Trip.com (TCOM); (former Ctrip); HK 9961

[winston]

vested

<Research>Nomura: TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) 2025 Mgmt Guidance Misses Mkt Consensus

TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) was under pressure today after announcing 2024 results.

TRIP.COM-S' 2025 management guidance was weaker than the market consensus, with a non-GAAP gross operating margin guidance of about 28%, below the market's general expectation of 28.5%, Nomura released a research report saying.

TRIP.COM-S' 4Q24 results were better than expected, with revenue rising 23% YoY to RMB12.7 billion, beating the estimations of the market/ the broker by 3%/ 4% respectively, Nomura added.

Therefore, Nomura kept rating at Neutral for Trip.com Group (TCOM.US) with a target price of US$61.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

vested

Citibank raises Trip.com target to US$78 on strong earnings and growth outlook

Citibank said that Trip.com’s (9961) revenue for the fourth quarter surpassed its expectation and maintains a “Buy” rating with a target price of US$78 (HK$608.4).

The travel agency recorded a 23 percent growth in its revenue during the period from 12 months ago, 3.6 percent higher than the investment bank’s expectation, according to the report.

Specifically, accommodation booking revenue and transportation ticketing revenue grew by 33 percent and 16 percent year-on-year, exceeding the bank’s forecast by 2 percent and 3 percent, respectively.

Citibank believes investors will focus on Trip.com’s revenue outlook for this quarter and the full 2025, the performance of domestic and outbound travel, as well as its views on artificial intelligence technology development and shareholder returns.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking ... th-outlook

[winston]

vested

4Q24: Earnings Beat; Continuous Efforts In International Expansion

4Q24 results were better than expected.

4Q24 net revenue rose 23.5% yoy to Rmb12.8b, in line with consensus estimates.

Non-GAAP net profit grew 13.6% yoy to Rmb3b, beating consensus forecasts by 6%.

Net margin shrank 2ppt yoy to 23.8%, in line with consensus estimates.

TCOM guided 1Q25 revenue growth of 14-19% yoy to Rmb13.8b, in line with consensus estimates.

Maintain BUY with a lower target price of HK$630.00 (US$81.00).

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... e=hs_email

[winston]

vested

Trip.com (9961 HK / TCOM US) - Stepping-up overseas expansion

Domestic travel demand remained stable in 4Q24, though impacted by seasonality;
inbound travel and international platforms saw rapid growth

Increasing investment to drive global expansion could weigh on 2025 margins
but should benefit in the long term

Enhancing shareholder returns

We are encouraged by the company announcing a new capital return plan (double FY24’s size), including a USD400m share repurchase program and a USD200m cash
dividend.

Source: OCBC

[winston]

not vested

Trip.com's net profit decreases 0.81 pc

by Helen Zhong

Chinese travel giant Trip.com's (9961) net profit slightly decreased 0.81 percent year-on-year to 4.28 billion yuan (HK$4.64 billion) in the first quarter of 2025 amid the resilient consumer demand.

Its adjusted net profit was 4.19 billion yuan, an increase of 3.28 percent compared to the same period last year.

The company's net revenue grew 16 percent to 13.8 billion yuan, primarily driven by stronger travel demand.

The revenue of accommodation reservation and transportation ticketing rose 23 percent and 8 percent respectively, as outbound hotel and air ticket bookings have grown to more than 120 percent of the pre-Covid level for the same period in 2019, the company said.

Its gross profit was 11.13 billion yuan, an increase of 15.1 percent

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/market/article/302915/

[winston]

vested

China regulator investigates Trip.com over suspected monopolistic practices

Under China's anti-monopoly law, companies can face fines of between 1 percent and 10 percent of their annual sales from the previous year.

Recorded a 16 percent year-on-year surge in third-quarter net revenue, with accommodation reservation revenue increasing 18 percent from the same period in 2024.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/market/article/321597/

[winston]

vested

Trip.com ADR Plummets 17% as CN SAMR Launches Antitrust Investigation

Citi had earlier released a report stating that operators found violating any monopoly agreements or abusing market dominance will be ordered to cease such behaviors, have their illegal gains confiscated, and be fined 1-10% of their previous year's sales revenue, according to China's Anti-Monopoly Law.

