Trip.com (TCOM); (former Ctrip); HK 9961

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Trip.com is under anti-monopoly investigation

We estimate the investigation could take c.4-6 months, and the potential penalty is likely around 3-4% of FY25 revenue, based on similar probes of Alibaba and Meituan.

We expect Trip.com’s hotel take rate to dip slightly due to the investigation and revise our hotel revenue forecast from 15% previously to 9% in FY26F.

We believe Trip.com should maintain its leading position in OTA market, given its extensive supplier base, good call centre services and strong user mindshare.

Reiterate Add with a lower TP of HK$605. We remove it from our high conviction list.

Source: CGS

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... C58D3D9A33

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<Research>Citi Expects TRIP.COM-S 4Q25 Results to Be In Line, Drops US Stock TP to US$82 on Survey Impact

Citi Research expected TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) 's 4Q25 revenue and adjusted operating profit to be largely in line with market expectations.

During the traditional peak season in 4Q25, TRIP.COM-S may continue to expand its market share, while its domestic hotel business could benefit from a rebound in average daily rate (ADR) and solid growth in room nights.

The broker lowered its 2026/ 2027 adjusted earnings forecasts by 9%/ 5% each to reflect the potential impact on its domestic hotel business, and dropped its target price for Trip.com Group (TCOM.US) from US$86 to US$82.

Citi Research forecasted the stock price to fluctuate within a range during the antitrust investigation.

Related News: UBS Foresees Trip.com Shr Price to Remain Range-Bound in Near Term as Mkt Has Initially Digested Antitrust Probe Impact

Once the investigation concludes, investors will have clearer visibility on its fundamental outlook.

Based on TRIP.COM-S' industry leading position, the broker kept rating at Buy.

Source: AASTOCKS Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

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TRIP.COM-S Dives ~6%; Official Media: Some Platforms Profiting from Official Free Waitlist

Xinhua News Agency published a commentary yesterday (3rd), pointing out that some platforms are packaging the official free waitlist ticketing function of the 12306 railway website as "paid privileges", launching so-called "acceleration packages", "VIP channels", and "dedicated ticket snatching" services so as to charge extra fees.

When passengers successfully snatch tickets using the waitlist, such platforms attributed it to their "acceleration package"; even if they fail, the "ticket snatching software" bears no responsibility.

The article argued that this model is opaque and misleading, potentially undermining consumer rights, and urged passengers to recognize official channels and avoid unnecessary extra expenses.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN