by winston » Tue Nov 07, 2017 1:08 pm
not vested
Factoring in more conservative 4Q assumptions
JD will report 3Q17 results on 13 November, before US market opens. We estimate total revenue to come in line with consensus’ estimates and non-GAAP earnings to grow sequentially to
RMB984 mn, higher than consensus’ estimates of RMB754 mn.
For 4Q17 revenue outlook, we estimate total revenue to reach RMB106 bn, 2 pp below consensus’ estimates, mainly due to:
(1) loss of about 40 apparel merchants to other platforms and
(2) high base effect with full quarter contribution from Yihaodian in 4Q16, which contributed to about RMB2 bn in revenue last year.
Key focus of the upcoming conference call includes:
(1) GMV growth trend in 4Q17 across different categories, in particular apparel, consumer electronics, and FMCG,
(2) competitive landscape in online shopping and quarterly margin trend,
(3) investment,
(4) 2018 outlook, and
(5) updates about the cooperation with Tencent on data integration.
Maintain OUTPERFORM but lower target price to US$45.4 (from US$45.5), factoring in more conservative 4Q17 assumptions.
We lower our FY17 non-GAAP earnings estimates, factoring in more conservative revenue and GMV growth assumptions in 4Q17.
We maintain OUTPERFORM as we view the long-term margin expansion story to remain intact amidst the consumption upgrade in China.
Our DCF-based TP is lowered to US$45.4 (from US$45.5), which is based on 3% terminal growth rate and 13% WACC, which implies 53x and 24x 2018E and 2019E, respectively.
Source: CS
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"