Jim Rogers 01 (May 08 - May 10)

[millionairemind]

Tks W. Its good to have you around with all the historical information

So he took the wild ride all the way to 6000pts and back to 2700pts without taking profit? Guess he can do that cos' he does not need any money now..

Agree with your strategy of trailing stops. Never give back the profits that the mkt has given you

[Niczach]

Perhaps he made money from he seminar

Code: Select all

About 200 people -- a full house -- paid as much as 50,000 yuan ($7,300) to hear Rogers speak at the two-hour event. The cheapest ticket was 3,800 yuan. Some approached him for his autograph and photos after the speech.

[helios]

thank you Niczach, interesting article quoted from Jim Rogers, right?

MM, u even put e reporter contacts in e article ...

罗杰斯:将更多买A股 但不买铜锌
2006年06月26日 09:46:49 　来源：上海证券报

杰姆·罗杰斯又回来了。

在看空西方股票市场的同时，罗杰斯肯定地指出，中国的A股市场已经从2005年夏天的低谷中走了出来，未来的几年将会逐渐好转，一些A股股票将会表现得相当不错。

相比其他行业，罗杰斯更加看好旅游、农业、能源、航空等行业的股票。同时，他也指出，房地产行业将面临调整，因此这一行业的股票并不被他看好。>>> good feelings abt tourism, agriculture, energy, airlines stocks.

罗杰斯表示，目前他已经买进了一些中国股票，未来还会买得更多。但是，他也建议投资者，中国的A股市场短期内不可能会上涨60%%以上，因此不需要立刻就把钱都投进来。

同时，罗杰斯也提醒，尽管中国的股票市场在未来几年内会成为全世界最好的股票市场之一，但是如果全世界的股市都出现下跌，中国的股市也会随之下跌。但可以肯定的是，中国的股票市场跌幅会比其他市场小得多。

　　商品牛市有望持续至2014年 (bullish sentiments till 2014year)

罗杰斯表示，虽然全球商品的供应不断下降，但需求却在不断上升，这是造成本轮商品牛市的一个重要原因。根据历史经验来看，最短的商品牛市持续了15年，一般都在20年左右。以此判断，始于1999年的商品牛市，将会一直持续，预计在2014年至2022年结束。

罗杰斯还指出，从1972年以后开始出现这样一个趋势：全球农产品的供应在下降，但是对它的需求却在不断增加，库存越来越少，供需开始出现紧张。这表明，未来农产品将会有一个大的牛市。

“黄金价格将涨过1000美元以上。如果考虑通货膨胀，最高可能会涨到2000美元。”罗杰斯指出。除了继续持有原来手中的黄金外，他在一两周前又买进了更多的黄金。他建议，黄金的持有者们不要抛掉手中的黄金，因为未来黄金价格会涨得更高。

对于近期铜市的震荡，罗杰斯解释为：铜经历的是一种正常状况下的价格回调，但它仍处在牛市中。但是对于糖，他语气坚定地表示，“糖肯定会是一个牛市，它的价格将长期走高。”

对玉米价格的未来走势他表示出了乐观。“另外，投资者还可以买进糖、咖啡、银等一些价格目前处于低位的商品，因为它们的上涨空间还很大。”

　　"中国部分房地产投资商可能在一两年内会破产”，罗杰斯指出，房地产投资商中的一些人已经遇到了问题，政府现在正在非常明智地采取措施，来遏制房产的投机。 >>> not wise to speculate in china property.

关于房产价格，他认为，即使现在中国房地产价格还没有下降，将来肯定会下降。“但北京和上海的房产价格将会持续多年保持高涨，至少在5年之内不会下降。” >>> BJ & SH property prices will not fall for e next 5 years.

美国巨额债务将导致美元严重贬值

尽管美元在过去60年一直是全球的储备货币，但罗杰斯认为，这一点正在变化，“美元现在出了很大的问题。”他指出，美国从1987年就是负债国，现在20年过去了，美国欠世界其他国家8万亿美元。>>> Since 1987, US has "owned" other countries $US8,000Billons. WOW: Is this a fact?