If Trip.com is found guilty, the potential fine could range from RMB490 million to RMB4.9 billion (based on estimates of its 2025 domestic and foreign business revenue).

It remains to be seen whether this investigation will affect Trip.com's domestic profit margins or commission rates. The investigation may impact market sentiment before its conclusion.

Source: AASTOCKS Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/analy ... stock-news

[winston]

<Research>Brokers' Latest Views & TPs on TRIP.COM-S After SAMR Launches Anti-Monopoly Investigation

Broker│Investment Rating│Target Price
Goldman Sachs│Buy│HKD706
JPMorgan│Overweight│HKD700
Jefferies│Buy│HKD685


Broker│View

Daiwa│Regulatory uncertainty may dent investment sentiment, but buying opportunities will occur once remedies become clearer.

Goldman Sachs│Past cases suggest that stock price fluctuation may happen in the medium term.

JPMorgan│Valuation will likely be squeezed in the short term, but a new regulatory cycle will be rather unlikely.

UBS│Investors are eyeing the impact of the investigation on the business model.

Jefferies│The fine could be 3-4% of the previous year's local business revenue according to Alibaba and Meituan cases.

Citi│The investigation will affect the sentiment towards TRIP.COM-S until it is completed, but is unlikely to change its industry position.

Haitong Int'l│Valuation is still high, but investors should avoid risks before more information comes to light.

CLSA│TRIP.COM-S may lose exclusive merchant cooperation rights, but it will maintain a strong moat, though it may need more merchant support, which may affect its short-term profit margin.

Nomura│TRIP.COM-S is likely to be found in violation, which may affect its control over hotels and provide opportunities for competitors.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

vested

<Research>JPM Expects TRIP.COM to Face Antitrust Fine of Max. RMB6.2B; Investigation Viewed as Individual Case Rather Than Tightening of Sector-wide Regulation

JPMorgan believed that TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) is being investigated by China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) for alleged monopoly practices based on complaints or evidence, which is an enforcement measure targeting individual companies rather than an overall tightening of industry regulation.

The broker expected TRIP.COM-S' share price to react negatively in the coming days as the market is digesting the potential cash fine and the regulatory uncertainty that may persist for several months.

Related News: Daiwa Holds Constructive View on TRIP.COM-S in Mid-to-Long Term, Expects Clearer Regulatory Measures to Bring Entry Opportunities

Regarding penalties, referencing the provisions of the Anti-Monopoly Law, JPMorgan estimated that TRIP.COM-S will be fined between RMB600 million and RMB6.2 billion.

Meanwhile, the Company's existing monetization mechanisms in China may need adjustment, which could have a more significant impact on fundamentals, including a potential decline in effective commission rates and increased bargaining power for suppliers.

Furthermore, under tightened 'voluntary' and transparency requirements, the growth of high-profit value-added services monetization, such as advertising and placements, may slow down.

Therefore, the broker now rated TRIP.COM-S at Overweight, with target prices of $700/ US$90 for TRIP.COM-S' H-shares/ US stock.

Source: AASTOCKS Financial News

[winston]

vested

Trip.com braces for new era of competition with anti-monopoly probe

By Doug Young

The company is being investigated for anti-competitive practices and investments that have given it control of more than 60% of China’s vast online travel market

Trip.com could be forced to end exclusivity practices and sell its investments in rivals as a result of a new anti-monopoly investigation into the company

The investigation is the latest by China’s market regulator into anti-competitive practices by some of the nation’s top internet companies

The probe specifically focuses on the company’s hotel booking operations, which accounted for about 44% of its revenue in the third quarter.

Trip.com frequently requires hotels to enter into exclusive or restrictive agreements, and also uses its clout to lock up huge amounts of room inventory in advance, all to the detriment of rivals.

China’s online travel agency market was worth about $105 billion last year, and is expected to grow quite strongly at an annual rate of about 15% over the next five years, according to a report from Modor Intelligence. Trip.com directly controls about a third of that.

All those various holdings effectively give Trip.com control of more than 60% of the Chinese online travel market. The only other major forces are Meituan at about 20%, and Alibaba’s Fliggy with 10%.

Source: Bamboo Works

https://thebambooworks.com/trip-com-bra ... oly-probe/