AIA Group 1299

Re: AIA Group 1299

Postby winston » Mon Oct 03, 2016 11:44 am

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<Research Report>C Suisse Lifts AIA Target to $60.6; Expects 3FQ VONB to Rise 20.5%

Credit Suisse, in its report, reinstated the rating Outperform on AIA (01299.HK) and lifted its target price from $59 to $60.6, as well as raising the FY16E earnings forecast by 14% with regional equities growth and flattish FX performance.

AIA performed better in 2H16 so far than 1H16 in the equity markets.

With continuously falling bond yields, the broker expected AIA to revise down its bond yields and RDR assumptions.

For 3Q FY16, the broker expected a 19% VONB growth, higher than brokers' consensus of 17.8%; on constant exchange rate basis, the VONB growth could be 20.5%, also above brokers' consensus of 19.8%.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: AIA Group 1299

Postby winston » Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:17 am

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Macro tailwinds & better China growth

AIA will release 3Q16 results on 14 Oct (Fri) pre-market.

We expect 20%/22% VNB growth for 3Q16E on an actual/constant FX basis, driven by HK/China and Malaysia.

After reviewing key market trends, we raise our TP by 12% to HKD63 to reflect:
1) higher China VNB on strong growth quality;
2) higher group EV/VNB on recovery in Asian FX/equities; and
3) rolling valuation forward.

Our TP implies 2.0x P/EV and 15.4x VNB for FY17E, while the stock is trading at 1.7x P/EV and 10.8x VNB. Reiterate BUY.

Source: Kim Eng
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Re: AIA Group 1299

Postby winston » Thu Oct 06, 2016 11:21 am

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<Research Report>Deutsche Predicts AIA 3FQ VNB Up 26% on Strong Chinese Demand

Deutsche Bank, in its report, said the VNB of AIA (01299.HK) in 3FQ will rise 24.1% yearly or 26% in constant exchange rate to US$685 million, which is at high-end of consensus range.

The broker expected this to be driven by a strong annualized new premium growth and relatively flat new business margin.

According to the trends seen in 1H16, Deutsche Bank expected that the strong growth to be driven by Hong Kong and China, as well as Malaysia, while Thailand, Singapore and other markets stay relatively muted.

The broker reiterated Buy on AIA and expected it to remain a core holding for investors thanks to its consistency in delivering results, strong capital position and unique competitive position in Asia, with target price of $63.3.

Asian currencies and equity markets have turned positive since 2Q16. The broker estimated that the average yearly currency impact on VNB to narrow to -1.4% in 3Q16 (vs -4.4% in 2Q16 and -7.6% in 1Q16).

Asian equity markets climbed by an average of 5.3% in 3Q16, while bond yields have continued to trend down, current average 10-year government yields is 104bps lower than AIA?s 2016 assumptions.

The broker expected AIA to lower bond yields assumptions in 2016, but the impacts should be fairly limited, as the strong underlying VNB growth can offset negative rate impacts.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: AIA Group 1299

Postby winston » Fri Oct 07, 2016 11:19 am

<Research Report>G Sachs Expects AIA 3Q VONB US$670M; Rises 24% YoY on Constant Exchange Rates

Goldman Sachs, in its report, predicted AIA (01299.HK) 3Q value of new business (VONB) to be US$670 million.

On actual exchange rates, VONB saw a yearly rise of 22% while delivered a gain of 24% on constant exchange rates.

The research house reiterated AIA at Buy and the target price raised to $59 from $57.

The research house believed that the insurer 2H VONB will grow roughly 19% in which its strong Hong Kong business is likely to help the company to beat the estimates.

In particular, the Mainland visitors' business, which saw a substantial growth starting from August 2015. It is expected to nomalize at some points and factor in slower growth in 2017, yet 3Q16 growth remained strong.

In addition, Goldman Sachs said AIA continued to focus on high-end health products and China VONB growth was expected to be 38% in the third quarter (1H: 49%).

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: AIA Group 1299

Postby winston » Tue Oct 11, 2016 6:43 am

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As mainlanders now account for 24.2 percent of Hong Kong's insurance sales, you should have AIA (1299) in your portfolio.

The firm is scheduled to release its third-quarter operating update on October 14.

Morgan Stanley sees in AIA's base case the value of new business at US$681 million (HK$5.29 billion), up 23 percent year on year. That implies underlying growth of 25 percent.

Morgan maintains an overweight rating on AIA, with a target price of HK$60.

Source: Dr Check, The Standard
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Re: AIA Group 1299

Postby winston » Fri Oct 14, 2016 9:04 am

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<Blue Chip Results>AIA 3Q VONB US$689M, Up 27% on Constant Exchange Rates


AIA (01299.HK) announced the results for the third quarter ended 31 August 2016.

The value of new business (VONB) on constant exchange rates grew 27% yearly to US$689 million, while increasing 25% from a year earlier on actual exchange rates.

During the period, annualised new premiums (ANP) amounted to US$1.333 billion, which delivered a yearly rise of 44% on constant exchange rates and climbed 42% yearly on actual exchange rates.

Total weighted premium income (TWPI) reached US$5,678 million, up 17% yearly in terms of both constant and actual exchange rates. VONB margin was 50.7%, down 6.8 ppts yearly on constant exchange rates.

For the first three financial quarters, the value of new business (VONB) totaled US$1.949 billion, showing a yearly increase of 33% and 29% for constant exchange rates and actual exchange rates respectively.

During the period, annualised new premiums (ANP) amounted to US$3.688 billion, which delivered a yearly rise of 36% on constant exchange rates and climbed 31% yearly on actual exchange rates.

