GCL-Poly Energy 3800

Re: GCL-Poly Energy 3800

Postby winston » Tue Feb 08, 2011 3:25 pm

Not vested

DJ MARKET TALK: MS Cuts GCL-Poly To Equal-Weight; Lock In Profit

1013 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Morgan Stanley cuts GCL-Poly Energy (3800.HK) to Equal-weight from Overweight despite slightly raising its target price to HK$3.80 from HK$3.70.

The house says GCL has outperformed its benchmark by 140% over the past seven months; now its strategy of massive market share gain via low-cost manufacturing is well understood by the market, and consensus expectations have become more reasonable (albeit still low).

It adds, with likely contraction in solar shipments this year, "we see limited room for further upside surprise to earnings near term and therefore recommend locking in some profits."

Source: Dow Jones Newswire
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Re: GCL-Poly Energy 3800

Postby winston » Tue Feb 08, 2011 3:27 pm

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DJ MARKET TALK: UBS Raises GCL Poly Target To HK$4.50; Keeps Buy
Jan 24, 2011

1119 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UBS raises its GCL Poly (3800.HK) target price to HK$4.50 from HK$3.00 on a higher conviction that the company's delivery pipeline on its expected capacity expansion will be close to an estimated 5 gigawatts by the end of 2011.

Says the house has higher confidence that polysilicon supply constraints will persist in 2011 due to a demand pull-in on Germany's mid-year reduction as well as better visibility on 2012.

Adds extensive checks at GCL's key customers has removed the house's concerns on how GCL can fill its 2011 aggressive capacity plan (likely 5GW plus).

Notes house checks suggest that the company has more than 4.5GW of firm orders in 2011 from its 40GW pipeline in the next few years; adds the house was earlier concerned that GCL would lower ASP significantly to gain market share, but checks reveal that pricing is reasonable at $60/kg and $0.80/W currently and down to $55/kg and $0.73/W by year end.

Keeps the stock at Buy;


Source: Dow Jones Newswire
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Re: GCL-Poly Energy 3800

Postby winston » Tue Feb 08, 2011 3:29 pm

And in just two weeks, they are asking you to sell ....

winston wrote:Feb 8, 2011
DJ MARKET TALK: MS Cuts GCL-Poly To Equal-Weight; Lock In Profit



DJ MARKET TALK: MS Raises GCL-Poly Target To HK$3.70 Vs HK$3.30
Jan 17, 2011

1122 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Morgan Stanley raises GCL-Poly's (3800.HK) target to HK$3.70 vs HK$3.30, after the house raises its FY11-FY12 earnings forecasts by 14%-22%, respectively, to reflect the assumption of larger wafer shipments and smaller polysilicon shipments (which have lower profitability).

"GCL's wafer capacity expansion is likely to be larger and faster than earlier anticipated." It adds, while GCL's capacity expansion plans are known, its impact on profitability is still being underestimated. The house keeps the stock at Overweight.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire
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Re: GCL-Poly Energy 3800

Postby Muhajir » Thu Feb 10, 2011 8:51 am

Hi winston,

Found a bit of news that might be of interest.
07 February 2011, 23:32

Six GCL-Poly solar PV projects in Southern California receive tax equity financing from Wells Fargo

In November 2010, Wells Fargo and GCL-Poly Energy Holdings announced their collaboration on a US$100 million fund that would go towards the establishment of U.S. solar PV projects through 2011. Today, the two companies have released that the tax equity financing for the solar projects at the University of San Diego and five high schools in the Antelope Valley Joint Union High School District have reached completion. These are the first projects to be completed under the agreement between Wells Fargo and GCL Solar Energy.

The University of San Diego is now home to a 1.2MW solar system that spans across the rooftops of academic buildings, residence halls, parking structures and a pavilion using 5,000 solar panels. The installation was completed through a partnership between GCL Solar and Amsolar.

The Antelope Valley Joint Union High School District has five new projects that were completed in December 2010. The projects range in size from 200kW to 1.2MW and are a part of a series of projects that will be completed at 10 schools in the greater Los Angeles area over this year. GCL, along with its partner PsomasFMG, claim that once all the solar projects for the school district are complete, this will be the largest solar power installation at any one school district in the U.S. Over 41,000 solar panels will be used in the projects.

