Wolf ! Wolf ! Wonder how many people lost their shirt shorting the EUR on his advice ?
GARY SHILLING CALLS FOR EURO PARITY AND 3% 30 YEAR TREASURIES
19 July 2010 by TPC
Gary Shilling is as optimistic as ever. Unfortunately, he’s one of the few people who has accurately called for deflation and continued economic woes.
Thus far he’s been right and if he proves prescient we could be in for a lot more pain:
http://pragcap.com/gary-shilling-calls- ... treasuries
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Gary Shilling
Re: Gary Shilling
by winston » Wed Jul 21, 2010 6:35 am
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: Gary Shilling
by winston » Sat Aug 14, 2010 8:30 am
SHILLING: WE’RE IN A WORLD OF “CHRONIC DEFLATIONâ€
12 August 2010 by TPC
Few people have nailed the deflationary environment as well as Gary Shilling.
Shilling was one of the few people who foresaw the housing crisis and the equity market catastrophe in 2008 and although he remained bearish in 2009 he has been largely correct with regards to the macro picture.
He believes we’re in for a prolonged bout with deflation and says Obama’s economic policies are only making matters worse.
http://pragcap.com/shilling-were-in-a-w ... -deflation
12 August 2010 by TPC
Few people have nailed the deflationary environment as well as Gary Shilling.
Shilling was one of the few people who foresaw the housing crisis and the equity market catastrophe in 2008 and although he remained bearish in 2009 he has been largely correct with regards to the macro picture.
He believes we’re in for a prolonged bout with deflation and says Obama’s economic policies are only making matters worse.
http://pragcap.com/shilling-were-in-a-w ... -deflation
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Re: Gary Shilling
by winston » Sat Nov 13, 2010 9:29 am
I'm starting to think that everyone has a certain way of looking at things and most people are not able to change their way of thinking.
This guy has been a perma bear since I started reading his columns in Forbes two decades ago ..
Gary Shilling Sees `Significant' Stock Selloff Within 12 Months By Rita Nazareth
Gary Shilling, who predicted the U.S. housing collapse, says the stock market is overvalued and foresees a “significant†selloff within a year as the Federal Reserve fails to stimulate economic growth.
“The earlier QE1 didn’t and I don’t think this will, either. The economy is weak and it doesn’t take very much of a shock to push it into negative territory. I don’t think that’s enough to justify where stocks are now.â€
Shilling, who predicts real gross domestic product growth of 2 percent “and maybe less in the next couple of years,†said the government is out of options for fixing the economy.
No Magic Bullet
“There’s not much that can be done,†said Shilling. “There isn’t any magic bullet. There isn’t anything in my view that’s going to return us to the solid days of the 80s and 90s when consumers were spending freely. I don’t think that’s going to come back. The need to deleverage is just too great.â€
Shilling’s past predictions had mixed results. The economist forecast the recession that began in December 2007 and warned investors a year earlier that residential real estate was in a bubble that would burst. The S&P 500 lost 57 percent between October 2007 and March 2009.
With the S&P 500 at a 12-year low that month, he said that higher unemployment would curb consumer spending, leading to “weaker stocks.†An investor following his advice would have missed the start of an 80 percent rally.
Deflation Board Game
Shilling, a long-time market skeptic who once created a board game to show the dangers of deflation, earned a doctorate degree in economics at Stanford University, according to his website.
Shilling, who predicts that stocks will return 5 percent to 6 percent annually after inflation adjustments over the next decade, says that half of that will come from dividends and not from appreciation. The S&P 500’s dividend yield, currently at 1.92 percent, may rise to at least 3 percent, Shilling said, without specifying a time frame.
“You see a lot of companies being pressured to pay dividends,†he said. “Look at Microsoft. They borrowed money to pay dividends. It tells you that investors want dividends.â€
In September, Microsoft Corp., the world’s largest software maker, sold $4.75 billion of bonds at the lowest coupons on record. A day earlier, the company raised its quarterly dividend by 23 percent to 16 cents and received approval from its board to sell as much as $6 billion in additional debt.
