AIA Group 1299

Re: AIA Group 1299

Postby winston » Mon Jul 25, 2016 11:20 am

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<Research Report>JPM Expects AIA (01299.HK) Interim Net Profit to Drop 32% to US$1.487B

JP Morgan, in its report, projected AIA (01299.HK) 1H16 net profit to drop 32% yearly to US$1.487 billion, mainly affected by market volatility.

However, operating profit after-tax (OPAT) was expected to have grown by 7% yearly to US$1.933 billion.

The interim dividend was expected to increase 15% yearly to HK21.5 cents. Target price was HK$57 with rating Overweight.

The broker said AIA was a life insurer with the best Asian share price YTD (+5% vs peers -20%). Accompanied by a strong balance sheet, the company?s high-new business value (NBV) growth expectations in 1H16 may support the strong share performance.

The broker believed AIA should adopt more active capital measures to shore up share price, for example share buy-backs or higher dividend payouts to attract income funds.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: AIA Group 1299

Postby winston » Tue Jul 26, 2016 3:36 pm

<Result Foresight>Brokers Expect AIA Interim VONB to Grow 28-38% YoY (Table)(Update)

AIA (01299.HK) will announce the interim result ended 31 May 2016 on 28 July (Thursday). 1

3 brokers expected AIA's 1HFY16 VONB range to be between US$1.226-1.323 billion, up US$959 million than a year ago, up 27.8% and 38% (in fixed exchange rate); median is about US$1.254 billion, up 30.8% yearly.

Brokers/ Interim VONB (US$)/ Yearly Change (in fixed exchange rate)
China Merchants Securities (HK)/ 1.323 billion/ +38%
Kim Eng Securities/ 1.314 billion/ +37%
BOC International/ 1.296 billion/ +35.1%
Jefferies/ 1.285 billion/ +34%
Credit Suisse/ 1.266 billion/ +32%
HSBC/ 1.266 billion/ +32%
UBS/ 1.254 billion/ +30.8%
Goldman Sachs/ 1.242 billion/ +30%
Morgan Stanley/ 1.242 billion/ +30%
Deutsche Bank/ 1.23 billion/ +28.3%
Nomura/ 1.229 billion/ +28.2%
Bank of America Merrill Lynch/ 1.228 billion/ +28.0%
Macquarie/ 1.226 billion/ +27.8%
#AIA FY15 Interim VONB was US$959 million

7 brokers forecasted the AIA 1HFY16 embedded value to be between US$39.012-40.59 billion, up 1.1%-5.2%, median is about US$39.836, up 3.2% yearly.

Brokers/ Embedded Value (US$)/ Yearly Change
HSBC/ 40.59 billion/ +5.2%
Bank of America Merrill Lynch/ 40.14 billion/ +4%
Macquarie/ 39.877 billion/ +3.3%
Jefferies/ 39.795 billion/ +3.1%
Deutsche Bank/ 39.379 billion/ +2.0%
Goldman Sachs/ 39.238 billion/ +1.6%
JPMorgan/ 39.012 billion/ +1.1%
#AIA FY15 Interim embedded value was US$38.598 billion

7 brokers forecasted AIA 1HFY16 net profit to be between US$1.487-1.875 billion, a fall of 14% and 31.4% when compared to US$2.18 billion a year ago. Median is about US$1.624 billion, down 25.5% yearly.

Brokers/ Interim Net Profit Forecast (US$)/ Yearly Change
Jefferies/ 1.875 billion/ -14%
China Merchants Securities (HK)/ 1.7 billion/ -22%
Bank of America Merrill Lynch/ 1.635 billion/ -25%
Deutsche Bank/ 1.624 billion/ -25.5%
BOC International/ 1.575 billion/ -27.8%
HSBC/ 1.496 billon/ -31.4%
JPMorgan/ 1.487 billion/ -31.8%
#AIA FY15 Interim net profit was US$2.18 billion

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: AIA Group 1299

Postby winston » Thu Jul 28, 2016 3:32 pm

<Research Report>C Suisse: AIA China, HK Biz Stands Out; Agency Channel Remains Strong

Credit Suisse, in its report, said AIA (01299.HK)'s 1H16 result showed that VONB was up 31% yearly to US$1.26 billion (broadly in line with Credit Suisse estimates of US$1.266 billion; 37% growth on constant currency basis, beating market consensus of 35%).

