by winston » Wed Apr 06, 2016 5:16 am
not vested
HSBC target slashed by Morgan Stanley
by Daisy Wu
Morgan Stanley has cut the price target for HSBC (0005) to only HK$28, a record low similar to the level at which it made a rights issue in 2009 during the financial crisis.
The lender's shares slid 2.5 percent to HK$46.75 yesterday.
But the 40 percent discount to the current stock price will only be the case amid a harder landing in China, a still muted revenue growth and rising impairments. Price target derived from the base case was cut 12 percent from HK$51 to HK$45.
"We are cutting revenues for HSBC by US$1 billion [HK$7.8 billion] in 2016 our estimate of US$53 billion is now 7 percent below consensus estimates. This is driven by pressure on global banking and markets division in first quarter; rates remaining lower for longer and continued slowdown in revenues from Hong Kong we expect contraction in 2016."
Hong Kong, the key driver of revenue growth at HSBC, is expected to see its revenue drop 2 percent, or US$400 million, from a year earlier.
"The loan book looks likely to be flat in 2016 and, with competition for higher quality loans rising, we expect net interest margin to contract. Market linked fees will also be under pressure with stock market turnover down 30 percent year to date from 2015 average."
The local business posted a 7 percent compound annual growth rate in the past five years and a 5 percent increase in revenue last year.
Morgan Stanley also reduced estimates on earnings per share by 6 percent year on year from 2016 to 2018 in US dollar terms.
The high dividend payout is forecast to be at risk, amid contracted earnings power and increasing regulatory pressure on capital. "It will get tougher for the bank to keep paying out US$10 billion of dividends per annum."
Morgan Stanley estimated a "steady state" common equity tier 1 requirement for HSBC of 13.5 percent, rising from 11.9 percent last year.
Source: The Standard
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"