Shilling reiterated his view in an Oct. 4 interview with Bloomberg Radio that looming deflation means U.S. Treasuries are still attractive. He says the yield on the U.S. 30-year bond will drop to 3 percent within the next “couple of years†from about 4.3 percent. Shilling also said he doesn’t see a collapse of the U.S. dollar because of debt problems in Europe.
“The dollar is probably going to strengthen,†Shilling said. “We’re going to see increasing problems in Europe, led by Ireland. As a result, we’re seeing a rally in the dollar.â€
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-1 ... onomy.html
This guy has been a perma bear since I started reading his columns in Forbes two decades ago ..
Gary Shilling Sees `Significant' Stock Selloff Within 12 Months By Rita Nazareth
Gary Shilling, who predicted the U.S. housing collapse, says the stock market is overvalued and foresees a “significant†selloff within a year as the Federal Reserve fails to stimulate economic growth.
“The earlier QE1 didn’t and I don’t think this will, either. The economy is weak and it doesn’t take very much of a shock to push it into negative territory. I don’t think that’s enough to justify where stocks are now.â€
Shilling, who predicts real gross domestic product growth of 2 percent “and maybe less in the next couple of years,†said the government is out of options for fixing the economy.
No Magic Bullet
“There’s not much that can be done,†said Shilling. “There isn’t any magic bullet. There isn’t anything in my view that’s going to return us to the solid days of the 80s and 90s when consumers were spending freely. I don’t think that’s going to come back. The need to deleverage is just too great.â€
Shilling’s past predictions had mixed results. The economist forecast the recession that began in December 2007 and warned investors a year earlier that residential real estate was in a bubble that would burst. The S&P 500 lost 57 percent between October 2007 and March 2009.
With the S&P 500 at a 12-year low that month, he said that higher unemployment would curb consumer spending, leading to “weaker stocks.†An investor following his advice would have missed the start of an 80 percent rally.
Deflation Board Game
Shilling, a long-time market skeptic who once created a board game to show the dangers of deflation, earned a doctorate degree in economics at Stanford University, according to his website.
Shilling, who predicts that stocks will return 5 percent to 6 percent annually after inflation adjustments over the next decade, says that half of that will come from dividends and not from appreciation. The S&P 500’s dividend yield, currently at 1.92 percent, may rise to at least 3 percent, Shilling said, without specifying a time frame.
“You see a lot of companies being pressured to pay dividends,†he said. “Look at Microsoft. They borrowed money to pay dividends. It tells you that investors want dividends.â€
In September, Microsoft Corp., the world’s largest software maker, sold $4.75 billion of bonds at the lowest coupons on record. A day earlier, the company raised its quarterly dividend by 23 percent to 16 cents and received approval from its board to sell as much as $6 billion in additional debt.
Shilling reiterated his view in an Oct. 4 interview with Bloomberg Radio that looming deflation means U.S. Treasuries are still attractive. He says the yield on the U.S. 30-year bond will drop to 3 percent within the next “couple of years†from about 4.3 percent. Shilling also said he doesn’t see a collapse of the U.S. dollar because of debt problems in Europe.
“The dollar is probably going to strengthen,†Shilling said. “We’re going to see increasing problems in Europe, led by Ireland. As a result, we’re seeing a rally in the dollar.â€
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-1 ... onomy.html
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Re: Gary Shilling
by winston » Tue Nov 16, 2010 7:28 pm
Nine Causes of Global Slow Growth
In The Age of Deleveraging, Gary notes that with deleveraging comes slow economic growth, and he details nine reasons why real GDP will rise only about 2% annually in the years ahead— far below the 3.3% growth it takes just to keep the unemployment rate stable. Those nine reasons include:
1. U.S. consumers will shift from a 25 year borrowing-and-spending binge to a saving spree. This will spread abroad as American consumers curtail the imports of the goods and services many foreign nations depend on for economic growth.