Both the University of San Diego and the Antelope Valley Joint High School District will buy the electricity produced from the systems on their campuses under a long-term power purchase agreement.

Source: http://international.pv-tech.org/news/six_gcl_poly_solar_pv_projects_in_southern_california_receive_tax_equity_fi
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Re: GCL-Poly Energy 3800

Postby winston » Thu Feb 10, 2011 8:58 am

Thanks Muhajir.

You may want to also check out the "Solar Energy" thread, located in the "Business Sector & Industries" sub-section, located under the "Other Investments Instruments & Ideas" section.

Take care,
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Re: GCL-Poly Energy 3800

Postby winston » Tue Feb 22, 2011 12:26 pm

Not vested. At HK$1.25, nobody was really asking you to buy. Now at close to HK$4, everyone is asking you to buy .... :?

DJ MARKET TALK: MS Upgrades GCL-Poly To Overweight Vs Equalweight

1151 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Morgan Stanley upgrades GCL-Poly Energy (3800.HK) to Overweight from Equalweight, as the stock is attractively valued (at a P/E of 7.6X and P/BV of 2.6X).

"After successfully following a low-cost-based market share strategy for wafers, GCL is now repeating it for polysilicon," the house says.

It notes, once GCL ramps up phase 1 of its new polysilicon capacity by end-2011, it will emerge as the largest and lowest-cost polysilicon producer.

The house raises its target to HK$4.85 from HK$4.30. The house also raises its EPS forecast for FY11, FY12 by 14.0%, 11.8%, respectively.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire
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Re: GCL-Poly Energy 3800

Postby winston » Fri Mar 18, 2011 10:29 am

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DJ MARKET TALK: GCL-Poly +7.1%; Citi Ups Target To HK$5.20

0935 [Dow Jones] GCL-Poly Energy (3800.HK) is up 7.1% at HK$4.22 early, after it reports stronger-than-expected FY10 results; the company posts a FY10 net profit of HK$4.02 billion after recording a net loss of HK$200 million in FY09.

Citigroup notes its strong results were driven by higher shipments and improving pricing for polysilicon and wafer.

"We believe the company is well-positioned for solar energy growth, and expect 66.5% earnings growth in 2011 driven by further ramp-up on polysilicon and wafer capacity, and on improvement of its wafer processing costs."

The house raises its target to HK$5.20 from HK$4.60, based on 12X FY11 P/E.


Source: Dow Jones Newswire
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Re: GCL-Poly Energy 3800

Postby winston » Thu Mar 24, 2011 12:37 pm

Not vested. From Phillips:-


Risks

The FIT for PV industry is adjusted downwards sharply;
Its capacity expansion is worse than expected.


To continue buying for reasonable valuation

Generally speaking, the high growth of PV industry is expectable. GCL-POLY takes a leading position, and its PV capacity will double, with low cost advantage bringing about high earning capability.

We expect its revenue will be HK$37 and 43.7 billion in 2011 and 2012 respectively. Net profit will be HK$8.5 and 9.7 billion, converting into the EPS at HK$0.55 and HK$0.62.

Regarding valuation, the Company's new energy business will grow significantly. Referring to its international peers, the average P/E for electric enterprises listed in HK is 11X, and that for international polysilicon and wafer manufacturer is above 20X.

By the sub-segment valuation, we conservatively give its old electric and new energy businesses 9X and 11X 2011 EPS, and the 12-month TP will be HK$6.00. We reiterate it buy rating.
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Re: GCL-Poly Energy 3800

Postby winston » Wed Mar 30, 2011 8:57 am

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Charge over?

Wednesday, March 30, 2011

When a stock becomes very popular, it is time, perhaps, to unload it. On March 4 of last year, I urged readers to take a look at GCL-Poly Energy (3800).

The firm's fortunes were steadily rebounding after it acquired Jiangsu Zhongneng - the mainland's largest polysilicon supplier - in 2009.

The stock had fallen from a peak of HK$3.84 in July 2009 to a low of HK$1.20 last May.

