Air China 0753

Re: Air China 0753

Postby winston » Fri Jan 16, 2009 3:11 pm

DJ MARKET TALK: Guoco Capital Upgrades Air China To Hold Vs Sell

1207 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Guoco Capital upgrades Air China (0753.HK) to Hold from Sell on view valuations attractive; sets target at HK$2.00 based on 0.7X book value.

Notes December returnable passenger kilometers (RPK) +1.3% on-year for domestic routes, but RPK for international routes down 4.6%. "We believe the traffic decline for international routes will continue in the first quarter of 2009 as the U.S., Europe and Japan all entered into recession," says Guoco Capital.

Tips Air China to record loss/share at 28 fen for 2008, mainly due to huge hedging losses and 37% rise in fuel cost; tips 2009 EPS at 1 fen. Stock +1.1% at HK$1.83.
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Re: Air China 0753

Postby winston » Wed Feb 04, 2009 1:34 pm

Shares in Air China (0753.HK), the mainland' flag carrier, rose 6.1 percent after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock to buy as it expects an improved performance from the airline in 2009-2010, helped by a rebound in passenger traffic, government support measures and lower jet fuel prices.

The investment house also said negative news related to fuel-hedging losses and poor passenger traffic in 2008 had been factored into the stock price.
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Re: Air China 0753

Postby winston » Thu Aug 13, 2009 11:11 am

Not vested. From Phillips:-

Risk

Economic recession dampens transportation demand;
Crude oil prices fluctuate violently;
RMB depreciation cause foreign exchange loss;
War, terrorist attacks, SARS and other emergencies;
Competition through price-cuts may accelerate


Valuation

Despite the lack of exchange gains, while the reverse huge fair value loss which used to be the most killer for performance implies the worst time had passed. In our opinion, though the Company's cargo business is hovering at the bottom yet, the strong rebounding of domestic passenger traffic and recovering of parts of international routes brought positive impact on performance.

As for the valuation, the average P/E ratios of the Asian-Pacific airlines considered as the most optimistic ones stood at 20 times, SIA at 19. Based on a comprehensive consideration for the Company, we conservatively give P/E 16 x 2010, 12-month target price at HK$5.8, 32.7% higher than the current price, therefore BUY rating.

( Airlines being priced at PE 20 with no growth and Swine Flu ? )
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Re: Air China 0753

Postby winston » Thu Dec 10, 2009 1:17 pm

Not vested. From UOBKH:-

Earnings Risk/Recommendation

We lower our 2010 and 2011 net profit forecasts by 32% and 54% respectively. We downgrade the stock to a SELL from a BUY and cut our fair value to HK$4.65 from HK$6.10. The new fair price is derived by valuing the stock at 9.6x EV/EBITDA, which is a 20% discount to long-term mean multiple of 12x. Even at this rating, the stock's rating is higher than that of the international North Asia Peer group, which trades at an average of 8.5x 2010F EV/EBITDA.
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Re: Air China 0753

Postby winston » Wed Jan 20, 2010 12:00 pm

Not vested. From Phillips:-


Risk

Economic recession dampens transportation demand;
Crude oil prices fluctuate violently;
RMB depreciation cause foreign exchange loss;
War, terrorist attacks, pandemic and other emergencies;
Competition through price-cuts may accelerate


Valuation

It is reported that Domestic Tourist stimulate package would be released in 2010, which will help to boost domestic aviation demand apparently. What's more, the Shanghai Expo from May 2010, with duration of 6 months, is expected to bring substantive demand on aviation. The RMB1.5 billion cash injection from the government will strengthen its balance sheet. The only negatives remained in the slowly rising oil price.

We raised our EPS forecast of 2009 and 2010 to be RMB 0.386 and 0.381 yuan. As for the valuation, the average forecast P/E ratios of the Asian-Pacific airlines considered as the most optimistic ones stood at 23 times, Europe at 21 and SIA at 19.

Based on a comprehensive consideration for the Company, we conservatively give P/E 18 x 2010E EPS, 12-month target price at HK$7.79, 18% higher than the last close, therefore BUY rating.
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Re: Air China 0753

Postby winston » Tue Jul 20, 2010 2:52 pm

Not vested. From Phillips:-

Risk
Economic recession dampens transportation demand;
Crude oil prices fluctuate violently;
RMB depreciation cause foreign exchange loss;
War, terrorist attacks, pandemic and other emergencies;
Competition through price-cuts may accelerate


Valuation
The logistic we mentioned in our annual strategy report that the improvement between air demand and supply will inevitably drive profit growth of airlines greatly. As the most profitable domestic airline, Air China's flight network will be optimized.