2. Financial deleveraging will reverse the trend that financed much global growth in recent years.
3. Increased government regulation and involvement in major economies will stifle innovation and reduce efficiency.
4. Low commodity prices will limit spending by commodity-producing lands.
5. Developed countries are moving toward fiscal restraint.
6. Rising protectionism will slow, even eliminate global growth.
7. The housing market will be weak due to excess inventories and loss of investment appeal.
8. Deflation will curtail spending as buyers anticipate lower prices.
9. State and local governments will contract.
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/j ... aging.aspx
In The Age of Deleveraging, Gary notes that with deleveraging comes slow economic growth, and he details nine reasons why real GDP will rise only about 2% annually in the years ahead— far below the 3.3% growth it takes just to keep the unemployment rate stable. Those nine reasons include:
1. U.S. consumers will shift from a 25 year borrowing-and-spending binge to a saving spree. This will spread abroad as American consumers curtail the imports of the goods and services many foreign nations depend on for economic growth.
2. Financial deleveraging will reverse the trend that financed much global growth in recent years.
3. Increased government regulation and involvement in major economies will stifle innovation and reduce efficiency.
4. Low commodity prices will limit spending by commodity-producing lands.
5. Developed countries are moving toward fiscal restraint.
6. Rising protectionism will slow, even eliminate global growth.
7. The housing market will be weak due to excess inventories and loss of investment appeal.
8. Deflation will curtail spending as buyers anticipate lower prices.
9. State and local governments will contract.
http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/j ... aging.aspx
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: Gary Shilling
by winston » Wed Jan 26, 2011 8:05 am
Birds of the same feather flock together ...
GARY SHILLING: 9 BUYS & 9 SELLS by John Mauldin
In 2009 in his forecast issue he suggested 13 investment ideas, all of which were profitable by the end of the year.
Last year he gave us 16 which the large majority hit the mark. It is not unusual for Gary to give us over 75 charts and tables in his monthly letters along with his commentary, which makes his thinking unusually clear and accessible.
Gary was among the first to point out the problems with the subprime market and predict the housing and credit crises. His track record in this decade has been quite good.
1. Buy Treasury Bonds.
2. Buy Selected Income-Producing Securities.
3. Buy Small Luxuries.
4. Buy the U.S. Dollar, especially against the euro.
5. Buy Eurodollar Futures.
6. Buy Selected Health Care Providers and Medical Office Buildings.
7. Buy Rental Apartments.
8. Buy Productivity Enhancers.
9. Buy North American Energy.
10. Sell Home Builders and Related Companies.
11. If you plan to sell your house, second home or investment houses any time soon, do so yesterday.
12. Sell Selected Big-Ticket Consumer Discretionary Equities.
13. Sell Consumer Lenders.
14. Sell Medium and Smaller Banks
15. Sell Junk Securities.
16. Sell Developing Country Stocks and Bonds. economies
17. Sell Selected Commodities. .
18. Sell Many Old Tech Capital Equipment Producers.
http://pragcap.com/gary-shilling-9-buys-9-sells
GARY SHILLING: 9 BUYS & 9 SELLS by John Mauldin
In 2009 in his forecast issue he suggested 13 investment ideas, all of which were profitable by the end of the year.
Last year he gave us 16 which the large majority hit the mark. It is not unusual for Gary to give us over 75 charts and tables in his monthly letters along with his commentary, which makes his thinking unusually clear and accessible.
Gary was among the first to point out the problems with the subprime market and predict the housing and credit crises. His track record in this decade has been quite good.
1. Buy Treasury Bonds.
2. Buy Selected Income-Producing Securities.
3. Buy Small Luxuries.
4. Buy the U.S. Dollar, especially against the euro.
5. Buy Eurodollar Futures.
6. Buy Selected Health Care Providers and Medical Office Buildings.
7. Buy Rental Apartments.
8. Buy Productivity Enhancers.
9. Buy North American Energy.
10. Sell Home Builders and Related Companies.
11. If you plan to sell your house, second home or investment houses any time soon, do so yesterday.
12. Sell Selected Big-Ticket Consumer Discretionary Equities.
13. Sell Consumer Lenders.
14. Sell Medium and Smaller Banks
15. Sell Junk Securities.
16. Sell Developing Country Stocks and Bonds. economies
17. Sell Selected Commodities. .
18. Sell Many Old Tech Capital Equipment Producers.
http://pragcap.com/gary-shilling-9-buys-9-sells
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Re: Gary Shilling
by winston » Wed May 11, 2011 6:53 am
GARY SHILLING’S 11 INVESTMENT THEMES by Cullen Roche
Gary Shilling’s Insights Newsletter is always full of interesting market commentary. While he’s been excessively bearish on the equity market in recent years, Shilling has nailed the overall macro outlook including the weak economic outlook, bear market in housing and the debt deflation environment.