“我们债务缠身，我们是历史上出现最大的一个负债国，这个数字确实很吓人。但更吓人的是，美国的外债每15个月就会增长1万亿美元，实际上五年后美国的情况还会变得更加糟糕。”

为此，他认为，美元将会严重贬值。“我们应该尽可能地持有人民币，因为人民币是我所知道的现在最稳健的货币之一。我也希望能买人民币，但我是一个外国人，这么做不容易。但是这一点也会发生变化，中国会在可预见的未来开放货币，让它变成可转换的。” >>> he proclaimed to support RMB currency, as times might change.

[winston]

Avoid U.S. Dollar, Buy Commodities, Jim Rogers Says (Update2)
By Zhang Shidong
avoid the dolla
June 30 (Bloomberg) -- Investors should sell the US Dollar and buy commodities, which is the ``best investment'' for this year, said Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings.

Avoid the dollar ``at all costs,'' Rogers said at the opening of an investment club in Shanghai today. ``Agricultural prices have much higher to go over the next decade. We have a shortage of everything including seeds.''

The U.S. currency has slipped 7.6 percent against the euro and 5.1 percent versus the yen this year as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to stave off a U.S. economic recession. Oil prices in New York have doubled in the past 12 months, while gold futures jumped 41 percent.

Rogers, who put his New York house on the market in 2006 and now lives in Singapore, said last October he planned to shift all his assets out of the dollar. He predicted last month the currency's decline would pause in the second quarter because it was overdone.

Rogers said May 8 he expected a ``nice rally in the American dollar because so many have been bearish on the American dollar, including me.'' On May 14 he recommended investors use the dollar's rally as an opportunity to buy the Japanese yen and Swiss franc.

The dollar traded at 105.99 yen at 6:37 a.m. in London from 106.13 late in New York on June 27, when it fell to a three-week low of 105.87. Against the euro, it was at $1.5792 from $1.5794, the lowest since June 9.

``The best investments in 2008 are commodities and natural resources,'' said Rogers today. In April 2006 he correctly predicted oil would reach $100 a barrel and gold $1,000 an ounce. Oil reached a record $142.99 a barrel on June 27.

[LenaHuat]

I think Jim Rogers will be appearing with his family on MediaCorp Channel 8's 前线追踪 Frontline at 2230 2morrow. He's now a school volunteer. Can any1 please confirm??

[Niczach]

ya tomorrow



10:30 PM Current Affairs 时事节目 前线追踪 Frontline ( 时事节目Current Affairs )


《司机苦遇霸王客》: 根据调查显示，德士司机遇到的霸王乘客愈来愈多。政府日前修订公共交通理事会法令加重罚款 ，来阻吓这种无良行为。霸王乘客到底有多可恶？加重惩罚就能解决问题吗？德士司机现身说法，道出被欺诈，甚至打枪的悲惨遭遇。《前线追踪》追踪报道。编导: 黄良辉 《 外籍家长拼学额》: 国际著名美国投资大师杰姆. 罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)日前和太太一起成为南洋小学的“家长义工”，再度成为媒体的焦点。已经成为新加坡永久居民的罗杰斯一心希望5岁的女儿能进入本地这所名校。其他一些学校也发现有外地家长为了子女而当义工、拼学额。一些外来家长大有来头，能为本地教育事业作出什么贡献？本地家长又有什么看法？《前线追踪》将为您深入报道。编导: 邱欣连

Taxi Fare Cheats: The number of taxi fare cheats has been on the rise. To stamp out the problem that has dogged many cab drivers here, the Public Transport Council has raised the fine and penalties for such offences. How serious is the problem? Frontline will speak to taxi drivers to get a first hand account on the situation. Producer: Wong Liang Wee Foreign Parent Volunteers Renowned American investment guru Jim Rogers hit the local headlines recently when he and his wife became parent volunteers so that their five-year-old daughter can stand a better chance of getting into Nanyang Primary School. Other popular schools are also seeing more foreign parents performing voluntary service in a bid to secure a place for their children. How will this affect the Singaporean kid's chance of getting into these schools? Frontline investigates. Producer: Dawn Khoo

[millionairemind]

罗杰斯：以后只对英文好的人谈陆股

（台湾） (2008-07-20)

