Prada 1913

Prada 1913

Postby winston » Tue Jun 14, 2011 3:08 pm

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For the valuation of PRADA Group, we adopted the financial multiplier valuation model with focus on P/E ratio. We believe as the luxury goods industry is a globalized, mature and well-covered industry, the comparison can truly reflect intrinsic value of PRADA Group.

In our valuation of PRADA Group, we take the following factors into consideration:
- We take the average of growth trend of the new DOS stores sales, geographical sales, sales by network and sales by product
- Gross profit margin further improves in a minor amount
- An increase in operating cost by the trend
- A decrease in interest expense reflecting the IPO effect
- A constant tax rate
- Use the average P/E ratio of the peers as reference.

We forecast the leading P/E for PRADA Group to be 20.4x and EPS of EURO 0.123.

With the IPO price of HK$36.5 – HK$48, the implied leading P/E would be 26.08x – 34.3x, representing a 21.8% - 32.4% downside risk.

We give PRADA Group a 12-month target price of HK$28.5 and a not subscribe rating.


Source: Phillips
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Re: Prada 1913

Postby winston » Fri Jun 17, 2011 8:42 am

Fashion house may throw up a bargain by Dr. Check
Friday, June 17, 2011

Investors finally took a cold look at the prospects of fashion darling Prada (1913), with some scared off by its ultra-high valuation amid a slump in the markets.

And Prada appears to be in tune with them, cutting its IPO price range to HK$39.5-HK$42.25 from HK$36.5-HK$48.

That's not a good sign, however, though there are other features about this offer that investors don't like. The company is selling 86.1 percent of its old shares - a high ratio that shows existing shareholders want to cash in.

Prada apparently squeezed its underwriters with slim IPO fees.

Then, there's the fact that people selling the share face a 12.5-percent capital gain tax, which should have been made clear before listing approval.

Still, some say there's no need to pay the tax on a small amount of shares or if you go through a broker who does not disclose names. Negotiations for waving such a tax for Hong Kong investors are in fact supposed to be under way. Good, but this should have been settled long ago.

Despite the concerns, though, we can maintain a positive view of Prada over the long run.

For 75 percent of its new capital will go on expansion. That means more outlets in promising markets, including 10 to 20 new shops every year in the mainland.

Some business numbers are also impressive. Like, the cost to make an expensive Prada bag in Chinese factories can be just a 10th of its retail price.

So I'll watch price movement to determine a reasonable entry level.

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_deta ... 10617&fc=8
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Re: Prada 1913

Postby winston » Thu Sep 29, 2011 10:44 am

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Prada SpA (1913 HK, Neutral) - Long-term play on luxury demand growth( HKD35.00 / PT: HKD40.30 )

Action: Play on rising global luxury demand, especially in Asia/EM

We view Prada as a play on growing luxury demand, as it is one of the fastest-growing luxury brands, with growth diversified over emerging and developed markets.

We expect it to show above-industry top- and bottom-line growth (17.5% and 29.1% FY11-FY15F CAGRs), but macro/high P/E may limit its re-rating and it may remain range-bound in the near term.

We initiate coverage at NEUTRAL with a target price of HKD40.30.

Source: Nomura
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Re: Prada 1913

Postby winston » Mon Oct 17, 2011 11:46 am

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Recommendation: Sell
Last close: $33.90
Fair Value: $26.50

• Interim revenues for the period ended July 31, 2011 amounted to Euro 1,134.3 million, surged of 21.1% YoY. At constant exchange rates, the increase would have been equal to 24.1%.

Retail sales came in Euro 835.4 million, up by 33.4% YoY (36.9% at constant exchange rates).

Same stores sales increased 22%, while the Company maintains a DOS network of 345 stores, increased 8% QoQ. The wholesale business is in line with the Company’s performance, revenue reached Euro 282 million accounting for 25.2% of the Company’s total revenue.


• Performance of leather goods was encouraging, revenue surged 35.3% YoY, accounting 55.2% of the Company’s total revenue. The leather goods performance was mainly driven by the strong expansion of the retail channel in Asia Pacific, where such products form the core of the product sales mix.


• We forecast the leading P/E for Prada, to be 18x and EPS of HKD$1.47. The current share price of HK$33.9 and an implied leading P/E of 23x represent a 21.7%% downside risk.

We downgrade our12-month target price of Prada to HK$26.5 with a “SELL” rating.

Source: Phillips
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Re: Prada 1913

Postby winston » Wed Nov 30, 2011 10:24 am

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DJ MARKET TALK: Prada Likely To Rise; 3Q Net Profit Jumps 75%

0745 [Dow Jones] Prada (1913.HK) is likely to rise as its 3Q net profit surged 75% on year to EUR93.6 million, as the combination of a strong brand, a closely-held distribution network, and the desirability of its iconic Prada bags and shoes among affluent customers has made Luxury goods maker's sales resilient to the economic turmoil.

