Trip.com (TCOM); (former Ctrip); HK 9961

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Trip.com is under anti-monopoly investigation

We estimate the investigation could take c.4-6 months, and the potential penalty is likely around 3-4% of FY25 revenue, based on similar probes of Alibaba and Meituan.

We expect Trip.com’s hotel take rate to dip slightly due to the investigation and revise our hotel revenue forecast from 15% previously to 9% in FY26F.

We believe Trip.com should maintain its leading position in OTA market, given its extensive supplier base, good call centre services and strong user mindshare.

Reiterate Add with a lower TP of HK$605. We remove it from our high conviction list.

Source: CGS

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... C58D3D9A33

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<Research>Citi Expects TRIP.COM-S 4Q25 Results to Be In Line, Drops US Stock TP to US$82 on Survey Impact

Citi Research expected TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) 's 4Q25 revenue and adjusted operating profit to be largely in line with market expectations.

During the traditional peak season in 4Q25, TRIP.COM-S may continue to expand its market share, while its domestic hotel business could benefit from a rebound in average daily rate (ADR) and solid growth in room nights.

The broker lowered its 2026/ 2027 adjusted earnings forecasts by 9%/ 5% each to reflect the potential impact on its domestic hotel business, and dropped its target price for Trip.com Group (TCOM.US) from US$86 to US$82.

Citi Research forecasted the stock price to fluctuate within a range during the antitrust investigation.

Related News: UBS Foresees Trip.com Shr Price to Remain Range-Bound in Near Term as Mkt Has Initially Digested Antitrust Probe Impact

Once the investigation concludes, investors will have clearer visibility on its fundamental outlook.

Based on TRIP.COM-S' industry leading position, the broker kept rating at Buy.

Source: AASTOCKS Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

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TRIP.COM-S Dives ~6%; Official Media: Some Platforms Profiting from Official Free Waitlist

Xinhua News Agency published a commentary yesterday (3rd), pointing out that some platforms are packaging the official free waitlist ticketing function of the 12306 railway website as "paid privileges", launching so-called "acceleration packages", "VIP channels", and "dedicated ticket snatching" services so as to charge extra fees.

When passengers successfully snatch tickets using the waitlist, such platforms attributed it to their "acceleration package"; even if they fail, the "ticket snatching software" bears no responsibility.

The article argued that this model is opaque and misleading, potentially undermining consumer rights, and urged passengers to recognize official channels and avoid unnecessary extra expenses.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

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<Research>BofAS Cuts TRIP.COM-S TP to HKD612, Expects Last Qtr's Adjusted NP to Rise 7% YoY

TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) is set to release its 4Q25 results in March, according to a BofA Securities research report.

In the broker's estimate, TRIP.COM-S' net revenue for the last quarter will have grown by 16% YoY to RMB14.9 billion, exceeding market expectations.

Specifically, revenue from hotel accommodation and transportation ticketing will have increased by 21% and 12% YoY, respectively, marking a slight acceleration on the QoQ basis.

Under non-GAAP standards, TRIP.COM-S is also expected to report a YOY growth of 18% in operating profit to RMB3.3 billion and a YoY rise of 7% in net profit to RMB3.3 billion, in line with market forecasts.

BofA Securities has reiterated a Buy rating on TRIP.COM-S but cut its target price from HKD667 to HKD612.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/analy ... stock-news

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<Results>TRIP.COM-S 2025 NP RMB33.294B, Up 95%

TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) announced its full-year results for the year ended 31 December 2025.

Revenue amounted to RMB62.51 billion, up 17.1% YoY.

Dividend History
Announce Date Event Particular
2025/11/18 3rd Quarterly No Dividend
2025/08/28 Interim No Dividend
2025/05/20 1st Quarterly No Dividend
2025/02/25 Final D:USD 0.3000

Net income surged 95.1% YoY to RMB33.294 billion, with an EPS of RMB50.62.

Nil dividend was declared.

Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 10.6% to RMB18.88 billion.

Adjusted EBITDA margin stood at 30%, compared to 32% in the same period of 2024.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

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Trip.com 4Q25 net profit in line with our estimate

4Q25 total revenue reached Rmb15.4bn (+20.8% yoy), slightly ahead of our expectations, driven by strong growth of its international platform, Trip.com.

4Q25 non-GAAP net profit increased 14.7% yoy to Rmb34.8bn, in line with our forecast.

We expect 1Q26F revenue and non-GAAP net profit to grow by 14.7% and 2.8% yoy, respectively, with non-GAAP NPM of 27.1% (-3.1% pts yoy).

We believe increasing revenue contribution from its international platform will continue to drag OPM in FY26F, but on a smaller scale than in FY25.

We reiterate Add with a lower DCF-based TP of HK$591.

Source: CGS

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... 59CCE9A5D8

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Trip.com’s revenue rises 21% in fourth quarter, as two co-founders resign

Revenue rose 21% year-on-year in the fourth quarter to 15.4 billion yuan ($2.24 billion), as all of its four main categories recorded double-digit growth.

Accommodations business rose 21% during the quarter year-on-year to 6.3 billion yuan, accounting for about 40% of the total.

Transportation ticketing revenue rose 12% year-on-year to 5.4 billion.

Package tour revenue rose 21% to 1.1 billion yuan.

Corporate travel revenue rose 15% year-on-year during the quarter to 808 million yuan.

Fourth-quarter profit nearly doubled to 4.3 billion yuan from 2.2 billion yuan a year earlier,

Source: Bamboo Works

https://thebambooworks.com/brief-trip-c ... rs-resign/

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M Stanley Cuts Trip.com Group (TCOM.US) TP to USD70, Lowers Revenue Forecast on Slower Hotel Revenue Growth

Morgan Stanley issued a research report updating the risk-reward profile of Trip.com Group-S (09961.HK), lowering its revenue forecasts for 2026 to 2028 by 0.6% to 1.7%, reflecting slower hotel revenue growth.

The broker also reduced its non-GAAP operating profit forecasts due to weaker operating leverage.

As a result, M Stanley trimmed its adjusted EPS forecasts for 2026 to 2028 by 1.3%, 2.5% and 3.7%, respectively.

M Stanley lowered its US share TP for Trip.com (TCOM.US) by 7% from USD75 to USD70, mainly reflecting earnings forecast revisions and changes to free cash flow projections for the outer years.

The rating is Overweight.

Source: AASTOCKS Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN