with oil crashing nearly 40% from its top. Even if commodities rally, it’s not necessary that the stocks this fund invests in will automatically go up.

In Rogers’ words, “Stocks are painful. You need to track a lot of things. They get affected by central banks, politics, corporate governance, balance sheet and environment issues.”

Can an algorithm track all these effectively? Your call would be as good as mine. So, where should you invest? Swiss franc, airline stocks, yen and yuan. And why? Because, Jim Rogers is long on these.

[helios]

Embedded videos have been disabled.
Click to view video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-AtxSDMc87I

Jim Roger: i bought China last week. i bought Chinese Shares. Where? i bought them in Hongkong, Singapore, Taiwan .. seems that Chinese government trying to change things? Then i started buying shares ...

[helios]

Mr. Jim Rogers, commodities and investment guru; Professor Bernard Yeung, NUS Business School


China Journey

Media: You travel a lot, what do you see in ordinary people?

Roger: You learn more from the ordinary people than you do from the government.

I mean, I could go and see the government officials, I know what they are going to say. I can say it better than they can. I’ve been investing around the world and going around the world for a long time.

Where you can really find out what’s going on about the world is to see the world close to the ground and talk to ordinary people.

You cross the border and you are going to find out more about the country than if you fly into an international airport and go through customs and immigration. Because millions of people live across the border out in the jungle or in the deserts, and then you get to find out what’s really happening.

Media: Could you describe an unforgettable moment while you were travelling in China?

Roger: Well, I have been to China many times. I was in Hami, Xinjiang (哈密、新疆). It was the first time I drove across China. They didn’t have many hotels in those days.

I went into the hotel. It was very hard and I couldn’t figure out what it was. And then I realised it was a bag of rice. They gave me a bag of rice for a pillow. There was no tourist in China, nobody travelled in China. That’s when I realised a great opportunity existed in China as it continued to open up because there was no tourism.

And that’s what I now know, there’s fabulous opportunities for tourism in China.

For full text and audioclip, visit: http://www.lioninvestor.com/jim-rogers-interview-2

Information and Photo Courtesy of National University of Singapore Business School.

[iam802]

I saw this interview with Jim Rogers on CFOAsia November 2008 issue.

Will just summarise the key points:

1. US will survive as the global reserve currnecy in his lifetime

2. Buyers of US bonds will see a poor return on their investment (if the Fed doesn't raise interest rates); hence less reason for buyers to support it.

3. Commodities won't necessary move in lock step with the US dollar (either directly or inversely)

4. Will pick agricultural that will do well in the mid-term as other commodities have achieved all time highs.

5. Recent pullback in commodity is normal. It happen to oil in 1999, 2001 (40-50% pullback), 2003 and 2007.

6. Oil will continue to trend up. No major oil field has been found in the last 35 or 40 years.

7. History shows that previous bull market last 15 to 23 years. We are now in year 10, so historically speaking, still has some room left to run.


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