Doug Kass

Doug Kass

Postby winston » Wed Jan 11, 2012 9:31 pm

Kass: 10 reasons for U.S. stocks to rally By Prieur du Plessis

I reported two weeks ago on “Doug Kass’s 15 surprises for 2012”.

Hedge fund manager Kass of Seabreeze Partners is a familiar and respected name on this blog, and readers are always keen to learn his views.

I therefore thought his 10 reasons for the U.S. stock market to rally might also be of interest. The full article appears on The Street and I urge you to read it in its entirety.

A summary is provided below.

Kass said: “I have rarely been accused of being an economic/stock market cheerleader, but I believe the U.S. stock market will surprise to the upside in the near term for the following fundamental, technical and sentiment reasons:”


1. Poorly positioned market participants

Watch not what they say; watch what they do. And the dominant investors (retail and institutional/hedge funds) are underinvested and/or skewed disproportionately in a “flight to safety” into fixed income over equities.


2. Technical breakout

[Breaking out of the recent trading range] will encourage technically based chasers of market momentum.


3. Big rotation

Don’t market historians tell us that a better tone for the financial sector is a necessary condition and reagent for a better stock market? Yet that turnaround of the financial continues to be treated with skepticism by most.


4. Misplaced preoccupation with Europe: The European situation has improved. Timid policy response is moving toward “shock and awe” — yet investors are still scared to wake up every morning to rising sovereign bond yields, and that fear is keeping them sidelined.


5. Recent earnings cuts discounted

Memo to negative strategists: The market has likely already discounted (with a 15% decline in price-to-earnings ratios in 2011) a diminished profits outlook.


6. Likely regime change in the U.S.

Though the odds of a Republican presidency have improved, most investors are ignoring this “market friendly” development that could occur within the next 12 months.


7. Better economic data

The prospects of a self-sustaining U.S. economic recovery have been more solidified in the past six weeks. (I continue to be of the view that ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan’s recession call is wrong-footed.)


8. Contained geopolitical risks

We should monitor but not let geopolitical issues predominate our investing thinking.


9. Market-friendly rates

Low interest rates around the world in 2012-13 mean that any model based on interest rates results in a very inexpensive market valuation. (I continue to expect a massive reallocation trade out of bonds and into stocks.)


10. Lower volatility

Crazy market swings scared off and alienated investors over the past year. Shouldn’t the recent collapse in volatility help bring back investor confidence?

Source: Doug Kass, The Street, January 10, 2012.



Read more: http://www.investmentpostcards.com/#ixzz1j9jhdnng
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Re: Doug Kass

Postby winston » Tue Apr 10, 2012 7:56 am

Sell in April and Go Away By Doug Kass

NEW YORK (Real Money) -- In mid-March, I lowered my fair market value for the S&P 500 to 1335.

While a muddle-through backdrop of only 1.5% to 2.0% real GDP and modest (+5%) profit growth remains my baseline expectation, the market's risk/reward remains unfavorable.

My view was then and remains that:

â–  market participants are incorrectly assessing the trajectory of domestic economic growth (it is slowing, not accelerating);

â–  the political backdrop is not market- or business-friendly, with the growing likelihood that Obama will regain the presidency and that the Republican Party will likely control the House and Senate (gridlock and failure to address our fiscal deficit holds risks to the capital markets);

â–  a monetary cliff is approaching at June's end ("The Liquidity Rally Is Over");

â–  a fiscal cliff is a threat at year-end;

â–  there remains risk of further debt contagion in Europe (as risks in Italy and Spain have resurfaced); and

â–  a meaningful reallocation out of bonds into stocks is no longer likely.


I also have viewed the market's technicals as poor, and I still do:
â–  new highs are weakening;
â–  volume is tepid;
â–  transports and the Russell 2000 are trailing; and
â–  breadth is lagging, leading to a growing dependency on a handful of stocks in the NBA -- nothing but Apple (AAPL) -- market.