（联合早报网讯）据台湾中时电子报报道，“B股、H股、S股等都比A股便宜，我为什么要去买A股？只有傻瓜才会这么做！”投资大师罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)日前接受媒体独家专访时表示，自己从来没有买过A股，也从没有说过买过A股这样的话。他并表示，以后只对英文熟练及理解他的人谈中国股市。

　　　罗杰斯说，“我已经解释了很多次了，我一直买的是B股、H股、S股，以及在美国买中国公司发行的ADR，这是因为它们一直都比A股便宜！我为什么还要去买更贵的A股呢？”

　　　在7月9日于海南举行的一场会议中，罗杰斯面对媒体对其A股投资收益的质疑时，首次表示自己从未买入A股。此言一出，中国股民一片譁然：对中国股市一路唱多、令无数中国股迷顶礼膜拜的传奇投资大师，竟然根本没有买过A股？引起中国股民强烈反弹。

　　　近日，罗杰斯接受大陆“红周刊”以书面回答独家专访。访谈中，罗杰斯表示，中国股市总有一天(罗杰斯电子邮件中，将“总有一天”的英文单词大写加以强调)会达到一万点，“难道你不认为中国会有一个伟大的将来吗？我已经解释过无数次了，中国在21世纪将成为世界上最伟大的国家。现在距离21世纪结束还有92年，如果我的判断正确的话，中国股市在本世纪会有非常好的表现！”

　　　但他强调，自己从未说过“2008年7月是买入A股的好时机”。

　　　针对罗杰斯曾在2007年说过中国股市会牛80年，但是2008年见到的却是一个熊市，罗杰斯再度否认，他表示，“我没有说过这样的话。一定是翻译得不正确。”

　　　而有人认为他频繁出入中国，又是办讲座、又是推荐书，媒体曝光率很高，俨然一副“娱乐明星”，罗杰斯说，“我不认为我是一个娱乐明星，我一直是一个向大家解释投资的教授。我无法控制所发生的一切，与这些不理解我、扭曲我的意思的人打交道实在令人厌恶。”

　　　至于目前中国大多数股民都被套，什么才是当下的投资建议？罗杰斯表示，我不知道他们都买了什么股票，也不知道他们所买股票的原因，因此老生常谈：永远不要在股市繁荣、人们对此无比兴奋的时刻买入股票；当人们都在拒绝或者抛售股票时，再去买股票。

[winston]

Investment superstar Jim Rogers says U.S. interest rates will increase for years, thanks to the Federal Reserve's easy monetary policy.

In a wide-ranging and exclusive interview with Moneynews, Rogers says that the Fed may temporarily be able to hold the line on short-term rates but that, ultimately, the entire yield curve is headed higher.

On another subject, Rogers reiterates that the Treasury Department and Fed are foolish to prop up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

"They should have let them go bankrupt," he says.

"Anybody who can read a prospectus can see the companies were over-leveraged, over-extended, and in trouble. A lot of people shorted these things because they could see the problems."

But the government is stepping in. "So now you have 300 million Americans on the hook for $5 trillion of debt that some crooks and incompetents put together," Rogers says.

– NewsMax

[winston]

Commodity prospects astoundingly good, Rogers says

Jim Rogers, who in April 2006 correctly predicted oil would reach US$100 (HK$780) a barrel and gold US$1,000 an ounce, said the fundamentals for commodities are ``astoundingly'' good.

The bull market for commodities "has a long way to go,'' said Rogers at an investor conference in Australia. The bull market may end by 2020 based on historical cycles, he said. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index had its biggest monthly decline in 28 years in July reversing course after its best first half in 35 years.

"We are going to have plenty of setbacks in commodities but when they happen please keep your heads about you, do some more homework, and if you decide that thing is still OK I would suggest you might think about buying more commodities,'' Rogers said.

BLOOMBERG

[winston]

Interview with Jim Rogers:- by Keith Fitz-Gerald

The U.S. financial crisis has cut so deep - and the government has taken on so much debt in misguided attempts to bail out such companies as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - that even larger financial shocks are still to come, global investing guru Jim Rogers said in an exclusive interview with Money Morning.