This is a record 1H VONB growth rate since IPO. OPAT (operating profit after tax) up 9% yearly (up 14% on constant FX, beating market consensus of 12%).

EV was up 5% when compared to 2H15, above market consensus of 3%.

In terms of VONB, Hong Kong and China stood out with over 50% growth and 30% growth was recorded in Malaysia in 1H16, while a positive VONB trend in Singapore and other markets was seen in 1H16.

Continued strength in margin (up 2 ppts yearly to 86.8%) was observed, and pleasing and continued strength in agency growth represented 69% total group 1H16 VONB, causing strong 1H16 result.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: AIA Group 1299

Postby winston » Thu Jul 28, 2016 3:34 pm

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<Research Report>JPM: AIA Strong Interim Results with Div Increase; Expects Positive Share Price Reaction

JP Morgan, in its report, stated its opinion that AIA (01299.HK) had a strong interim results with NBV growth and dividend growth better than expected.

Resilient balance sheet could support capital management.

The broker believed that there was a positive share price reaction, hence maintained the rating Overweight with target price of $57.

The broker believed that at the current level, the scale of capital allocation was one of the factors pushing up the stock price.

The bank also said that AIA's dividend increase has always been 15% and expected the 2016 full-year dividend to comply with this guidance.

The interim dividend increased by 17% reflected strong balance sheet and had a better commitment on the return to minority shareholders.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: AIA Group 1299

Postby winston » Thu Jul 28, 2016 4:06 pm

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Insurer AIA Unveils Strong Growth, 17% Dividend Hike

By Robert Guy

AIA Group (1299.HK) shares have been enjoying a 32% rally since mid-February and investors in the pan-Asian insurer have had that faith rewarded with a solid first half result and a 17% increase in interim dividend.

The insurer said the value of new business – an industry benchmark for profitability – rose 37% in the first half thanks to strong growth in its China and Hong Kong business.

Broker Jefferies said the result exceeded their forecast for 34% growth and consensus estimates for 35% growth.

Embedded value, which measures the present value of future profits plus net asset value – rose roughly 5% to just over $40 billion, boosted by the increase in the value of new business.

The interim dividend was lifted 17% from the same time last year.

Jefferies rates the stock a buy, noting that it trades at a 2017 price-to-embedded value multiple of 1.61 times, broadly in line it with its historical average.

The shares were last trading at HKD49.45, down 0.4%.

Source: Barron's Asia
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Re: AIA Group 1299

Postby winston » Fri Jul 29, 2016 7:50 am

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New business cheer sounds for AIA

by Daisy Wu

Driven by strong sales in its key markets, Hong Kong and the mainland, AIA Group (1299) reported a 37-percent year-on-year rise in new business for the first half of its year to May 31.

The value of new business, which measures expected profits from new premiums and is a key gauge for growth, surged to US$1.26 billion (HK$9.8 billion) in the period - the first time US$1 billion has been topped.

The company declared an interim dividend of 21.9 HK cents per share, a 17-percent jump from 12 months earlier. But its shares fell 1.21 percent to HK$49.05 yesterday.

Hong Kong, AIA's largest market, saw the value of new business soar 60 percent to US$537 million, with half from visiting mainlanders.

Chief executive Mark Tucker said the trend of mainland visitors buying policies in Hong Kong has been noted for 15 years and will continue.

But those visitors account for less than 10 percent of the Hong Kong unit's existing policies, added group chief actuary Foong Sai-cheong in highlighting the potential for further growth.

AIA's first-half new business growth in the mainland increased by 56 percent to US$278 million, and it is on course to exceed Hong Kong given that its protection gap is more than 50 times of that in Hong Kong - a sum of some US$32 trillion.

Also in the latest showing, AIA's after-tax operating profit climbed 9 percent to US$1.96 billion in the six months to May 31 with business growth in Hong Kong and China helping to offset weaker stock markets and regional currencies.

And net profit, which includes paper losses of US$359 million on stock investments, declined 6 percent to US$2.1 billion, or 17.2 US cents per share.