Many hedge-hoggers with whom I spoke agreed with many of my above concerns but were reluctant to reduce their longs because the market's price momentum was so damn good.

It will be interesting to see how those intellectual bears but practical bulls behave in the days ahead. Regardless of their course of action, my strategy is unequivocal.

Why wait until May when you can sell today?

Sell in April and go away.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11487961 ... L_atb_html
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Re: Doug Kass

Postby winston » Wed May 30, 2012 5:52 am

Time to Be a Bullish Contrarian By Doug Kass


Summary

â–  I have slightly adjusted my S&P 500 fair market value downward from 1485 to 1455, but the market is still about 10% undervalued.

â–  A trading range of 1290 to 1455 seems probable for the balance of 2012.

â–  Reward vs. risk is favorable, with 4.5x more upside than downside.

â–  The world's stock markets are hostages to Greece, but I expect Merkel & Co. to step up.

â–  Successfully containing the eurozone debt crisis (or even evidence that the Greek Democratic Party will forge an election victory) will likely result in a spirited market rally.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11557757 ... L_atb_html
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Re: Doug Kass

Postby winston » Thu Aug 16, 2012 8:33 am

Doug Kass: Why the Market has Hit the High for the Year by Cullen Roche

Doug Kass of Seabreeze Capital was on CNBC yesterday discussing some reasons, why he believes the market has made its high for the year.

In contrast to the Schaeffers Research piece posted yesterday, Kass offers his own set of reasons why the market will fall back to the 1300-1330 area.

The causes (of which his comments on Ryan are particularly interesting):
■ Technicals are becoming negative
■ Transports are lagging
■ Small caps are lagging
■ The VIX is historically low
■ Market is overly optimistic about QE3
■ Paul Ryan will pose a risk to the market, the fiscal cliff scenarios and potential Fed stimulus

Source: CNBC


http://pragcap.com/doug-kass-reasons-wh ... r-the-year
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Re: Doug Kass

Postby winston » Sat Feb 23, 2013 5:30 am

Seabreeze Partners portfolio manager Doug Kass recently told CNBC that what he is seeing right now reminds him of the period just before the crash of 1987

“I’m getting the ‘summer of 1987 feeling’ in the U.S. equity market,” Kass told CNBC, “which means we’re headed for a sharp fall.”


Source: The Trading Report
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Re: Doug Kass

Postby winston » Thu Dec 31, 2015 9:56 pm

15 Surprises Headed Our Way in 2016

By Doug Kass

Source: Zero Hedge

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2015/12 ... y-in-2016/
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Re: Doug Kass

Postby winston » Mon Feb 11, 2019 4:28 pm

Kass: These Are My Top 10 Fears Right Now

All signposts lead me to conclude that a stock market topping process is still very much in play.

By DOUG KASS

Here Is a Top 10 List of Some of My Fears This Weekend:-

1. Domestic economic growth weakens, Chinese growth fails to stabilize and Europe enters a recession.

2. U.S./China fail to agree on trade.

3. President Trump institutes an attack on European Union trade by raising auto tariffs.

4. U.S. Treasury yields fail to ratify an improvement in economic growth.

5. The market leadership of FANG and Apple (AAPL) subsides.

6. Earnings decline in 2019 and valuations fail to expand.

7. The Mueller report jeopardizes the president.

8. A hard and disruptive Brexit.

9. Crude oil supplies spike and oil prices collapse -- taking down the high-yield market.

10. European Central Bank President Draghi is replaced by a hawk.


Source: Real Money

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/investi ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: Doug Kass

Postby winston » Fri Mar 01, 2019 7:23 am

Here’s what hedge-fund manager Doug Kass foresees triggering a one-day stock plunge of 5%

By Barbara Kollmeyer

“A weakening global economic recovery, a faltering corporate profit picture, untenable debt loads, political turmoil (and the risk of an increasingly untethered President) provide an unsound foundation to markets that have had such a spirited rally.”


Source: Market Watch

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what- ... 2019-02-28
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