His latest monthly newsletter contains some good macro investment themes for the investor who is not overly enthusiastic about the economic backdrop:
Treasury bonds (favorable)
Treasurys have rallied as a safe haven in a sea of trouble. Slowing growth and looming deflation will also favor Treasurys. These are available through security brokers, banks and www.treasurydirect.gov as well as via ETFs and futures contracts. Standard & Poor’s warned of a possible downgrade of Treasurys if the deficit isn’t seriously addressed until after the 2012 election, but the market dismissed the threat promptly.
After failing to call the collapses in Enron, Worldcom and subprime mortgages, rating agencies have little credibility. Inflation fears are nearly universal, but commodity inflation is unlikely to spawn a wage-price spiral given high unemployment and ample global capacity. Also, both agricultural and industrial commodity prices may have broken (see Commodities below).
Income-producing stocks (favorable)
Included are utilities, drugs and telecoms with high, safe and rising dividends. Also, master limited partnerships. They can be purchased individually or through ETFs.
The dollar vs. the euro and the yen. Also the Dollar Index (favorable)
The eurozone remains in deep trouble and the buck is the world’s safe haven. The international intervention against the yen on March 18 may have marked its high water mark. Implement this theme with futures contracts and ETFs on the dollar index as well as put options. With almost everyone dumping on the dollar, it may soon rally, especially against the euro.
The dollar vs. Australia dollar (favorable)
Australia has become a Chinese colony as the island continent’s minerals are dug up and sent to China. And China is in the “stop†phase of her stop-go economic policy. Implement this theme with futures.
Eurodollar futures (favorable)
This theme depends on the Fed continuing to keep rates flat in the face of an uncertain economy, but this is becoming less certain beyond late 2011. Big moves in eurodollar prices are small in absolute terms, so an investor needs the leverage of futures contracts to make meaningful money. Calls on the futures are also available.
Rental apartments (favorable)
Rental apartments are gaining favor by those who can’t afford home ownership and are discouraged by falling house prices. REIT prices seem overblown, but direct ownership of rental apartments may still be attractive.
North American energy (favorable)
As a nation, the U.S. has decided to reduce dependence on imported energy from high-risk areas such as Venezuela, Africa, Russia and, especially, the Middle East. We like conventional energy investments including natural gas. New nuclear facilities may be postponed in the wake of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan. Renewable energy depends heavily on unpredictable government subsidies. Implement with futures, ETFs and individual stocks.
Medical Office Buildings (favorable)
The aging postwar babies, the 2010 health care law and the migration of physicians from private practice to hospital employment will promote robust, steady growth in this real estate sector. Implement with REITs and direct ownership. See “The Outlook For Health Care and Medical Office Buildings,†page 30.
Sell your house, second home or investment single-family houses yesterday, if you plan to do so any time soon (unfavorable)
Excess inventories are likely to push prices down another 20%. See “Still Home Sick,†page 1.
Sell homebuilders in view of the deteriorating housing outlook. See “Still Home Sick,†page 1. Developing country stocks (unfavorable)
China is likely to have a hard landing. Implement with ETFs on China related stocks.
Commodities (unfavorable)
The commodity bubble may be beginning to break as others join us in thinking about a hard landing in China, falling U.S. house prices and troubles in Japan and the eurozone. Oil may be the exception with Middle East uncertainty. Implement with stocks, ETFs and futures. We’re short copper and sugar.
Source: Cullen Roche, Pragmatic Capitalism, May 4, 2011.
http://pragcap.com/gary-shillings-11-investment-themes
Gary Shilling’s Insights Newsletter is always full of interesting market commentary. While he’s been excessively bearish on the equity market in recent years, Shilling has nailed the overall macro outlook including the weak economic outlook, bear market in housing and the debt deflation environment.
His latest monthly newsletter contains some good macro investment themes for the investor who is not overly enthusiastic about the economic backdrop:
Treasury bonds (favorable)
Treasurys have rallied as a safe haven in a sea of trouble. Slowing growth and looming deflation will also favor Treasurys. These are available through security brokers, banks and www.treasurydirect.gov as well as via ETFs and futures contracts. Standard & Poor’s warned of a possible downgrade of Treasurys if the deficit isn’t seriously addressed until after the 2012 election, but the market dismissed the threat promptly.
After failing to call the collapses in Enron, Worldcom and subprime mortgages, rating agencies have little credibility. Inflation fears are nearly universal, but commodity inflation is unlikely to spawn a wage-price spiral given high unemployment and ample global capacity. Also, both agricultural and industrial commodity prices may have broken (see Commodities below).
Income-producing stocks (favorable)
Included are utilities, drugs and telecoms with high, safe and rising dividends. Also, master limited partnerships. They can be purchased individually or through ETFs.
The dollar vs. the euro and the yen. Also the Dollar Index (favorable)
The eurozone remains in deep trouble and the buck is the world’s safe haven. The international intervention against the yen on March 18 may have marked its high water mark. Implement this theme with futures contracts and ETFs on the dollar index as well as put options. With almost everyone dumping on the dollar, it may soon rally, especially against the euro.
The dollar vs. Australia dollar (favorable)
Australia has become a Chinese colony as the island continent’s minerals are dug up and sent to China. And China is in the “stop†phase of her stop-go economic policy. Implement this theme with futures.
Eurodollar futures (favorable)
This theme depends on the Fed continuing to keep rates flat in the face of an uncertain economy, but this is becoming less certain beyond late 2011. Big moves in eurodollar prices are small in absolute terms, so an investor needs the leverage of futures contracts to make meaningful money. Calls on the futures are also available.
Rental apartments (favorable)
Rental apartments are gaining favor by those who can’t afford home ownership and are discouraged by falling house prices. REIT prices seem overblown, but direct ownership of rental apartments may still be attractive.
North American energy (favorable)
As a nation, the U.S. has decided to reduce dependence on imported energy from high-risk areas such as Venezuela, Africa, Russia and, especially, the Middle East. We like conventional energy investments including natural gas. New nuclear facilities may be postponed in the wake of the earthquake and tsunami in Japan. Renewable energy depends heavily on unpredictable government subsidies. Implement with futures, ETFs and individual stocks.
Medical Office Buildings (favorable)
The aging postwar babies, the 2010 health care law and the migration of physicians from private practice to hospital employment will promote robust, steady growth in this real estate sector. Implement with REITs and direct ownership. See “The Outlook For Health Care and Medical Office Buildings,†page 30.
Sell your house, second home or investment single-family houses yesterday, if you plan to do so any time soon (unfavorable)
Excess inventories are likely to push prices down another 20%. See “Still Home Sick,†page 1.
Sell homebuilders in view of the deteriorating housing outlook. See “Still Home Sick,†page 1. Developing country stocks (unfavorable)
China is likely to have a hard landing. Implement with ETFs on China related stocks.
Commodities (unfavorable)
The commodity bubble may be beginning to break as others join us in thinking about a hard landing in China, falling U.S. house prices and troubles in Japan and the eurozone. Oil may be the exception with Middle East uncertainty. Implement with stocks, ETFs and futures. We’re short copper and sugar.
Source: Cullen Roche, Pragmatic Capitalism, May 4, 2011.
http://pragcap.com/gary-shillings-11-investment-themes
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Re: Gary Shilling
by winston » Sat Jun 25, 2011 10:46 am
Are Commodity Prices And Inflation About To Retreat? By CHRIS BARTH
“I just got back from taking care of a bunch of my bee hives, and I got stung probably 20 or 30 times. But I don’t think Bernanke is getting stung right now,†Gary Shilling told CNBC’s Fast Money last night.
