Geely Automobile 0175

Re: Geely Automobile 0175

Postby kennynah » Tue Aug 10, 2010 12:39 am

well....i'm biased...i do hope geely makes it with volvo...
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Re: Geely Automobile 0175

Postby Muhajir » Thu Jun 09, 2011 4:10 pm

-Vested

Went in today at $ 2.88. May I know your opinion guys?? I have a substantial amount in it...
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Re: Geely Automobile 0175

Postby iam802 » Thu Jun 09, 2011 4:47 pm

Image

Geely break its support way back in Nov/Dec 2010. And ultimately, break down from the kumo support from 3.60

Since then, the sharp drop has slowly disappear and the price has slowly consolidated around 2.80

Current support from the Ichimoku chart shows $2.78 as identified by the Chikou Span.

Second support is around $2.55 that came from the price action way back in September 2010.

The Tenkan sen and Kijun sen seems to be flattening which adds further to the possibility that the price is consolidating.

Immediate resistance is around $3.10 as shown by the kumo. However, the kumo is not thick.

A strong basing off this level will easily allow Geely to go above $3.10

Likewise, if the consolidation at this level leads to another round of sharp fall in price spells problem.
1. Always wait for the setup. NO SETUP; NO TRADE

2. The trend will END but I don't know WHEN.

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Re: Geely Automobile 0175

Postby Muhajir » Thu Jun 09, 2011 11:07 pm

Dear Iam802 ,

Thank you so very much for the very thorough analysis. Its really appreciated. You have taken a lot of time and effort for this and I appreciate it very much. :)

Thank you
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Re: Geely Automobile 0175

Postby Atlas » Mon Jun 20, 2011 1:51 pm

Hi Muhajir,

I've been in and out of Geely for the last two years and discussed the stock and the company at a German forum. First here

http://www.wallstreet-online.de/diskuss ... er-gemerkt (over 2000 pages)

When the stock kept underperforming, nerves were laid bare and fights between a few members started, a new thread had to be opened a couple of months ago:

http://www.wallstreet-online.de/diskuss ... er-bemerkt


I'm currently slightly bearish on Geely. I'm the only member of that German forum who actually lives in China :mrgreen: and probably the most bearish over there.

First of all, I hardly know any Mainland Chinese who would actually fancy buying a Chinese brand car. Also, Geely is one of the very few manufacturers who doesn't have a foreign joint-venture partner.

JV's here usually work like this. Foreign companies, blinded by the prospects of a billion potential costumers, agree to terms unimaginable anywhere else. They bring technology which took them a fortune and decades to develop, they invest tons of money and pay for everything at least double of what a local company would pay (land cost, construction costs, production costs, labour, taxes, etc...).

The local partner, may it be Brilliance or SAIC just sits back and makes money, a lot of money.

Geely, on the other hand, actually spent money to acquire Volvo. Volvo is owned by parent Geely Holding, not Geely Automobile. The shareholder of Geely Automobile is used as cash cow. The number of oustanding shares increases by several million EVERY week, it's also rumoured that some of the production capacity will now be used to produce Volvo, not Geely.

Another issue is the increasing challenging car market in China. VW, Ford and a couple of other producers plan to break into the lower/ lower middle segment where Geely is making money. And rival BYD started a price war just a few months ago. Lower profit margins and in the best case only small increases in sales = less profit.


However, on the upside, there are two good things about Geely: 1st: the stock is already near it's 12 month low and has fallen more than 40% since its autumn highs and 2nd: the company made this statement:


""""

Geely Auto to announce Volvo tie-up details in 2-3 months (ETNet News)

Date: 2011/05/18 15:13

Geely Automobile (00175) will announce details of technological cooperation with Volvo Car Corp in two to three months at the earliest, Chief Executive Gui Shengyue told reporters after a shareholders' meeting.

The study of the Geely-Volvo technological cooperation has started for a certain period of time, Gui added. Gui admitted that recognition of consumers in developed countries on China-made vehicles is not high.

To capture European and US markets more effectively, Geely Auto will focus on making use of its overseas platforms and Gui expected related details would be available after few months. (HL)

""""


The stock jumped 5% after this announcement which I though was very big news. However, the stock has continued its down trend after this brief bounce.
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Re: Geely Automobile 0175

Postby Muhajir » Mon Jun 20, 2011 2:26 pm

Paninaro wrote:Hi Muhajir,

I've been in and out of Geely for the last two years and discussed the stock and the company at a German forum. First here

http://www.wallstreet-online.de/diskuss ... er-gemerkt (over 2000 pages)

When the stock kept underperforming, nerves were laid bare and fights between a few members started, a new thread had to be opened a couple of months ago:

http://www.wallstreet-online.de/diskuss ... er-bemerkt


I'm currently slightly bearish on Geely. I'm the only member of that German forum who actually lives in China :mrgreen: and probably the most bearish over there.