Indeed, the U.S. financial debacle is now so ingrained - and a so-called "Super Crash" so likely - that most Americans alive today won't be around by the time the last of this credit-market mess is finally cleared away - if it ever is, said Rogers.

The end of this crisis "is a long way away," Rogers said. "In fact, it may not be in our lifetimes." During a 40-minute interview during a wealth-management conference in this West Coast Canadian city last month, Rogers also said that:

* U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke should "resign" for the bailout deals he's handed out as he's tried to battle this credit crisis.

* That the U.S. national debt - the roughly $5 trillion held by the public- essentially doubled in the course of a single weekend because of the Fed-led credit crisis bailout deals.

* That U.S. consumers and investors can expect much-higher interest rates - noting that if the Fed doesn't raise borrowing costs, market forces will make that happen.

* And that the average American has no idea just how bad this financial crisis is going to get.

"The next shock is going to be bigger and bigger, still," Rogers said. "The shocks keep getting bigger because we keep propping things up ... [and] bailing everyone out."

Rogers first made a name for himself with The Quantum Fund, a hedge fund that's often described as the first real global investment fund, which he and partner George Soros founded in 1970. Over the next decade, Quantum gained 4,200%, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbed about 50%.

It was after Rogers "retired" in 1980 that the investing masses got to see him in action. Rogers traveled the world (several times), and penned such bestsellers as "Investment Biker" and the recently released "A Bull in China." And he made some historic market calls: Rogers predicted China's meteoric growth a good decade before it became apparent, and he subsequently foretold of the powerful updraft in global commodities prices that's fueled a year-long bull market in the agriculture, energy and mining sectors.

Rogers' candor has made him a popular figure with individual investors, meaning his pronouncements are always closely watched. Here are some of the highlights from the exclusive interview we had with the author and investor, who now makes his home in Singapore:

Keith Fitz-Gerald (Q): Looks like the financial train wreck we talked about earlier this year is happening.

Jim Rogers: There was a train wreck, yes. Two or three - more than one, as you know. [U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S.] Bernanke and his boys both came to the rescue. Which is going to cover things up for a while. And then I don't know how long the rally will last and then we'll be off to the races again. Whether the rally lasts six days or six weeks, I don't know. I wish I did know that sort of thing, but I never do.

(Q): What would Chairman Bernanke have to do to "get it right?"

Rogers: Resign.

(Q): Is there anything else that you think he could do that would be correct other than let these things fail?

Rogers: Well, at this stage, it doesn't seem like he can do it. He could raise interest rates - which he should do, anyway. Somebody should. The market's going to do it whether he does it or not, eventually.

The problem is that he's got all that garbage on his balance sheet now. He has $400 billion of questionable assets owing to the feds on his balance sheet. I mean, he could try to reverse that. He could raise interest rates. Yeah, that's what he could do. That would help. It would cause a shock to the system, but if we don't have the shock now, the shock's going to be much worse later on. Every shock, so far, has been worse than the last shock. Bear Stearns [now part of JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM)] was one thing and then it's Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM), you know, and now Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE).

The next shock's going to be even bigger still. So the shocks keep getting bigger because we keep propping things up and this has been going on at least since Long-Term Capital Management. They've been bailing everyone out and [former Fed Chairman Alan] Greenspan took interest rates down and then he took them down again after the "dot-com bubble" shock, so I guess Bernanke could try to start reversing some of this stuff.

But he has to not just reverse it - he'd have to increase interest rates a lot to make up for it and that's not going to solve the problem, either, because the basic problems are that America's got a horrible tax system, it's got litigation right, left and center, it's got horrible education system, you know, and it's got many, many, many [other] problems that are going to take a while to resolve. If he did at least turn things around - turn some of these policies around - we would have a sharp drop, but at least it would clean out some of the excesses and the system could turn around and start doing better.

But this is academic - he's not going to do it. But again, the best thing for him would be to abolish the Federal Reserve and resign. That'll be the best solution. Is he going to do that? No, of course not. He still thinks he knows what he's doing.

(Q): Earlier this year, when we talked in Singapore, you made the observation that the average American still doesn't know anything's wrong - that anything's happening. Is that still the case?

