JD.com (JD); 9618 HK

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Brokers│Views

Jefferies│JD-SW's fundamentals expected to improve this year

CLSA│RMB10 billion subsidy campaign expected to have minimal impact on profit margin

Citigroup│4Q22 product sales volume missed forecast; revenue growth visibility low due to promotion campaign

Goldman Sachs│Cautiously optimistic towards 2023 recovery; 2H23 growth expected to be better than 1H23

UBS│4Q22 revenue in line with estimate-beating profit margin

Morgan Stanley│4Q22 revenue growth in line with estimate-beating profit margin

HSBC Global Research│Uncertainties already reflected on share price

JPMorgan│Negative share price reaction projected due to enervated core revenue

Related NewsJD-SW 4Q22 Non-GAAP Net Income Soars Over 1.1x; US Shrs Up 1.6% Pre-mkt

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... t-news/HK6

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JD.com Inc (9618 HK/JD US)

4Q22 core earnings beat due to cost control, lack of transparency on subsidy scheme (-ve)

Revenue grew by 7% y-o-y to Rmb295bn, with JD retail increasing by 4%

Net-GAAP net profit increased by 115% to Rmb7.7bn, above market expectations of Rmb5.5bn, mainly due to cost control

Started paying out annual dividend of US$0.62 per ADS for FY22, or 1.3% dividend yield

Despite the stronger-than-expected 4Q earnings, near-term sentiment could be negatively affected by the weaker-than-expected JD retail growth and lack of transparency on subsidy scheme

Our View:

We expect near-term share price pressure due to the weaker-than-expected JD retail growth and lack of transparency on subsidy scheme.

Management shared that descretionary spendings still needs some time to recover, and mentioned limited margin impact from subsidy scheme, but did not provide timeline or GMV guidance.

We expect investors might remain cautious about top-line growth in the short term until the actual results of its subsidy scheme are known.

However, we remain confident about JD’s mid-long-term growth potential as it leverages its strong fulfillment capability and engages in continuous category expansion.

The company is trading at an undemanding valuation of 15x forward P/E, 2.4SD below the historical average. We currently rate BUY on the counter with TPs of HK$381/US$98.

Source: DBS

https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/comp ... ecid=13255

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Focusing on sustainable, high-quality growth

JD’s revenue reached Rmb1,046bn in FY22, up 10% yoy (up 7.1% yoy in 4Q22), hitting a record high, in line, driven by JDL’s 31.2% yoy and JDR’s 7.3% yoy growth.

Non-GAAP net profit reached Rmb28bn in FY22, up 64% yoy, beating our expectation, due mainly to better cost control and streamlining new businesses.

The first month’s investment for the Rmb10bn subsidy program is planned to be Rmb1bn, which will be shared with JD’s brand partners and merchants. Management guided that non-GAAP NPM would increase yoy in FY23F.

We expect revenue to grow by 6.8% yoy to Rmb1,118bn in FY23F, with GPM up by 0.4ppts to 14.4% and non-GAAP NPM reaching 2.9%, up 0.2ppts yoy, in FY23F.

Reiterate Add with a new DCF-based TP of HK$350.

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... 71EBC8C338

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JD.com shares dip on cautious outlook

13 Mar 2023

HONG KONG: JD.com Inc shares fell after the company reported a sharp drop in year-end revenue growth as Chinese shoppers reined in spending, and cautioned a recovery will take time.

China’s second-largest online retailer said revenue rose 7% from October to December, down from 23% growth a year earlier.

Total revenue may fall by 1% on year in the three months to March, according to Jefferies analyst Thomas Chong, who said the recovery in overall domestic consumption this quarter may be sluggish.

Like Alibaba and Tencent Holdings Ltd, JD faces intensified competition from up-and-comers such as PDD Holdings Inc and ByteDance Ltd, and has balanced tightened cost controls with targeted measures to shore up its market share.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... us-outlook

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China's JD.com to spin off industrial, property units in Hong Kong float

HONG KONG (March 30): Chinese e-commerce firm JD.com Inc said on Thursday it planned to spin off its property and industrial units and list them on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Upon completion of the proposed spin off of JD Logistics and JD Property, JD.com said it would continue to indirectly hold more than 50% of the shares in both units which will remain as subsidiaries of the company.

The company spun off its logistics unit into a standalone entity in 2017 and then opened up its delivery and warehousing services to third-party companies.

The Beijing-based company said in January it was winding down its e-commerce business in Indonesia and Thailand, where it faced stiff competition from Sea Ltd-owned Shopee.

Source: Reuters

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/node/661537

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JD-SW Files for HK IPO for JD Industrials and JD Property Spin-off

JD-SW (09618.HK) announced that the Company intends to spin-off JD Industrials and JD Property by way of a separate listing of the JD Industrials and JD Property Shares on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

The Company submitted a spin-off proposal to the Exchange.

The joint sponsors of both are Bank of America Securities, Goldman Sachs and Haitong International.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... t-news/HK6

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JD.com Inc (9618 HK/JD US)
Organisational reforms and weak 3C product demand to drag revenue growth in FY23 (-ve)

JD.com announced organisation reforms, which will take time to digest; we expect this to negatively impact top line growth during the business transition period

Communication equipment and home appliances product sales recorded 9% and 2% declines respectively in 2M23, falling behind the 3.5% growth in total retail sales

The current market consensus – a mid-teen revenue growth in 2H23 – is overly optimistic in our view

TP: HK$257

Source: DBS

https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/comp ... ecid=13762

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JD.com Inc
More patience needed for meaningful improvement

In a preview call, management said that JD’s 1Q23F results are likely to be in line
with its previous guidance.

We expect JD’s 1Q23F revenue to decline slightly by 1% yoy and its non-GAAP OPM
to reach 2.3%, up 0.4pts yoy.

JD lowered its FY23F topline growth guidance to 2-4% yoy, on impact of business
adjustments, JD Retail structure change and weak consumption sentiment.

Reiterate Add, with a lower DCF-based TP of HK$305.

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... 338DCA34FC

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JD.com (JD.O) - Business Update & 1Q23 Preview; Lower 2Q/FY23 Growth

We believe JD is likely to report 1Q23 around mid-May, which we expect to be relatively in-line with our/consensus forecast.

However, as broader macro and consumption sentiment has been recovering at a slower-than-expected pace, together with JD’s proactive adjustment of its general merchandise categories and more intensified competitive landscape, we lower our 2Q23, FY2023-25E growth assumptions to reflect slower rebound of top line.

With the announcement and filing of upcoming listing plans for JD Property and JD Industrial, we also update our SOTP methodology.

With lower estimates, our revised SOTP is adjusted to US$68 (from US$83). JD is currently trading at 15x/13x our 2023E/2024E group earnings, or 12x/10x if excluding JD Retail-only net cash, which we view as undemanding.

Maintain Buy. While we view the current share price as attractive, we believe the share price is likely to be range-bound until JD delivers reaccelerated top-line growth.

Source: Citi

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JD.com (9618 HK)
1Q23 Results Preview: Reorganisation Pressuring Top-Line Growth

JD is in the process of restructuring and is shifting its focus to 3P sales. Thus, it is forecasting a weak top-line growth for 2023.

JD will streamline its organisational structure to increase agility and operational efficiency.

We expect the recovery of JD’s top-line performance to be dampened by weaker visibility stemming from a slower recovery in electronic products and home appliances.

Maintain BUY with a lower target price of HK267.00 (US$72.00).

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... 900c87792c