The doom and gloom economist is almost as well known for presenting friends with homemade honey as he is famous for his considerably less sweet view of the economy.
http://blogs.forbes.com/chrisbarth/2011 ... o-retreat/
“I just got back from taking care of a bunch of my bee hives, and I got stung probably 20 or 30 times. But I don’t think Bernanke is getting stung right now,†Gary Shilling told CNBC’s Fast Money last night.
The doom and gloom economist is almost as well known for presenting friends with homemade honey as he is famous for his considerably less sweet view of the economy.
http://blogs.forbes.com/chrisbarth/2011 ... o-retreat/
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: Gary Shilling
by winston » Sat Aug 06, 2011 10:26 am
This guy has been a perma bear since I started reading his articles in Forbes more than 2 decades ago. I'm surprised that he's now asking you to now sell your US home, even after it has dropped 50% and possibly more if valued by another currency. Who am I to disagree with an "expert" ?
THE GARY SHILLING PORTFOLIO by Cullen Roche
As Treasurys surge and inflation fails to materialize, Gary Shilling’s macro outlook is once again looking prescient.
In his latest “Insight†newsletter he highlighted his portfolio positions in the current environment:
Favorable:
Treasury bonds
Income-producing stocks
The dollar vs. the euro and Australian dollar
Dollar index
Eurodollar futures
Rental apartments
North American energy
Medical office buildings
Unfavorable:
Sell your house, second home or investment single family houses yesterday, if you plan to do so any time soon.
Sell homebuilders
Developing country stocks
Commodities
Sell US Major and regional banks.
Source: A Gary Shilling and Co.
http://pragcap.com/the-gary-shilling-portfolio
THE GARY SHILLING PORTFOLIO by Cullen Roche
As Treasurys surge and inflation fails to materialize, Gary Shilling’s macro outlook is once again looking prescient.
In his latest “Insight†newsletter he highlighted his portfolio positions in the current environment:
Favorable:
Treasury bonds
Income-producing stocks
The dollar vs. the euro and Australian dollar
Dollar index
Eurodollar futures
Rental apartments
North American energy
Medical office buildings
Unfavorable:
Sell your house, second home or investment single family houses yesterday, if you plan to do so any time soon.
Sell homebuilders
Developing country stocks
Commodities
Sell US Major and regional banks.
Source: A Gary Shilling and Co.
http://pragcap.com/the-gary-shilling-portfolio
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Re: Gary Shilling
by winston » Wed Dec 21, 2011 7:22 am
The world is ending ! The wold is ending !
GARY SHILLING: PREPARE FOR A GLOBAL RECESSION by Cullen Roche
Gary Shilling of A. Gary Shilling and Co. is warning of an increasingly dire global economic outlook.
Shilling has been one of the more accurate macro forecasters in recent years with excellent calls on US Treasury bonds and a lingering malaise in the USA. He is now becoming increasingly concerned about the global economy.
He says Europe is in the same situation the USA was in 2007 where a financial crisis is worsening an already bleak economic situation.
Shilling says the Euro is possibly heading to parity with the dollar, but he sees a stop at 1.20 in the near-term.
He cites the fact that broad economic exposure to Europe is small in the USA, whereas the financial sector has substantial exposure to the region.
You can watch the full interview below:
http://pragcap.com/gary-shilling-prepar ... -recession
GARY SHILLING: PREPARE FOR A GLOBAL RECESSION by Cullen Roche
Gary Shilling of A. Gary Shilling and Co. is warning of an increasingly dire global economic outlook.
Shilling has been one of the more accurate macro forecasters in recent years with excellent calls on US Treasury bonds and a lingering malaise in the USA. He is now becoming increasingly concerned about the global economy.
He says Europe is in the same situation the USA was in 2007 where a financial crisis is worsening an already bleak economic situation.
Shilling says the Euro is possibly heading to parity with the dollar, but he sees a stop at 1.20 in the near-term.
