GCL-Poly Energy 3800

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Not vested

Monday morning short-selling at 6m shares ( out of 121m ): 5%

Down 4% to 3.10.

So the selling this morning was quite genuine ...

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Down 4% this morning. Now up 3%. That's a 7% move in a very short time !

Big Elephant selling 414,000 shares thru Sun Growth

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Not vested. Buy on Dips ? bounced of Range Low of 3.06 ..

DJ MARKET TALK: GCL-Poly Bounces 4.5%;Solar Price Declines Ease-CLSA

1026 [Dow Jones] GCL-Poly Energy (3800.HK) rebounds 4.5% to HK$3.48 but the magnitude of gains pales in comparison to its recent slide from a 52-week high of HK$5.72 set on May 12.

The sector had recently been sold down due to sliding product prices and while CLSA says solar prices continue their two-month slide this week, the declines have decelerated into a 3Q seasonal pick-up.

Still, it cuts its price assumptions for GCL, bringing down FY11/12 earnings forecasts by 20%/26%. But notes, following a collapse in its share price, "GCL appears to have already priced in excessively bearish pricing for 2012," hence the house ups the stock to Buy from Outperform, and cuts its target price to HK$5.11 from HK$5.34.

Peer Comtec Solar (0712.HK) also up 2.5% to HK$2.89.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

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Hong Kong-listed polysilicon and wafers maker GCL-Poly Energy Holdings is one of a handful of Chinese companies that may lose access to debt capital markets because of weak corporate governance, according to a report issued by Fitch Ratings.


Source: SCMP

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DJ MARKET TALK: GCL-Poly Energy Off 7.2%; Citi Keeps Buy Call

1515 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Citigroup keeps GCL-Poly Energy (3800.HK) at Buy with a HK$5.50 target, after the company says 1H11 net profit rose 351% on-year to HK$3.55 billion, driven by its cost advantages in polysilicon and wafer production in 1H11.

The house says GCL-Poly also disclosed its ASP and production cost metrics, and management remained upbeat for 2H11 shipment, on order recovery from Europe and strong demand from its customers.

"While its share price was under pressure over sector near-term demand uncertainty, we see GCL-Poly remains as a cost leader in solar upstream with sustainable profit growth." The stock falls 7.2% to HK$3.22.


Source: Dow Jones Newswire

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DJ MARKET TALK: CLSA Downgrades GCL-Poly To Underperform

1141 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: CLSA downgrades GCL-Poly Energy (3800.HK) to Underperform from Buy, after its sharp rebound from its recent trough (up 43.7% from its Oct. 4 trough of HK$1.67) despite a lack of new positive data points.

"We believe the bounce was driven mostly by risk appetite rather than fundamental sector improvements."

It says lower average selling prices (ASP) will likely be factored into share prices until a clear inflection point, likely in 2Q12.

Wafer prices have fallen the most, down about 10% since the beginning of October, it adds.

Plugging in "panic prices" into its model, CLSA says GCL would only be able to make money on an EBITDA basis in 2012. To reflect this, it cuts its target to HK$2.74 from HK$3.29. The stock is down 2.1% at HK$2.35.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

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DJ MARKET TALK: Daiwa Cuts GCL-Poly Target To HK$3.10; Keeps Buy

0930 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Daiwa cuts target of GCL-Poly Energy (3800.HK) to HK$3.10 from HK$4.50, after the house cuts its FY12 EPS forecast by 52% on lower average selling price assumptions.

It expects GCL to record only a marginal net profit in 1H12, and it believes a P/E valuation does not look meaningful during the downcycle of a capital-intensive company like GCL, so it has the new target price based on a FY11 P/B of 2.2X, versus using a P/E-based price previously.

"GCL's recent share price fall mostly discounts such weakness, in our view."

It keeps the stock at Buy.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

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Risks

The systematic risk trigger by economic double-dip or European debt crisis;
Its market expansion is worse than expected.


Hold rating temporarily

Overall speaking, GCL-POLY enjoys the advantage on its scale and cost, huge amounts of contract will ensure the growth.

Entering into downstream industry can also construct new growth. We expect its revenue will be HK$26 and 33.5 billion in 2011 and 2012 respectively.

However, because of the oversupply situation, net profit will be only HK$4.5and 3.9 billion, converting into the EPS at HK$0.29 and HK$0.25.

Regarding the valuation, though it holds strong competitiveness, there are still severe oversupply situation in the PV industry abroad and domestic, and global economy is still facing the difficulty of European debt crisis and possible economic recession.

Therefore, referring to the valuation for the PV industry during the worst period between October 2008 and March 2009, the P/E for global polysilicon and wafer sector was respectively 9X and 16X.

We conservatively give it 9X 2012 EPS, and the 12-month TP will be HK$2.25. We temporarily give Hold rating.

Source: Phillips

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DJ MARKET TALK: Citi Cuts GCL-Poly Energy To Neutral From Buy

1312 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Citigroup cuts GCL-Poly Energy (3800.HK) to Neutral from Buy, and target price to HK$2.40 (10X FY12 earnings) vs HK$3.50, as it factors in current prices for polysilicon, solar wafers, and uncertainties to solar end-demand in Europe.

The house forecasts GCL-Poly's solar segment gross margins may fall from 35% in 2011 to 20% in 1H12, due to sector overcapacity with poly prices at US$30/kg.

On the other hand, it still expects GCL-Poly to maintain cost advantage and survive the downturn, with 2H12 earnings catalyst on the pace of its solar farm project development, construction, and subsequent project sales.

The stock is down 0.5% at HK$2.15 at midday.


Source: Dow Jones Newswire

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GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd., a maker of polysilicon used in solar panels, surged 14 percent to HK$2.49 on optimism that stronger-than-expected demand will continue this year.

Surging installations in Germany and the U.K., plus China's plans to double capacity this year, are boosting demand for solar panels, said Aaron Chew, a Maxim Group LLC analyst in New York.

Germany installed 3 gigawatts of solar power capacity in December, the most in a single month, the country's grid regulator said Jan. 9.

Source: Reuters