Total weighted premium income (TWPI) equaled US$16.01 billion. VONB margin was 52%, down 0.8 ppts yearly on constant exchange rates.

The group's Hong Kong business delivered another excellent quarter of VONB growth driven by a significant increase in active agent productivity and an excellent result from partnership business.

AIA continued to benefit from a strong performance in the domestic Hong Kong market and a positive uplift in new business from mainland Chinese customers.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: AIA Group 1299

Postby winston » Fri Oct 14, 2016 9:23 am

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AIA Group Slips Over Thailand Exposure: Buy On Dip?


By Shuli Ren

Insurance giant AIA Group (1299.Hong Kong)’s shares tumbled 4.6% this week, in part because of its exposure to Thailand. In 2015, Thailand accounted for 18% of AIA’s value of new business, a key measure of insurer’s ongoing revenue and profit.

But AIA is poised to open higher today.

AIA said that in the third quarter, value of new business, a key measure of revenue growth for insurance companies, rose 27% to $689 million. The street had expected 23% growth.

AIA attributed third-quarter’s beat to Hong Kong, China and Malaysia. In Hong Kong, AIA noted “a positive uplift in new business from mainland Chinese customers”. In other words, Beijing’s attempt to clamp down on buying overseas insurance has not created much of a dent at AIA.

AIA sounded positive with its business outlook. “Life insurance markets in Asia will continue to benefit from the significant structural economic and demographic trends”, noted the insurer in the filing.

As for Thailand, AIA wrote:
The entire AIA Group wishes to express our deepest condolences and sympathy to the Royal Family and to the people of Thailand during this time of great sadness. We join the people of Thailand in mourning the death of King Bhumibol Adulyadej, who will always be remembered as a remarkable individual who served Thailand with great distinction.

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... uy-on-dip/
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Re: AIA Group 1299

Postby winston » Fri Oct 14, 2016 9:23 am

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AIA Group Slips Over Thailand Exposure: Buy On Dip?


By Shuli Ren

Insurance giant AIA Group (1299.Hong Kong)’s shares tumbled 4.6% this week, in part because of its exposure to Thailand. In 2015, Thailand accounted for 18% of AIA’s value of new business, a key measure of insurer’s ongoing revenue and profit.

But AIA is poised to open higher today.

AIA said that in the third quarter, value of new business, a key measure of revenue growth for insurance companies, rose 27% to $689 million. The street had expected 23% growth.

AIA attributed third-quarter’s beat to Hong Kong, China and Malaysia. In Hong Kong, AIA noted “a positive uplift in new business from mainland Chinese customers”. In other words, Beijing’s attempt to clamp down on buying overseas insurance has not created much of a dent at AIA.

AIA sounded positive with its business outlook. “Life insurance markets in Asia will continue to benefit from the significant structural economic and demographic trends”, noted the insurer in the filing.

As for Thailand, AIA wrote:
The entire AIA Group wishes to express our deepest condolences and sympathy to the Royal Family and to the people of Thailand during this time of great sadness. We join the people of Thailand in mourning the death of King Bhumibol Adulyadej, who will always be remembered as a remarkable individual who served Thailand with great distinction.

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... uy-on-dip/
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Re: AIA Group 1299

Postby winston » Mon Oct 31, 2016 7:28 am

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This week opens with a focus on the business of mainlanders being prevented from buying life insurance policies in Hong Kong on their Union Pay cards.

With that in mind, AIA (1299) and Prudential (2378) will probably face big sellng pressure today.

Mainlanders crossing the border in the previous quarter bought insurance policies worth HK$16.9 billion, accounting for 40 percent of new policies.

The pattern has also seen Hong Kong insurance agents enjoying big increases in incomes in last few years. Perhaps they will need to think of some new channels to maintain those incomes.

Source: Dr Check. The Standard
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Re: AIA Group 1299

Postby winston » Mon Oct 31, 2016 9:29 am

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How Will AIA Be Affected As China UnionPay Restricts Hong Kong Insurance Purchases?

By Shuli Ren

China banned mainland Chinese visitors to Hong Kong from using their UnionPay credit cards to purchase savings-type life insurance policies in Hong Kong, the most draconian measure so far towards Hong Kong’s insurance market.

This is China’s latest attempt to restrict capital outflow.

According to the new rule, mainland Chinese can still purchase pure protection insurances, such as accident, illness and tourism-related policies. However, other programs are “strictly banned”.

In the first half this year, mainland visitors purchased a total of 30.1 billion Hong Kong dollars of insurance products, already on part with the HK$31.6 billion total in 2015.

Insurer AIA Group (1299.Hong Kong) tumbled early February when rumors first surfaced that China would ban mainland Chinese from buying overseas insurance policies, but the Asian insurer’s shares have recovered since on stellar earnings and improving emerging markets sentiments.

How would the latest bombshell affect AIA’s earnings? Bernstein Research‘s Linda Sun-Mattison estimates this new ban can wipe out 10% of AIA’s 2017 sales:

AIA generated c.15% of Group sales from the MCV in YTD June 2016. We estimate that a full implementation of UnionPay ban could reduce our current AIA Hong Kong 2017 sales by 30% to USD1.3bn, implying a 10% reduction to our current 2017 Group sales to USD4.7bn. But the pain will ease off from 2018.

As a result long term EPS and BV growth could be marginally down by 1-2pt. This ban does not affect renewal premiums of in force policies so will not affect AIA’s current EV whilst future EV growth could be hurt by c1-2pt.

But what would happen to AIA’s valuation? AIA last traded at 18.9 times forward earnings, above its five-year average of 17.1 times. This stock has gained 10.3% this year.

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... purchases/
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