He cites the fact that broad economic exposure to Europe is small in the USA, whereas the financial sector has substantial exposure to the region.
You can watch the full interview below:
http://pragcap.com/gary-shilling-prepar ... -recession
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Re: Gary Shilling
by winston » Tue Jan 10, 2012 8:03 pm
So what does Mr. Bear market has for you ? And all the bears would recommend each other 
Gary Shilling’s investment themes for 2012 By Prieur du Plessis
John Mauldin’s Outside the Box report this morning highlights Gary Shilling’s take on 2012.
Shilling believes the global economy will be dominated by an era of deleveraging and sees the following causes slowing down growth over the years ahead:
1. U.S. consumers will shift from a 25-year borrowing-and-spending binge to a saving spree. This will spread abroad as American consumers curtail the imports of the goods and services many foreign nations depend on for economic growth.
2. Financial deleveraging will reverse the trend that financed much global growth in recent years.
3. Increased government regulation and involvement in major economies will stifle innovation and reduce efficiency.
4. Low commodity prices will limit spending by commodity-producing lands.
5. Developed countries are moving toward fiscal restraint.
6. Rising protectionism will slow – even eliminate – global growth.
7. The housing market will be weak due to excess inventories and loss of investment appeal.
8. Deflation will curtail spending as buyers anticipate lower prices.
9. State and local governments will contract.
As far as his investment themes for 2012 are concerned, Shillings lists the “attractive†and “unattractive†items below.
Attractive:
• Treasury bonds
• Selected income-producing securities
• Small luxuries
• Consumer staples and foods
• The U.S. dollar, against the euro and commodity currencies
• Selected healthcare providers and medical office buildings
• Rental apartments
• Productivity enhancers
• North American energy producers, ex renewables
Unattractive:
• Developed country stocks
• Homebuilders and related companies
• If you plan to sell your home, second home or investment houses any time soon, do so yesterday
• Selected big-ticket consumer discretionary equities
• Consumer lenders
• Banks
• Junk securities
• Developing country bonds
• Developing country stocks
• Selected commodities
• Many old tech capital equipment producers
Source: John Mauldin’s Outside the Box (via Investors Insight), January 9, 2012.
http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2012 ... pe+Town%29
Gary Shilling’s investment themes for 2012 By Prieur du Plessis
John Mauldin’s Outside the Box report this morning highlights Gary Shilling’s take on 2012.
Shilling believes the global economy will be dominated by an era of deleveraging and sees the following causes slowing down growth over the years ahead:
1. U.S. consumers will shift from a 25-year borrowing-and-spending binge to a saving spree. This will spread abroad as American consumers curtail the imports of the goods and services many foreign nations depend on for economic growth.
2. Financial deleveraging will reverse the trend that financed much global growth in recent years.
3. Increased government regulation and involvement in major economies will stifle innovation and reduce efficiency.
4. Low commodity prices will limit spending by commodity-producing lands.
5. Developed countries are moving toward fiscal restraint.
6. Rising protectionism will slow – even eliminate – global growth.
7. The housing market will be weak due to excess inventories and loss of investment appeal.
8. Deflation will curtail spending as buyers anticipate lower prices.
9. State and local governments will contract.
As far as his investment themes for 2012 are concerned, Shillings lists the “attractive†and “unattractive†items below.
Attractive:
• Treasury bonds
• Selected income-producing securities
• Small luxuries
• Consumer staples and foods
• The U.S. dollar, against the euro and commodity currencies
• Selected healthcare providers and medical office buildings
• Rental apartments
• Productivity enhancers
• North American energy producers, ex renewables
Unattractive:
• Developed country stocks
• Homebuilders and related companies
• If you plan to sell your home, second home or investment houses any time soon, do so yesterday
• Selected big-ticket consumer discretionary equities
• Consumer lenders
• Banks
• Junk securities
• Developing country bonds
• Developing country stocks
• Selected commodities
• Many old tech capital equipment producers
Source: John Mauldin’s Outside the Box (via Investors Insight), January 9, 2012.
http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2012 ... pe+Town%29
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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winston - Billionaire Boss
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