vested
Benefitting from 4Q underestimation bias
There is a clear bias towards AIA outperforming in 4Q vs. other quarters since its 2010 IPO (Fig 1-2). We expect this to repeat in 4Q23F.
We see AIA benefitting from consensus upgrades to 4Q23F, FY24F & FY25F VONB growth, which we see as too low at 20%, 17% and 16% yoy (Fig 4).
3Q23 results had addressed the main four areas of concern to investors in our view, three of which related to its mainland China business.
Reiterate Add rating, TP unchanged at HK$91. Remains our sector top pick.
Source: CIMB
https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... 18F7BE9CC3
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AIA Group 1299
Re: AIA Group 1299
by winston » Wed Nov 29, 2023 12:16 pm
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Re: AIA Group 1299
by winston » Thu Feb 08, 2024 1:27 pm
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CLSA Reduces AIA (01299.HK) TP to $80, Expects Impressive VONB Growth in 2023/24
CLSA wrote in a report that it has updated its estimates for AIA (01299.HK), expecting the insurer's value of new business (VONB) to perform favourably, with YoY increases of 30% and 14% in 2023 and 2024 respectively.
The broker believed AIA would launch a new buyback programme totalling US$4 billion over the next three years.
In light of the deteriorating sentiment, CLSA lowered its target price for AIA from $94 to $80, but reiterated its Buy rating, reflecting the impressive VONB growth, attractive valuation and recovery in return on embedded value (ROEV).
Related News: Nomura Cuts AIA (01299.HK) TP to $92.68, Expects 2023 VoNB to Hike 30%
Source: AAStocks Financial News
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN
CLSA Reduces AIA (01299.HK) TP to $80, Expects Impressive VONB Growth in 2023/24
CLSA wrote in a report that it has updated its estimates for AIA (01299.HK), expecting the insurer's value of new business (VONB) to perform favourably, with YoY increases of 30% and 14% in 2023 and 2024 respectively.
The broker believed AIA would launch a new buyback programme totalling US$4 billion over the next three years.
In light of the deteriorating sentiment, CLSA lowered its target price for AIA from $94 to $80, but reiterated its Buy rating, reflecting the impressive VONB growth, attractive valuation and recovery in return on embedded value (ROEV).
Related News: Nomura Cuts AIA (01299.HK) TP to $92.68, Expects 2023 VoNB to Hike 30%
Source: AAStocks Financial News
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN
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Re: AIA Group 1299
by winston » Fri Feb 09, 2024 10:42 am
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JPM Elevates AIA (01299.HK) TP to $92, Rating Overweight
JPMorgan commented in a report that AIA (01299.HK) offered attractive risk-adjusted returns on a well-capitalised base across growth, value and income-producing businesses.
The broker has made a small average upward revision of 0.3% to its value of new business (VONB) forecasts for 2023 to 2025, reflecting stronger-than-expected growth trends in both local and Mainland businesses.
JPM raises its target price for AIA from $87 to $92 and rates the company Overweight.
Related News: Nomura Cuts AIA (01299.HK) TP to $92.68, Expects 2023 VoNB to Hike 30%
The broker forecasted that AIA's embedded value will grow by 12% in FY24 and 13% in FY25, driving compounded enterprise value growth.
It also expected AIA's total free capital balance to reach US$16.7 billion by December 2024, taking into account buybacks and dividends.
With growth in self-funding and a strong capital base, there is scope for greater improvement in total shareholder return, the broker believed.
Source: AAStocks Financial News
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN
JPM Elevates AIA (01299.HK) TP to $92, Rating Overweight
JPMorgan commented in a report that AIA (01299.HK) offered attractive risk-adjusted returns on a well-capitalised base across growth, value and income-producing businesses.
The broker has made a small average upward revision of 0.3% to its value of new business (VONB) forecasts for 2023 to 2025, reflecting stronger-than-expected growth trends in both local and Mainland businesses.
JPM raises its target price for AIA from $87 to $92 and rates the company Overweight.
Related News: Nomura Cuts AIA (01299.HK) TP to $92.68, Expects 2023 VoNB to Hike 30%
The broker forecasted that AIA's embedded value will grow by 12% in FY24 and 13% in FY25, driving compounded enterprise value growth.
It also expected AIA's total free capital balance to reach US$16.7 billion by December 2024, taking into account buybacks and dividends.
With growth in self-funding and a strong capital base, there is scope for greater improvement in total shareholder return, the broker believed.
Source: AAStocks Financial News
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN
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Re: AIA Group 1299
by winston » Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:33 am
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Daiwa Estimates AIA (01299.HK)'s 2025-27 New Buyback Scheme to Size US$6-8B
2024/02/02
Daiwa issued a research report expecting AIA (01299.HK) to have capital for further buybacks in 2025, according to the Company's latest capital management framework, which is different from the market's view that there will be no further buybacks after the completion of a buyback at the end of 2024.
In addition, Daiwa expected AIA's new buyback scheme to be US$6 billion to US$8 billion in size, accounting for 6.5% to 8.7% of the market value, over 2025-27.
Related News: Nomura Cuts AIA (01299.HK) TP to $92.68, Expects 2023 VoNB to Hike 30%
AIA's free surplus will increase by an average of approx. US$2.6 billion per annum from 2025 to 2027, after deducting new business investment, progressive dividends and group expenses and finance costs.
Assuming the Company spends less than US$2.6 billion per annum on inorganic growth, Daiwa believed that AIA will have the capability to further buy back shares. Daiwa reiterated rating at Buy, with a target price of $145.