We raised our EPS forecast of 2010 and 2011 to be RMB 0.726 and 0.818 yuan. As for the valuation, the average forecast P/E ratios of the Asian-Pacific airlines considered as the most optimistic ones stood at 17 times, Europe at 9 and SIA at 10.

Based on a comprehensive consideration for the Company, we conservatively give P/E 11 x 2011E EPS, 12-month target price at HK$10.23, 24% higher than the last close, therefore BUY rating.
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Re: Air China 0753

Postby winston » Fri Dec 10, 2010 10:50 am

Not vested. From Phillips:-


Risk
Economic recession dampens transportation demand;
Crude oil prices fluctuate violently;
RMB depreciation cause foreign exchange loss;
War, terrorist attacks, pandemic and other emergencies;
Competition through price-cuts may accelerate


Valuation
According to its 3Q results, we raised our EPS forecast of 2010 and 2011 to be Rmb 0.84 and 0.87 yuan. As for the valuation, the average forecast P/E ratios of the Asian-Pacific airlines considered as the most optimistic ones stood at 11 times, Europe at 9 and SIA at 11.

Based on a comprehensive consideration for the Company, we conservatively give P/E 11 x 2011E EPS, 12-month target price at HK$11.1, 19.6% higher than the last close, therefore BUY rating.
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Re: Air China 0753

Postby winston » Fri Jan 14, 2011 12:06 pm

Not vested. And what about high oil prices ?

DJ MARKET TALK: UOB Lowers Air China Target To HK$12.30;Keeps Buy

1147 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UOB KayHian lowers Air China's (0753.HK) target to HK$12.30 from HK$13.80, but maintains a Buy call.

The house lowers Air China's domestic traffic growth forecast for 2011 to 4.0% from 7.0%, and says part of this is due to the earlier-than-expected commencement of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail expected in June 2011.

UOB assumes 20% of passengers on that route to divert to the HSR, which should cut 2 percentage points of growth; still, it says the lower capacity will lead to higher loads and partially offset the decline in revenue.

The stock is up 0.4% at HK$9.21, not boosted much by news it expects FY10 net profit to more than double.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire
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Re: Air China 0753

Postby winston » Tue Nov 08, 2011 3:33 pm

not vested

Valuation

According to its 2011Q3 results, the drawback of FY2011 result is cast.

We believe that the future recovery of international demand is the catalyst of Air China's stock performance, for its dual effect on its main business and investment income from Cathay Pacific.

We revised our EPS forecast of 2011 and 2012 to be RMB 0.76 and 0.74 yuan.

Air China is trading at 7.0x FY11e P/E and 7.2x FY12e P/E. Based on a comprehensive consideration for the Company, we conservatively give P/E 7.5 x 2012E EPS, 12-month target price at HK$6.77, 5% higher than the last close, therefore Hold rating.


Risk
1. Economic recession dampens transportation demand;
2. Crude oil prices fluctuate violently;
3. RMB depreciation cause foreign exchange loss;
4. War, terrorist attacks, pandemic and other emergencies;
5. Competition through price-cuts may accelerate;
6. High-speed railway competitions.

Source: Phillips
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Re: Air China 0753

Postby winston » Mon Nov 28, 2011 3:07 pm

not vested

DJ MARKET TALK: Air China's Valuation Attractive, CLSA Keeps At Buy

1452 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: With the recent share price decline being the worst in the sector yet forward demand and utilization remaining high, CLSA finds the valuation of Air China (0753.HK) attractive after the stock's 18% collapse over the past two weeks.

Air China is now trading at forward P/B at 1.03X, which is approaching the trough levels seen in late-2008 and early 2009 when demand was particularly weak and swine flu was rising; historically the average since IPO has been 1.92X.

"We believe that short-term demand will improve from both a growth and rising load factor perspective."

It keeps the stock at Buy with a HK$8.50 target. Air China is up 0.4% at HK$5.57.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire
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