Dear Paninaro,

WOW! A lot to read, and I will have to use google translate to read through the threads. And I want to tell you how much I appreciate this long post full of details from a ground level perspective as you in China. Honestly I never would have got this info from where I am based and with my lack of Chinese language skills. For me this is most important information cause I had bought into this stock thinking of it as more of a long term investment and not a "scalping" stock in winston speak. :mrgreen:

Your point about
Paninaro wrote:First of all, I hardly know any Mainland Chinese who would actually fancy buying a Chinese brand car. Also, Geely is one of the very few manufacturers who doesn't have a foreign joint-venture partner.

JV's here usually work like this. Foreign companies, blinded by the prospects of a billion potential costumers, agree to terms unimaginable anywhere else. They bring technology which took them a fortune and decades to develop, they invest tons of money and pay for everything at least double of what a local company would pay (land cost, construction costs, production costs, labour, taxes, etc...).

The local partner, may it be Brilliance or SAIC just sits back and makes money, a lot of money.

Geely, on the other hand, actually spent money to acquire Volvo. Volvo is owned by parent Geely Holding, not Geely Automobile. The shareholder of Geely Automobile is used as cash cow. The number of oustanding shares increases by several million EVERY week, it's also rumoured that some of the production capacity will now be used to produce Volvo, not Geely.


This is the crux of the issue with Geely and I have to agree with everything you said here. Honestly A++ grade information from a ground level perspective. I really don't know how to thank you enough for all your time in giving me this invaluable info. I will be switching to those who are selling BMW's, Mercedes, and Audi's I guess. I am sure I can see a lot of demand from the newly wealthy for these status symbol cars.

Paninaro wrote:Another issue is the increasing challenging car market in China. VW, Ford and a couple of other producers plan to break into the lower/ lower middle segment where Geely is making money. And rival BYD started a price war just a few months ago. Lower profit margins and in the best case only small increases in sales = less profit.

However, on the upside, there are two good things about Geely: 1st: the stock is already near it's 12 month low and has fallen more than 40% since its autumn highs and 2nd: the company made this statement:


The secondary reason, though no doubt as important as the first as it effects the bottom line at the end of the day. which I agree whole heartedly.

I would like to ask if you would mind if I pm' you some questions I have about SAIC and Brilliance and the overall car market for a ground level perspective?

Thank you once again friend.


Ali
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Re: Geely Automobile 0175

Postby Atlas » Mon Jun 20, 2011 4:17 pm

Sure, you can pm me! I'm not an industry insider or expert though. Actually I never really looked at other china car stocks except BYD.

The Brilliance stock already had a good run up in the last 12 months.

In general, I'm not too optimistic about the China Car Industry for the next couple of years though... 2009 and 2010 were pretty good years and its not gonna get easier...
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Re: Geely Automobile 0175

Postby Muhajir » Tue Jun 21, 2011 1:44 pm

Thank you for your valued opinion Paninaro. :) I will be in touch through pm. :)
I will be getting rid of this ticker soon...

-Still vested

Geely Automobile ST: the RSI is oversold

Image
Our pivot point is at 3.04.

Our preference: the downside prevails as long as 3.04 is resistance.

Alternative scenario: the upside breakout of 3.04 would call for 3.18 and
3.26.

Comment: the RSI is trading below 30. This could mean that either the stock is in a lasting downtrend or just oversold and that therefore a rebound could shape (look for bullish divergence in this case). The MACD is below its signal line and negative. The configuration is negative. Moreover, the share standsbelow its 20 and 50 day MA (standing respectively at 2.99 and 3.05).

Supports and resistances:
3.18 *
3.04 **
2.99
2.86 last
2.64
2.56 **
2.48 *
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Re: Geely Automobile 0175

Postby Muhajir » Fri Jun 24, 2011 6:43 pm

Muhajir wrote:-Vested

Went in today at $ 2.88.


-Not vested now.

Sold off today @ $ 3.09 :) Pretty happy with the decent money ;) ... hehe
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Re: Geely Automobile 0175

Postby winston » Mon Oct 15, 2012 1:35 pm

not vested

DJ MARKET TALK: Geely Auto Tipped Next 'Multi-Bagger' On SUV - JPM

1252 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: JPMorgan says sport utility vehicles gained global popular appeal in the late 1990s, when the pre-production model of Mercedes-Benz's new ML-Class SUV appeared in the 1997 film The Lost World: Jurassic Park.

SUVs now account for a significant proportion - around 30% - of new car sales in countries such as the U.S., Korea, and Taiwan.

In China, the proportion is only 13%, but this is more than double the 5.0% recorded in 2005. JPM believes it is SUVs' powerful trend that helped Great Wall Motor's (3333.HK) stock return 440% since 2010.

"If investors missed this, we see the next opportunity as Geely Auto (0175.HK), which we expect to be the next multi-bagger," driven by earnings upgrades and, more importantly, re-rating. The house raises its Dec-2013 price target for Geely to HK$6.00, based on 14X FY13 P/E, from HK$4.00, implying an almost doubling of the share price from here. Geely is up 2.8% at HK$3.25 at midday.


Source: Dow Jones & Company, Inc
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