Ajisen 538

Re: Ajisen 538

Postby eauyong » Mon Apr 20, 2009 12:05 pm

Some comment FYI.
Ajisen(538): Unattractive
10:33

Ajisen(538) announced that its FY08 net profit had slumped by 5% to $220M, which implied the ramen concept had lost the attractiveness, as this business had a high PE of nearly 20 times. Now it is trading at $4.29, down by 11%, with turnover of $8.1M.
User avatar
eauyong
Foreman
 
Posts: 380
Joined: Sat May 10, 2008 11:01 am

Re: Ajisen 538

Postby winston » Mon Apr 20, 2009 12:08 pm

Hi eauyong,

May I know which house the above comment was from ?

Thanks and take care,
Winston
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 104556
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Ajisen 538

Postby winston » Mon Apr 20, 2009 12:09 pm

DJ MARKET TALK: Ajisen Down 11.5%; But Shenyin Wanguo Ups Target

1042 [Dow Jones] Ajisen (China) (0538.HK) down 11.5% at HK$4.29, but likely in part due to profit-taking, with stock at Friday's close +50.6% vs March 9 close. Volume heavy at HK$8.2 million, early low of HK$4.20 immediate support. Shenyin Wanguo Research tips slower expansion pace in 1H09, with management cautious on network expansion, attaching more importance to cost control.

House believes pace of China's economic recovery will continue throughout 2009, tips there should be more people dining out, benefiting catering industry. House raises Ajisen's FY09-10 EPS forecasts to 28 HK cents vs 26 HK cents, 36 HK cents vs 30 HK cents respectively after better-than-expected FY08 results, accordingly raises target price to HK$4.20 from HK$3.80, keeps Outperform call
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 104556
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Ajisen 538

Postby winston » Mon Apr 20, 2009 12:12 pm

DJ MARKET TALK: Ajisen's Valuation Likely Justified By Growth

0931 [Dow Jones] More meaningful to look at Ajisen (China)'s (0538.HK) FY08 earnings from core businesses, which exclude one-off exceptional items, to gauge business performance; while FY08 net profit down 4.6% at HK$221 million, earnings for core restaurant operations +31.1% to HK$170 million last year, on continued chain store expansion, with total number of restaurants further increasing to 338 at date of earnings announcement vs 315 at end-2008, 210 at end-2007.

Stock trading at 30.5X trailing core P/E seems expensive, but likely justified by still fast-growing business, with FY09-10 P/E dropping to 16.4X, 13.7X, according to Thomson Reuters. Final dividend 5.25 HK cents/share vs 5.85 HK cents year-earlier, but also special dividend of 4.20 HK cents, combined yielding 1.9%. Stock ended +1.9% at HK$4.85 Friday; hasn't traded above psychological HK$5.00 since September 2008, set to remain near-term cap.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 104556
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Ajisen 538

Postby eauyong » Mon Apr 20, 2009 12:55 pm

winston wrote:Hi eauyong,

May I know which house the above comment was from ?

Thanks and take care,
Winston


This Market Snapshot is from reporters of quamnet and the house is not mentioned. :)
User avatar
eauyong
Foreman
 
Posts: 380
Joined: Sat May 10, 2008 11:01 am

Re: Ajisen 538

Postby winston » Tue Apr 21, 2009 11:15 am

Thxs eauyong for your kind reply.

============================================

DJ Ajisen China Seeks Acquisitions During Economic Downturn


HONG KONG (Dow Jones)--Restaurant chain operator Ajisen China Holdings Ltd. (0538.HK) is seeking acquisition opportunities in China and overseas as the global downturn makes prices of potential targets attractive, Chief Executive Daisy Poon said. "There are lots of acquisition opportunities in the market as small restaurants may find it difficult to continue with operations during the economic downturn," Poon said in an interview with Dow Jones Newswires Monday.

"We prefer to acquire companies that could help us to expand our networks," she said. Poon said the company, which sells Japanese ramen under the Ajisen brand in Hong Kong and China, expects to open 90 shops this year, bringing the total number of its restaurants to 405 by the end of December. However, it is opening fewer restaurants this year compared with last year's 105.

Ajisen has earmarked HK$400 million for capital expenditure this year, of which HK$140 million will be used for opening new restaurants. Its capital expenditure last year was HK$386 million
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 104556
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Ajisen 538

Postby winston » Wed Apr 22, 2009 9:38 am

DJ MARKET TALK: Ajisen Off 6.7%;Store Efficiency A Challenge-ICEA

1550 [Dow Jones] Ajisen (0538.HK) down 6.7% at HK$4.15, extending Monday's 8.2% fall after FY08 results, likely due to extended profit-taking as stock still +51.4% vs end-February level. Also, "It is a challenge for the management to strengthen store efficiency to boost operating statistics," says ICEA.

Notes over past 3 years, company already added 259 restaurants, while it closed 9 stores in FY08, with 4-5 stores closed due to relocation issue; adds it's possible to cut some underperforming stores in foreseeable future given weak economic conditions. Notes valuation-wise, counter at around 18X-20X FY09 P/E, which looks fair. House doesn't rate stock. Early low of HK$3.80 as good support for now
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 104556
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Ajisen 538

Postby winston » Wed May 27, 2009 2:05 pm

Not vested anymore.

It looks like someone is playing with this counter. The counter zoomed up to a range high of $5.20 about a month ago, just before the Earnings Announcement. Thereafter, it promptly dropped to about 3.75 ( 28% drop ). It is now back to about 5.05.

Today, someone also put in a huge sell order of about 300,000 @ 4.95. When the short term traders saw the big sell order, they quickly sold at 4.94. Thereafter, that huge sell order was removed and the share price was pushed up to a high of 5.15.

The PE is 25. EPS Growth is -8%. Not cheap. But revenue is growing at 30%. The weak EPS growth could be due to the one-time expenses associated with the opening of new stores. ( Expecting about 90 new stores in 2009 ).

The behaviour of the share price today, made me very uncomfortable and I sold off all of my holdings. From my own observations, this type of share movement also normally precedes a Share Placement ...

Not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the info above at your own risk. It's for my own records and to help me crystallize my thinking on this counter.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 104556
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Ajisen 538

Postby winston » Thu May 28, 2009 6:44 am

Forgot to mention the following:-

Recently, I was at my fav Ajisen Store on Financial Street, BJ. This is the one opposite the Lane Crawford Centre.

I was surprized that it was not that busy compared to the previous times I have been there. My friend told me that it's probably due to the hot weather in BJ. People dont want to eat hot noodles during summer.

I have been coming to this particular store since they open 2 years ago and did not notice any slowdown in traffic until now..
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 104556
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

Re: Ajisen 538

Postby winston » Wed Jun 24, 2009 10:39 am

Not vested anymore.

I checked out a few Ajisens in BJ & SH recently.

Business was not too bad despite the hot summer. Their cold noodles is selling quite well.

Still on my watchlist. PE is 25 and not cheap. There's support at 4.50, 4.20 and 3.85. Strong Resistance at 5.50.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
User avatar
winston
Billionaire Boss
 
Posts: 104556
Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am

PreviousNext

Return to A to B

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest