not vested
Tencent: Why It’s a BuyBy Robert Guy
Chinese internet giant Tencent (700.HK) has been added to UOB Kay Hian's top picks for June, with the broker seeing around 14% upside.
Here's why Tencent made the list:
We estimate its PC game segment to slightly re-accelerate growth to 11% yoy in 2017 (2016:+8%), driven by new PC games and eSports.
We forecast online gaming revenue to grow 28% yoy in 2017, driven by a 65% yoy growth in mobile gaming.
We forecast a 49% yoy growth in Tencent’s advertising revenue in 2017, benefiting from WeChat being well positioned to capture advertising needs through Moment ads, outpacing the average growth of its Chinese Internet peers.
In 1Q17, the third-party online payment market size was Rmb1.9t. Alipay is still leading the online payment market with a 53.7% share (4Q16: 54.1%), followed by Tenpay’s 39.5% (4Q16: 37.0%).
Tenpay’s mobile payment MAU and average daily payment transactions exceeded 600m in Dec 16. The market expects Tenpay may outpace Alipay in 2018 with a higher growth rate.
We forecast a 123% yoy growth in other revenues (payment and cloud), driven by increasing withdrawal fees, customer conversion, and expanding offline payment scenarios through WeChat Mini Programmes.
We expect the cloud business will continue to show the fastest growth among Tencent’s businesses for a few years and expect operating margin for the segment at negative single digit in 2017.
We model in revenue CAGR of 21% and EPS CAGR of 26% for 2017-20. Our target price of HK$312.00 is based on the SOTP model.
Tencent last traded at HKD273 a share. The stock is up 44% this year.
Source: Barron's Asia
http://www.barrons.com/articles/tencent ... 1496736811
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