All geographical areas posted double-digit sales growth, led by Asia Pacific--the group's main market with 36% (up 3 percentage points on year) of sale--rising 45%.

Based on Thomson Reuters, Prada is trading at 22.8X this year and 18.0X FY12 consensus earnings, undemanding relative to its strong earnings growth.

The stock ended Tuesday +3.1% at HK$35.45, far off a post-listing high of HK$50.90 set July 27.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire
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Re: Prada 1913

Postby winston » Thu Feb 09, 2012 2:54 pm

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DJ MARKET TALK: Prada Shares Likely To Perform Well N/T - Nomura

1141 [Dow Jones] Nomura says that over the last month it has seen various luxury companies reporting trading updates/financial results.

"A common theme has been strong momentum, no evidence of slowdown, and very strong growth in China (and Asia Pacific)."

It adds that Prada (1913.HK) itself has not seen any slowdown and its checks suggest that like for like sales for Prada are still running at 9-month momentum (which was up over 20%).

Nomura says all this augurs well for Prada's upcoming results (in March) and it believes the stock should do well near term;

It adds, Prada is now trading at 19X FY12 P/E, vs the luxury sector average of 18X.

"We believe valuations are still attractive as Prada's premium to luxury space has narrowed significantly since listing last year." Prada is up 3.5% at HK$39.55.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire
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Re: Prada 1913

Postby kennynah » Thu Feb 09, 2012 6:55 pm

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Re: Prada 1913

Postby winston » Fri Mar 30, 2012 6:07 am

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Prada bags 72pc profit increase as slowdown tipped

Prada reported fiscal 2011 profit that beat estimates and proposed paying the first dividend since last year's initial public offering.

Net profit rose 72 percent to 431.9 million euros (HK$4.4 billion) in the year ended January 31, the Milan-based luxury goods company said yesterday. The average of 13 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg was for profit of 414.3 million euros.

Shareholders will get a dividend of 5 euro cents a share.

The results confirm the group's ability to achieve strong growth while continuing to become more profitable, the company said.

Prada, whose IPO was Hong Kong's biggest last year, follows competitors including Hermes International SCA in predicting sustained demand for high-end goods as economic growth slows in China and Europe's debt crisis weighs on demand.

"Prada's growth story is appealing but risks remain," Antoine Belge, an analyst at HSBC, wrote in a report this month. "The level of fixed costs means profitability will be more exposed to a slowdown in demand than others," wrote Belge.

The earnings came after the Hong Kong market closed. Prada shares rose 1.8 percent to HK$49.55.

Source: BLOOMBERG


http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_deta ... 20330&fc=8
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Re: Prada 1913

Postby winston » Wed May 23, 2012 2:28 pm

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Italian fashion power house Prada <1913.HK > deputy chairman Carlo Mazzi said the worsening debt crisis had not hit the company's performance in Europe so far, and plans to open 12 to 15 stores in China this year.

Source: SCMP
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Re: Prada 1913

Postby winston » Thu May 24, 2012 2:03 pm

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Prada to Add 260 Shops in 3 Years on Demand From BRICs By Vinicy Chan and Robyn Meredith

Prada SpA (1913), the Italian fashion company that owns the Miu Miu and Church’s brands, plans to add 260 stores in the next three years to tap demand in emerging markets including Brazil, China and Persian Gulf countries.

“We are expanding in Chief Executive Officer Patrizio Bertelli said in an interview with Bloomberg Television conducted in Italian via a translator. “BraMorocco, Istanbul, Beirut, Dubai and Qatar,” zil is also a big market we’re looking at.”

Sales of discretionary goods in China will grow by a compounded annual rate of 13.4 percent between 2010 and 2020, as shoppers in the world’s second-largest economy become richer, McKinsey & Co. said in a report in March. Chinese urban disposable income rose 14 percent to about 21,810 yuan ($3,450) in 2011.

Prada expects the sales contribution of the Asia Pacific region to rise to 40 percent in 2012 and 2013, from 35 percent last year. The Milan-based company plans to open 12 to 15 new stores in China this year.

“We currently do not have any shop in India, but we are looking to open a first store maybe in a luxury hotel in Mumbai or New Delhi soon,” Bertelli said.

The euro has declined 11 percent against the dollar and 12 percent versus the yuan in the past year, and Bertelli said the company may consider increasing prices by as much as 10 percent in Europe if the single currency continues to depreciate.

“We need to maintain the same value,” said Bertelli, the husband of Miuccia Prada, the designer of the brand. “We may compensate the currency adjustment by raising prices in Europe.”

The 66-year-old chief executive also said the company plans to ramp up the presence of the Miu Miu brand as it is “underpenetrated” in many countries.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-2 ... brics.html
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