Last August 10 I again recommended the solar power player as the price of polysilicon was recovering worldwide.

After that, the stock closed at HK$1.77, which means a valuation of around 8.7 times this year's expected earnings and 1.6 times book value. Alas, August provided the last feasible opportunity to buy the pick. Since then, it has soared 163 percent, closing yesterday at HK$4.67.

Japan's continuing nuclear woes have boosted solar stocks around the world as the sun is now expected to become the primary generator of non-fossil fuel-based energy.

Recently, there have been a lot of bullish reports on the stock from several brokerages whose targets range from HK$4.80 to HK$5. I do hope they are correct. Otherwise, investors who are chasing the stock now may end up with a loss.


http://thestandard.com.hk/news_detail.a ... 10330&fc=4
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Re: GCL-Poly Energy 3800

Postby Muhajir » Fri May 20, 2011 3:56 pm

-Not Vested

Stock jumps up 5%++ today based on ratings outlook by Fitch


FITCH rates China's GCL-Poly 'BBB-'; outlook stable - Thu May 12, 2011 10:27pm EDT

(The following was released by the rating agency)

May 12 (Fitch) Fitch Ratings has assigned GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited (GCL-Poly) a Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of 'BBB-'. The Outlook on the IDR is Stable. At the same time, Fitch has also assigned a foreign-currency senior unsecured rating of 'BBB-' to the company and an expected rating of 'BBB-(exp)' to GCL-Poly's proposed USD senior unsecured notes. GCL-Poly is the largest Chinese producer of polysilicon (poly), which is the raw material used for the production of solar panels.

GCL-Poly's ratings are supported by its strong market position as one of the top three global producers of poly with a capacity of 21,000 metric tons (MT), and of photovoltaic (PV) wafer at a 3,500 mega watts (MW) capacity as at financial year end (FYE) Dec 2010. Other factors backing Fitch's assessment are GCL-Poly's low cost position, its strong order book and the Chinese government's policy that supports poly production by large scale producers. However, the volatile nature of the PV system market due to chunky capacity expansion and the lack of a strong PV technological leadership constrain its ratings.

Fitch noted that 60% of downstream production capacities - including PV wafers, cells, panels and modules - are based in China. GCL-Poly's close proximity to customers in China gives it an advantage over its overseas competitors. GCL-Poly's location advantage supports its cost leadership position by reducing expensive packaging and shipping costs. The cost leadership is also achieved through the integration of by-product recycling into its poly production process. Fitch notes GCL-Poly has a meaningful technological head-start against any future competitors particularly in by-product recycling.

Fitch also takes comfort in GCL-Poly's strong order book, which lasts until 2016. This counters, to some extent, the demand volatility in the PV system industry. Since August 2010, GCL-Poly has signed a number of long-term supply contracts with an order book of over 50,000MW as at end-Dec 2010. This is about 7.7 times GCL-Poly's expected 2011 capacity of 6,500MW and provides support to GCL-Poly's aggressive capacity expansion plan.

The volatility of the poly and PV system markets is a source of uncertainty affecting GCL-Poly's operating performances and constrains its ratings. Any large scale capacity expansion by poly producers can create short-term volatility in pricing environment. This may result in a more volatile financial profile for GCL-Poly. While the company's order book provides future volume certainty, it is still exposed to price volatility.

Furthermore, while Fitch recognises GCL-Poly's technical strength in its production process, the agency believes that barriers to entry are not insurmountable for large corporations with strong cash flows as the technical aspect of the production process is readily available.

The Stable Outlook reflects GCL's strong order book and its continuing efforts to drive down production costs; while selling price is supported by robust demand outlook due to continuing government support towards the development of solar power globally.

Factors that may negatively affect GCL-Poly's ratings include EBITDA margin falling below 35% on a sustained basis, failure to maintain its position among the top three producers in poly and PV wafer, and net debt/EBITDA sustained above 1.0x.

Factors that may lead to positive rating actions include the company's ability to consistently generate positive free cash flow (FCF) and maintain net debt/EBITDA below 0.5x. Fitch would also consider upgrading GCL-Poly if the company becomes the largest poly and PV wafer producer in the world.

Source Reuters
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