GCL-Poly Energy 3800

[winston]

GCL-Poly Can’t Explain Six-Day Stock Slide, Says Business Is ‘Normal’ By Joshua Fellman

GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Ltd. (3800), China’s largest polysilicon maker, said operations are normal, production and sales are on schedule and expansion is going smoothly, and it can’t explain its falling share price.

The stock fell for a sixth consecutive day in Hong Kong trading yesterday, dropping 47 Hong Kong cents, or 10 percent, to HK$4.09. It has lost 27 percent since May 11, while the benchmark Hang Seng Index slipped 0.6 percent over the same period. GCL-Poly addressed the decline in a statement issued yesterday after the market closed.

Prices and margins are being squeezed in the solar industry, from wafers to cells to modules. The spot price of polysilicon, the main raw material used to make photovoltaic panels, dropped 5.1 percent this month from April to $74.40 a kilo, according to data compiled by Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

“What you’re seeing is a realization that polysilicon will not be immune from the supply issues roiling the industry,” Paul Leming, an analyst at Soleil Securities Corp. in New York, said in a phone interview today. GCL-Poly has “huge exposure to falling wafer and polysilicon prices.”

Still, the market hasn’t noticeably deteriorated in the past week, and most equity analysts seem bullish about the stock, said Jenny Chase, head of solar analysis at New Energy Finance. Of 20 analysts tracked by Bloomberg who follow GCL- Poly, 19 recommend that investors buy the stock. There is only one “sell” rating.

Credit Ratings

“The slide in GCL-Poly’s share price could possibly be related to its first credit ratings, by S&P and Fitch last week,” Chase wrote in an e-mail. Some investors may have expected higher ratings.

Standard & Poor’s Rating Services rated GCL-Poly BB+, the highest non-investment grade, and its proposed bonds BB, the second-highest. Fitch Ratings gave the company and the issue BBB-, the lowest investment grade.

The company is “susceptible to high industry risk” and has a short record of large-scale operations, S&P said on May 13. The ratings company said GCL-Poly’s outlook is stable because of “strong market position and competitive cost structure.”

GCL-Poly said its board “has noted the recent decrease of the price of the shares of the company and wish to state that they are not aware of any reasons for the decrease,” according to the statement.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-1 ... rmal-.html

[winston]

Not vested. Pump & Dump ? Authorities sleeping ?

DJ MARKET TALK: GCL-Poly Poster Child Of Hong Kong Mid Caps' Selloff

1133 [Dow Jones] GCL-Poly Energy (3800.HK) which was previously punted sharply higher on multi themes, is becoming the poster child of the recent sell-down in Hong Kong mid-cap stocks.

The stock is down 7.4% at HK$3.87 and is the second most heavily traded in Hong Kong with HK$896.8 million. It has now fallen a whopping 32.3% from its 52-week high of HK$5.72 hit just May 12, but the current price still represents a year-to-date gain of 35.3%.

GCL was previously punted sharply higher due to CIC investment, and as a solar energy play. The stock's intraday low of HK$3.84 marks the trough of the current round of fall and may act as an immediate support.

Valuation appears undemanding at 7.7X consensus FY11 and 6.1X FY12 earnings, hence unless analysts are significantly behind the curve in company fundamentals, further downside would appear to be limited from here.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[winston]

Not vested

Wednesday Short-Selling at 92m shares ( out of 405m shares ): 23%

Looks like the big boys are not afraid of CIC

[winston]

Not vested

Thursday Morning Short-Selling at 61.6m shares ( out of 277m shares ): 22%

No one has any respect for CIC

Better not catch this falling knife. Let it touch HK$3.00 first before I look at it ...

[winston]

Not vested. From Dr. Check, The Standard HK:-

GCL-Poly is a major polysilicon and wafer producer in China. Last week, global polysilicon prices fell 10 percent to US$67.50 a kilogram because of oversupply fears.

I recommend that those who hold the stock cut their losses.

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_deta ... 10527&fc=8

[winston]

Not vested

DJ MARKET TALK: GCL-Poly +4.5%; Poised For N/T Rebound - BOCI

1420 [Dow Jones] GCL-Poly Energy (3800.HK) is up 4.5% at HK$3.95, leading the rebound in solar energy plays, with Comtec Solar (0712.HK) +3.4% at HK$3.31.

In addition to broad market weakness, the sector's recent selloff had been triggered by inventory buildup concerns.

BOCI says GCL's recent share-price weakness (it hit a 52-week high of HK$5.72 on May 12) has been caused by global solar supply chain price cuts, with the latest wafer prices representing a 13% discount to GCL's 1Q11 average selling price of US$0.76/W and are even slightly lower than its year-end guidance of US$0.68/W.

Still, the house says GCL-Poly's share price is "poised for rebound in the near term" after the 1-1.5 month inventory of domestic high-cost producers is cleared.

GCL volume is hefty at HK$505.9 million, making the stock 4th mostly heavily traded in Hong Kong.


Source: Dow Jones Newswire

[winston]

Better not catch this falling knife. Let it touch HK$3.00 first before I look at it ...

Not vested yet.

HK$3.40 now. Down 6% again today. range High was HK$5.72. That means a drop of 41% already in a month.

I've just put this on my watch-list.

But I'm not comfortable with the Market Direction and it's detiorating fundamental so I will just watch from the side-lines.

[Muhajir]

Better not catch this falling knife. Let it touch HK$3.00 first before I look at it ...

Not vested yet.

HK$3.40 now. Down 6% again today. range High was HK$5.72. That means a drop of 41% already in a month.

I've just put this on my watch-list.

But I'm not comfortable with the Market Direction and it's detiorating fundamental so I will just watch from the side-lines.

I see the fear bug is effecting the veterans.. just imagine what it will do to us newbies.

[winston]

Not vested

Low of 3.27. Drop another 5% today.

A lot of people who tried to catch this falling knife have been cut into pieces already.

How low can it go ?

[winston]

Not vested yet.

Touched 3.06 this morning. That's a whopping 46% drop from the range high of 5.72 just about month ago.

Strong support around HK$2.30 but will i drop that much from here ?