“Don’t focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.”
- Paul Tudor Jones
Years of low interest rates have bloated stock valuations to a level not seen since 2000, right before the Nasdaq tumbled 75% over two-plus years.
Guggenheim Partner’s Scott Minerd said he expected a “significant correction” this summer or early fall.
Philip Yang, a macro manager who has run Willowbridge Associates since 1988, sees a stock plunge of between 20% and 40%, according to people familiar with his thinking.
Even Larry Fink, whose BlackRock Inc oversees US$5.4 trillion mostly betting on rising markets, acknowledged this week that stocks could fall between 5% and 10% if corporate earnings disappoint.
Seth Klarman, who runs the US$30bil Baupost Group, told investors in a letter last week that corporate insiders have been heavy sellers of their company shares.
Margin debt the money clients borrow from their brokers to purchase shares hit a record US$528bil in February,
Rising interest rates in the US mean fewer companies will be able to borrow money to pay dividends and buy back shares.
About 30% of the jump in the S&P 500 between the third quarter of 2009 and the end of last year was fuelled by buybacks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The new danger zone is the half-trillion dollars in risk parity funds. These funds aim to systematically spread risk equally across different asset classes by putting more money in lower volatility securities and less in those whose prices move more dramatically.
Because risk-parity funds have been scooping up equities of late as volatility hit historic lows, some market participants, Jones included, believe they’ll be forced to dump them quickly in a stock tumble, exacerbating any decline.
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