Source: The Standard
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Re: AIA Group 1299

Postby winston » Fri Aug 05, 2016 1:12 pm

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<Research Report>JP Morgan Raises AIA Target to $65; Rated Overweight


JP Morgan, in its report, said that AIA (01299.HK) has vigorous free surplus generation, strong product mix enhancement and a higher DPS increase, together with more than 12% growth in embedded value, which sent share prices steadily higher.

The research house said that investors anticipate the new business value of the company to achieve a double-digit growth in the upcoming three years, with better capital deployment and more elastic annual earnings growth.

JP Morgan raised AIA's target price from $57 to $65 and the rating was maintained at Overweight.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: AIA Group 1299

Postby winston » Thu Sep 08, 2016 10:16 am

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AIA: Chinese Can’t Have Enough Hong Kong Insurance; Deutsche Now Sees 25% Upside

By Shuli Ren

AIA Group (1299.Hong Kong) has advanced 10.8% this year, on the back of strong earnings, but this Asian insurer’s share gain has been capped on concerns that the Chinese government will prevent mainland Chinese from buying Hong Kong insurance products further as a way to stem more capital flight.

We found out yesterday that in August, capital was leaving China again at the fastest pace since January. China’s foreign currency reserves fell $16 billion from July.

According to Deutsche Bank‘s Esther Chwei, tighter border control has not prevented mainland Chinese from buying Hong Kong insurance policies. If anything, they want more.

Chwei wrote:

The key feedback is that recent regulatory actions to curb sales of HK insurance policies to mainland visitors have not dampened demand. In fact, the depreciation trend in the RMB, low deposit rates in China, and the fear that HK insurance may be entirely banned and no longer available for mainlanders, continue to fuel mainland Chinese demand for HK life insurance policies.

Given the relatively small size of the HK market, we believe there is ample room for further growth. It is likely that HK growth could continue to surprise the market on the upside.

We estimate that ~42% of AIA’s 1H16 VNB was driven by mainland Chinese, combining AIA HK (~22%) and AIA China (20%).

Along with better-than-expected Asian equities/currencies performance, we have raised our 2016E/17E EV and VNB forecasts by 1.3%/1.7% and 4.7%/7.1%, respectively. We raise our target price by 11% to HK$63.3/share.

Deutsche’s price target implies 2.1 times their 2017 book. AIA is currently trading at 2 times 2016 book.

Earlier this week, China decided to crack down on high-risk high-yield insurance policies, which could fuel more capital inflow into the Hong Kong market.

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... 25-upside/
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Re: AIA Group 1299

Postby winston » Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:47 am

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Moody's has affirmed AIA Group's ratings and changed its outlook to positive.

Moody's action reflects the steady improvement and strength in AIA's financial profile, resilience in earnings against capital- market volatility and a low interest rate environment.

It also underscores AIA's strong distribution capabilities and low product risk.

The rating action also reflects AIA's sustained strong business. It enjoys very strong brand recognition, and is one of the top insurers in several markets, including Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Macau and the Philippines.

It ranks among the Top 10 insurers in other markets in the region.

I believe AIA (1299) is a core holding that investors should hold long term. Any dip below HK$50 will make this stock a good bargain.

Source: Dr Check, The Standard
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Re: AIA Group 1299

Postby winston » Wed Sep 28, 2016 5:46 pm

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Daiwa Expects AIA (01299.HK) 3Q VNB to Rise 30% YoY; Reiterated Outperform

Daiwa, in its report, said AIA (01299.HK) +0.350 (+0.674%) Short selling $245.51M; Ratio 27.309% will announce its 3Q16 result in October, and the broker expected its value of new business (VNB) to grow 30% yearly, but the VNB margin should fall yearly given a high base in 3Q15, implying a 32% rise in VNB for the first nine months of 2016, with the VNB margin edging up 1 ppt.

The broker said AIA HK’s ANP growth will continue to remain strong, and its product mix change might bring growth to its VNB, expecting a 45% yearly VNB growth for AIA HK for 3Q16; as for China, due to higher premium income (up 28% yearly for first eight months of 2016) and premier agency strategy, the broker believed its expenses to decline, boosting VNB growth.

The broker said the current calculation of its valuation is based on long-term investment returns for equities and property investments, hence the impact should be minimal. The broker kept the rating Outperform with target price of $55.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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