Rogers: Yes.

(Q): What would you tell the "Average Joe" in no-nonsense terms?

Rogers: I would say that for the last 200 years, America's elected politicians and scoundrels have built up $5 trillion in debt. In the last few weekends, some un-elected officials added another $5 trillion to America's national debt.

Suddenly we're on the hook for another $5 trillion. There have been attempts to explain this to the public, about what's happening with the debt, and with the fact that America's situation is deteriorating in the world.

I don't know why it doesn't sink in. People have other things on their minds, or don't want to be bothered. Too complicated, or whatever.

I'm sure when the [British Empire] declined there were many people who rang the bell and said: "Guys, we're making too many mistakes here in the U.K." And nobody listened until it was too late.

When Spain was in decline, when Rome was in decline, I'm sure there were people who noticed that things were going wrong.

(Q): Many experts don't agree with - at the very least don't understand - the Fed's current strategies. How can our leaders think they're making the right choices? What do you think?

Rogers: Bernanke is a very-narrow-gauged guy. He's spent his whole intellectual career studying the printing of money and we have now given him the keys to the printing presses. All he knows how to do is run them.

Bernanke was [on the record as saying] that there is no problem with housing in America. There's no problem in housing finance. I mean this was like in 2006 or 2005.

(Q): Right.

Rogers: He is the Federal Reserve and the Federal Reserve more than anybody is supposed to be regulating these [financial institutions], so they should have the inside scoop, if nothing else.

(Q): That's problematic.

Rogers: It's mind-boggling. Here's a man who doesn't understand the market, who doesn't understand economics - basic economics. His intellectual career's been spent on the narrow-gauge study of printing money. That's all he knows.

Yes, he's got a PhD, which says economics on it, but economics can be one of 200 different narrow fields. And his is printing money, which he's good at, we know. We've learned that he's ready, willing and able to step in and bail out everybody.

There's this worry [whenever you have a major financial institution that looks ready to fail] that, "Oh my God, we're going to go down, and if we go down, the whole system goes down."

This is nothing new. Whole systems have been taken down before. We've had it happen plenty of times.

(Q): History is littered with failed financial institutions.

Rogers: I know. It's not as though this is the first time it's ever happened. But since [Chairman Bernanke's] whole career is about printing money and studying the Depression, he says: "Okay, got to print some more money. Got to save the day." And, of course, that's when he gets himself in deeper, because the first time you print it, you prop up Institution X, [but] then you got to worry about institution Y and Z.

(Q): And now we've got a dangerous precedent.

Rogers: That's exactly right. And when the next guy calls him up, he's going to bail him out, too.

(Q): What do you think [former Fed Chairman] Paul Volcker thinks about all this?

Rogers: Well, Volcker has said it's certainly beyond the scope of central banking, as he understands central banking.

(Q): That's pretty darn clear.

Rogers: Volcker's been very clear - very clear to me, anyway - about what he thinks of it, and Volcker was the last decent American central banker. We've had couple in our history: Volcker and William McChesney Martin were two.

You know, McChesney Martin was the guy who said the job of a good central banker was to take away the punchbowl when the party starts getting good. Now [the Fed] - when the party starts getting out of control - pours more moonshine in. McChesney Martin would always pull the bowl away when people started getting a little giggly. Now the party's out of control.

(Q): This could be the end of the Federal Reserve, which we talked about in Singapore. This would be the third failure - correct?

Rogers: Yes. We had two central banks that disappeared for whatever reason. This one's going to disappear, too, I say.

(Q): Throughout your career you've had a much-fabled ability to spot unique points in history - inflection points, if you will. Points when, as you put it, somebody puts money in the corner at which you then simply pick up.

Rogers: That's the way to invest, as far as I'm concerned.

(Q): So conceivably, history would show that the highest returns go to those who invest when there's blood in the streets, even if it's their own.

Rogers: Right.

(Q): Is there a point in time or something you're looking for that will signal that the U.S. economy has reached the inflection point in this crisis?

Rogers: Well, yeah, but it's a long way away. In fact, it may not be in our lifetimes. Of course I covered my shorts - my financial shorts. Not all of them, but most of them last week.

