Cem Karsan

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Stairstep decline
https://x.com/ozzy_livin/status/1876662108261371918

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The market is searching for a short-term bottom, says
@jam_croissant
. When will it find one?
https://x.com/SchwabNetwork/status/1879984697389789415

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TLDR:
1. If the Fed take a wait and see approach to inflation then mkt starts to unravel in the June timeframe - he thinks this is the more likely scenario but its possible the new administration can apply pressure for econ to run hotter

2. However if the Fed get in front of this then we can get a blow off top (6600) lasting into late 2024 early 2025.

Linking this to BTC cycle - Scenario 1 the first top is in May-ish then maybe we get another run into Nov so more like the 2021 cycle

Scenario 2 however would suggest a persist move from now to the end of the cycle more like the 2017 cycle

2 paths for bonds:

1. Pullback in yields for next month or 2 followed by a run back up in yields to 6.25% which would then provoke the decline

2. Accommodative monetary policy, a crazy steepener which causes mkt to run higher and faster for longer

Either way he thinks a large decline is coming its just a matter of when. Thinks that long dated calls are very cheap, saying own the calls and sell the stock.

The market is searching for a short-term bottom, says
@jam_croissant
. When will it find one?
https://x.com/SchwabNetwork/status/1879984697389789415

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- For this rally to proceed, must start to push significant levels higher on Tuesday $ES_F/ $SPX and later on proceed to attack new highs above +2/+3 standard dev.

- If we do not, its a red flag that we will continue our decline down.

- If Fed keeps their "wait & see/react" approach come 1/29 FOMC, we will continue our decline to a 10% correction maybe further: $SPX 5500-5200 by March OPEX.

- Only way to stop this is Fed changing their "tone", catering to Trumps will and doing some form of a massive liquidity injection. (still a real possibility)

- Correction into March OPEX should spark another counter-trend rally almost reaching previous highs that will end between May-July.

- Q3 we get a massive correction, and "when we finally give up a topping process".

https://x.com/KushnFlow/status/1881565050110165256

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10 minutes to include discussion on what is affecting liquidity in the markets
https://x.com/ozzy_livin/status/1892234181905711196

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We may rally another 400 pts higher from here (~5800)

BUT we believe enough damage has been done that institutions will be ready to sell into this rally
https://x.com/ozzy_livin/status/1910855484040491055

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We are optimistic the current rally will peak at 5650-6000
https://x.com/ozzy_livin/status/1911821503160541628

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@Jam_croissant
returns TODAY at 4:30pm ET for a special holiday edition of Weekend Rip with
@benandemilshow
.
https://x.com/Stocktwits/status/1935701079787774268

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A good watch


Yes, inflation is up.
Yes, retail is buying memes.
Yes, logic is getting obliterated.
Yes, the pain trade is alive and well
https://x.com/jam_croissant/status/1948425115907035432

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On August 22nd, we're hosting
@jam_croissant
, volatility pioneer and CIO of Kai Volatility Advisors.
https://x.com/MenthorQpro/status/1952741809894920263