Standard Chartered 2888

Re: Standard Chartered 2888

Postby winston » Mon Aug 03, 2020 9:48 am

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STANDARD CHARTERED PLC (2888 HK) | BUY

STRONG 2Q20 RESULTS

• Better income and costs; lower provisions
• Positive surprise in capital position
• 2H20 momentum is the key

Standard Chartered Bank (SCB) reported a strong beat in 2Q20 results with underlying profit before tax ex-debt valuation adjustment came in at US$934mn, which was considerably ahead of consensus estimate of US$310mn.

The beat was driven by higher fee and trading income, lower costs, lower impairments and better capital positions.

Looking ahead, revenue growth in 2H20 should be lower on both h/h and y/y basis owing to a likely less buoyant capital market and net interest margin pressure will continue to weight on net interest income.

Costs are expected to be below US$10bn in FY20e and FY21e.

While there are uncertainties in impairment charges in 2H20, it should lower than 1H unless macro conditions deteriorate materially.

Despite that banks continue to face pressure in light of downward HIBOR pressure and deteriorating macro conditions, we prefer SCB to HSBC (5 HK) owing to lower sensitivity to USD and HKD rates, and a relatively more attractive valuation.

We fine-tune our Fair Value estimate to HK$56 by setting it at -1s.d. to historical average of 0.5x 21e P/B.

Key downside risk would be whether the impact of Covid-19 would last longer-than-expected which will lead to a material deterioration in 2H20e.

Source: OCBC
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Re: Standard Chartered 2888

Postby winston » Fri Oct 30, 2020 12:52 pm

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Brokers' Latest Ratings, TPs, Views on STANCHART (02888.HK) Post Results (Table)

Brokers│Ratings│TPs (HK$)
Citigroup│Buy│56.1
Goldman Sachs│Buy│54
Credit Suisse│Neutral│HK$47.62 (GBX475)
Macquarie│Neutral->Outperform│43.4->45
Morgan Stanley│Equalweight│41
UBS│Neutral│38.4

----------------------

Brokers│Views
Citigroup│NII, capital position beat
Goldman Sachs│Underlying PBT beats on lower provision
Credit Suisse│QoQ result mixed; 4Q rev guidance misses
Macquarie│Mkt view too cautious
Morgan Stanley│Rev growth curbed by low interest rate
UBS│PPOP in-line; capital slightly stronger than expected

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: Standard Chartered 2888

Postby winston » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:50 pm

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Standard Chartered PLC (2888 HK) - Inline pre-provisions profit

Standard Chartered Bank’s (SCB) pre-provisions profit was in-line with expectations despite that net profit was 50% ahead of consensus estimates owing to lower provisions.

In 3Q20, the pace of net interest margin (NIM) compression moderated and income from financial market and wealth management rose 5% and 16% y/y respectively.

Capital position remained stable with common equity Tier-1 ratio at 14.4%, which is well above its target.

Looking ahead, management guided a more stabilized outlook despite that it is likely to take longer to achieve the return on tangible equity target of 10% owing to Covid19 outbreak.

Amid a more stabilized outlook guidance, we believe share price will get support at the current level.

However, catalysts for outperformance will depend on the pace of economic recovery.

We maintain our earnings estimates but lower our Fair Value estimate to HK$47, which is based on a lower valuation multiple. BUY.

Source: OCBC
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Re: Standard Chartered 2888

Postby winston » Tue Dec 15, 2020 8:10 am

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HSBC dividend seen at 22 US cents in 2021

by Winnie Lee and Victor Li

Morgan Stanley expects HSBC (0005) could pay a dividend of as much as 22 US cents per share next year, while Standard Chartered's (2888) dividend payment could reach 21 US cents.

If the Bank of England allows the banks to resume dividend distribution, it is expected that of the two major British banks HSBC will have dividend yields of 2.77 percent this year and 4.07 percent next year, the report from Morgan Stanley noted.