So, if you're talking about a temporary inflection point, we may have hit it.

If you look back at previous countries that have declined, you almost always see exchange controls - all sorts of controls - before failure. America is already doing some of that. America, for example, wouldn't let the Chinese buy the oil company, wouldn't let the [Dubai firm] buy the ports, et cetera.

But I'm really talking about full-fledged, all-out exchange controls. That would certainly be a sign, but usually exchange controls are not the end of the story. Historically, they're somewhere during the decline. Then the politicians bring in exchange controls and then things get worse from there before they bottom.

Before World War II, Japan's yen was two to the dollar. After they lost the war, the yen was 500 to the dollar. That's a collapse. That was also a bottom.

These are not predictions for the U.S., but I'm just saying that things have to usually get pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty bad.

It was similar in the United Kingdom. In 1918, the U.K. was the richest, most powerful country in the world. It had just won the First World War, et cetera. By 1939, it had exchange controls and this is in just one generation. And strict exchange controls. They in fact made it an act of treason for people to use anything except the pound sterling in settling debts.

(Q): Treason? Wow, I didn't know that.

Rogers: Yes...an act of treason. It used to be that people could use anything they wanted as money. Gold or other metals. Banks would issue their own currencies. Anything. You could even use other people's currencies.

Things were so bad in the U.K. in the 1930s they made it an act of treason to use anything except sterling and then by '39 they had full-exchange controls. And then, of course, they had the war and that disaster. It was a disaster before the war. The war just exacerbated the problems. And by the mid-70s, the U.K. was bankrupt. They could not sell long-term government bonds. Remember, this is a country that two generations or three generations before had been the richest most powerful country in the world.

Now the only thing that saved the U.K. was the North Sea oil fields, even though Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher likes to take credit, but Margaret Thatcher has good PR. Margaret Thatcher came into office in 1979 and North Sea oil started flowing. And the U.K. suddenly had a huge balance-of-payment surplus.

You know, even if Mother Teresa had come in [as prime minister] in '79, or Joseph Stalin, or whomever had come in 1979 - you know, Jimmy Carter, George Bush, whomever - it still would've been great.

You give me the largest oil field in the world and I'll show you a good time, too. That's what happened.

(Q): What if Thatcher had never come to power?

Rogers: Who knows, because the U.K. was in such disastrous straits when she came in. And that's why she came to power... because it was such a disaster. I'm sure she would've made things better, but short of all that oil, the situation would've continued to decline.

So it may not be in our lifetimes that we'll see the bottom, just given the U.K.'s history, for instance.

(Q): That's going to be terrifying for individual investors to think about.

Rogers: Yeah. But remember that America had such a magnificent and gigantic position of dominance that deterioration will take time. You know, you don't just change that in a decade or two. It takes a lot of hard work by a lot of incompetent people to change the situation. The U.K. situation I just explained... that decline was over 40 or 50 years, but they had so much money they could have continued to spiral downward for a long time.

Even Zimbabwe, you know, took 10 or 15 years to really get going into its collapse, but Robert Mugabe came into power in 1980 and, as recently as 1995, things still looked good for Zimbabwe. But now, of course, it's a major disaster.

That's one of the advantages of Singapore. The place has an astonishing amount of wealth and only four million people. So even if it started squandering it in 2008, which they may be, it's going to take them forever to do so.

(Q): Is there a specific signal that this is "over?"

Rogers: Sure... when our entire U.S. cabinet has Swiss bank accounts. Linked inside bank accounts. When that happens, we'll know we're getting close because they'll do it even after it's illegal - after America's put in the exchange controls.

(Q): They'll move their own money.

Rogers: Yeah, because you look at people like the Israelis and the Argentineans and people who have had exchange controls - the politicians usually figured it out and have taken care of themselves on the side.

(Q): We saw that in South Africa and other countries, for example, as people tried to get their money out.

Rogers: Everybody figures it out, eventually, including the politicians. They say: "You know, others can't do this, but it's alright for us." Those days will come. I guess when all the congressmen have foreign bank accounts, we'll be at the bottom.

But we've got a long way to go, yet.