As for Standard Chartered, the dividend yields are expected to be 2.68 percent this year and 3.33 percent next year.

According to regulations of the Prudential Regulation Authority, which is under the BOE, HSBC can pay a maximum dividend of up to US$3.045 billion (HK$23.75 billion) this year, equivalent to 15 US cents per share while Standard Chartered could pay up to US$540 million, equivalent to 17 US cents per share, Morgan Stanley said.

Therefore, it expects HSBC to pay dividend of US$1.512 billion and Standard Chartered a dividend of US$228 million this year.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section- ... ts-in-2021
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Re: Standard Chartered 2888

Postby winston » Mon Jan 11, 2021 7:49 pm

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STANDARD CHARTERED PLC (2888 HK)
Recommendation : HOLD
Fair Value : HKD 58.00

VALUATION RERATING.

Rising US Treasury yields expectations
Stable capital position is supportive for dividend resumption
Watch out for the update on return targets

10-year US Treasury (UST) has risen to around 1.1% and BOS lifts forecast on 10Y UST to 1.5%.

While the impact of steepening yield curve on net interest margin (NIM) may not be material as lending yields are largely benchmarking short-term LIBOR/HIBOR, this would still represent incremental earnings upside and support the cyclical recovery.

With a solid capital position and CET1 ratio (14.4% in 3Q20) was ahead of medium-term target range of 13-14%, Standard Chartered Bank’s management is committed to return excess capital (i.e. resuming dividend payment and buyback) subject to regulatory approval and macroeconomic condition.

Amid rising expectation of a steepening UST yield curve and a more stabilized outlook guidance, we believe share price will get support at the current level despite the recent outperformance.

We raise our Fair Value estimate to HK$58, which is based on a higher valuation multiple of 0.55x forward P/B and is set at -0.5s.d. to historical average.

Source: OCBC
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Re: Standard Chartered 2888

Postby winston » Thu Mar 04, 2021 1:39 pm

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Standard Chartered PLC (2888 HK) - In-line results; capital return positive

Standard Chartered Bank (SCB) reported in-line 4Q20 results with underlying loss before tax at US$192mn.

SCB declared a final dividend of US9cents and a share buyback of US$254mn.

Capital position remained solid at with Common Equity Tier 1 ratio at 14.4% & was well above its medium-term CET1 target of 13-14%.

Management guided FY21 revenue to be more or less similar to FY20 but 1H21e revenue is expected to be lower y/y due to lower rates.

Net interest margin is forecasted to stablise at marginally below 4Q20 level of around 1.24%.

Return on tangible equity (ROTE) target to be 7%+ by 2023e & long-term ROTE target is kept unchanged at 10%+, which would hinge on revenue growth to recover to 5-7% from 2022e onwards.

Management highlighted the intent to return excess capital either via share buybacks or dividends going forward.

The stock is trading at 0.44x forward P/B, which is beyond -1s.d. to historical average.

We fine-tune our Fair Value estimate to HK$59, which is set at 0.55x forward P/B and is set at -0.5s.d. to historical average. BUY.

Source: OCBC
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Re: Standard Chartered 2888

Postby winston » Fri Apr 29, 2022 8:08 am

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StanChart surges as US$1.5b Q1 earnings beat estimates

Underlying pretax profit posted a surprise 4 percent rise to US$1.5 billion (HK$11.7 billion) in the period on a jump from its trading business, the London-based bank said in a statement yesterday.

Revenue growth for all of 2022 is expected to "slightly exceed" the previously guided 5 percent to 7 percent range, it said.

StanChart ended 10.4 percent higher in Hong Kong yesterday.

Financial markets revenue rose 32 percent in the first three months of the year, boosted by its commodity business and easily offsetting declines in wealth management.

Net interest income also rose as higher rates widened margins.

"We are on track to deliver 10 percent return on tangible equity by 2024, if not earlier."

Its Asian business reported a 26 percent decline in underlying pre-tax profit to US$907 million in the first quarter and the lender saw a 68 percent drop in pre-tax profit to US$144 million in Hong Kong, its single largest market, over the same period.

The operating income in the financial hub went down 10 percent to US$854 million from an earlier year.

The bank is exiting seven countries across Africa and the Middle East to focus on more fast-growing markets in those regions. The lender is also betting on China, where it will spend US$300 million to expand, particularly in wealth management.

The lender flagged a US$200 million credit impairment in the period, including US$160 million related to Chinese commercial real estate.

Wealth management income slid 17 percent, with Hong Kong slumping 26 percent.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section- ... -estimates
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Re: Standard Chartered 2888

Postby winston » Mon Jul 18, 2022 10:42 am

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Standard Chartered PLC (2888 HK) - A tug of war between interest rate hikes and recession risk

In 1H 2022, average 1-month HIBOR rose 15bps HoH, while average 1-month LIBOR increased 49bps HoH. Hence, SCB should see a modest NIM expansion in 1H 2022 & the expansion could accelerate in 2Q 2022 on the back of a steepening in LIBOR.

Given that excess liquidity in the interbank system has been reducing, we expect HKD rates to pick-up going into 2H 2022. NIM expansion & better cost discipline should help offset FX impact.

USD appreciation could weigh on SCB’s revenue. SCB made USD160m provision on China real estate in 1Q 2022. Given that SCB’s China real estate exposure is estimated to be around 1% of loan book, the lowest among HK banks, its asset quality should remain stable.

SCB’s capital position should remain solid & we expect CET1 ratio could edge down modestly QoQ as fair value of bonds held under other comprehensive income could weigh on capital by 20-30bps. However, the CET1 ratio is estimated to stay on the high end of the target range at 13-14%.

Share price of SCB has outperformed Hang Seng Index & its peers year-to-date, rebounding off from trough valuations. The stock is trading at 0.4x forward price-to-book (P/B), which is around -1s.d. to historical average over the past seven years.

Within HK international banks, we favour SCB despite preferring HK domestic banks to HK international banks.

Although SCB could benefit from rising interest rates, the downside risks of the global economy slowing down on the back of higher interest costs should not be ignored.

We maintain our Fair Value estimate at HKD66, with an unchanged valuation multiple of 0.55x forward P/B. BUY.

Source: OCBC
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Re: Standard Chartered 2888

Postby winston » Mon Sep 26, 2022 2:23 pm

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August 1, 2022

Brokers│Views

Goldman Sachs│rev. higher, cost lower, 2Q underlying profit beats forecast

UBS│2Q profit beats forecast, sees 2023 strong growth

Citigroup│2Q biz sturdy, interest margin wider, core capital ample

BofA Securities│2023-24 EPS forecasts cut by 6%, 5%

CICC│biz sturdy, credit cost lower; 2Q result beats forecast

Morgan Stanley│2022-23 NIM guidance in line with broker's prior forecast

Related News - Daiwa Expects Short-term Hibor to Rise to 4.5% by Yr-end to Pave Way for Further P-based Mortgage Rate Hikes

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: Standard Chartered 2888

Postby winston » Tue Sep 27, 2022 11:15 am

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Citi: STANCHART Relatively Less Affected by GBP Depreciation

The British government announced last Friday (23rd) an unexpected large fiscal support package, which sparked market concerns that the budget may put the U.K. in an unsustainable fiscal position, reported Citigroup.

Affected by the foreign exchange translation effect, the share prices of HSBC HOLDINGS and STANCHART (02888.HK) remained subdued yesterday.

Related News - Daiwa Expects Short-term Hibor to Rise to 4.5% by Yr-end to Pave Way for Further P-based Mortgage Rate Hikes

Nevertheless, the broker contended that STANCHART will likely be less affected by the depreciation of GBP, given the group's foreign exchange hedging efforts and its limited structural exposure to GBP.

The stock was rated at Neutral, with a target price of $70.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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