Source: AAStocks Financial News
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/analy ... stock-news
Daiwa Estimates AIA (01299.HK)'s 2025-27 New Buyback Scheme to Size US$6-8B
2024/02/02
Daiwa issued a research report expecting AIA (01299.HK) to have capital for further buybacks in 2025, according to the Company's latest capital management framework, which is different from the market's view that there will be no further buybacks after the completion of a buyback at the end of 2024.
In addition, Daiwa expected AIA's new buyback scheme to be US$6 billion to US$8 billion in size, accounting for 6.5% to 8.7% of the market value, over 2025-27.
Related News: Nomura Cuts AIA (01299.HK) TP to $92.68, Expects 2023 VoNB to Hike 30%
AIA's free surplus will increase by an average of approx. US$2.6 billion per annum from 2025 to 2027, after deducting new business investment, progressive dividends and group expenses and finance costs.
Assuming the Company spends less than US$2.6 billion per annum on inorganic growth, Daiwa believed that AIA will have the capability to further buy back shares. Daiwa reiterated rating at Buy, with a target price of $145.
Source: AAStocks Financial News
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/analy ... stock-news
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Re: AIA Group 1299
by winston » Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:39 am
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BofAS Expects AIA (01299.HK) VNB to Grow 31% Last Yr, with No Surprises in Results
2024/01/24
BofA Securities issued a research report expecting AIA (01299.HK)'s value of new business (VNB) to be US$4.1 billion in 2023, up 31% YoY, implying a 28% YoY increase in actual exchange rate terms in 4Q23.
BofA Securities said that the results were not surprising, mainly due to a 33% growth in 9M23, as well as a well expected seasonal slowdown in 4Q23.
Related News: CLSA Reduces AIA (01299.HK) TP to $80, Expects Impressive VONB Growth in 2023/24
BofA Securities expected embedded value (EV) to rise by 1% YoY to US$69 billion, and operating profit after tax to remain broadly unchanged at US$6.4 billion in 2023, in line with expectations.
BofA Securities said that it is still confident in AIA's business growth, profitability and capital in 2024-25. BofA Securities kept rating at Buy, with a target price of $98.4.
Source: AAStocks Financial News
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/analy ... stock-news
BofAS Expects AIA (01299.HK) VNB to Grow 31% Last Yr, with No Surprises in Results
2024/01/24
BofA Securities issued a research report expecting AIA (01299.HK)'s value of new business (VNB) to be US$4.1 billion in 2023, up 31% YoY, implying a 28% YoY increase in actual exchange rate terms in 4Q23.
BofA Securities said that the results were not surprising, mainly due to a 33% growth in 9M23, as well as a well expected seasonal slowdown in 4Q23.
Related News: CLSA Reduces AIA (01299.HK) TP to $80, Expects Impressive VONB Growth in 2023/24
BofA Securities expected embedded value (EV) to rise by 1% YoY to US$69 billion, and operating profit after tax to remain broadly unchanged at US$6.4 billion in 2023, in line with expectations.
BofA Securities said that it is still confident in AIA's business growth, profitability and capital in 2024-25. BofA Securities kept rating at Buy, with a target price of $98.4.
Source: AAStocks Financial News
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/analy ... stock-news
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Re: AIA Group 1299
by winston » Thu Mar 07, 2024 8:49 am
vested
Benefiting from FY24F-25F underestimation
We see AIA benefiting from beating consensus on 4Q23F, FY24F, and FY25F VONB growth, which we see as too low at 20%, 14%, and 15% yoy (Fig 1)
The remaining sizeable pent-up funds (onshore household non-Rmb deposits) could support the rapid growth of MCV insurance sales in HK in FY24-25F.
AIA’s primary operating regions have a narrower decline in property prices than other regions, mitigating negative household wealth effects in mainland China.
Reiterate Add rating, with unchanged TP of HK$91.
Source: CIMB
https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... F7E343D9D3
Benefiting from FY24F-25F underestimation
We see AIA benefiting from beating consensus on 4Q23F, FY24F, and FY25F VONB growth, which we see as too low at 20%, 14%, and 15% yoy (Fig 1)
The remaining sizeable pent-up funds (onshore household non-Rmb deposits) could support the rapid growth of MCV insurance sales in HK in FY24-25F.
AIA’s primary operating regions have a narrower decline in property prices than other regions, mitigating negative household wealth effects in mainland China.
Reiterate Add rating, with unchanged TP of HK$91.
Source: CIMB
https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... F7E343D9D3
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Re: AIA Group 1299
by winston » Thu Mar 14, 2024 10:05 am
vested
AIA (01299.HK) 2023 VONB US$4.034B, Up 30% on AER, In Line
AIA (01299.HK) announced that in 2023, its value of new business (VONB) grew by 30% YoY to US$4.034 billion in actual exchange rate (AER) terms, in line with the forecasts of US$3.977 billion to US$4.067 billion made by the 10 brokers compiled by our reporters.
On a constant exchange rate (CER) basis, its VONB rose by 33%.
The Group recorded insurance revenue of US$17.514 billion last year, up 7.3% YoY.
Net profit elevated 13% to US$3.764 billion, with basic earnings per share of US$33 cents.
Related NewsRatings, TPs on AIA (01299.HK) (Table)
A final dividend per share of HK$119.07 cents was declared for 2023, compared to HK$113.4 cents for the same period in 2022.
Full-year dividend increased by 5% YoY to HK$161.36 cents, in line with the forecasts of HK$155 cents to HK$164 cents made by the 6 brokers compiled by our reporters.
Last year, US$3.6 billion was returned to shareholders through the share buyback programme.
During the period, the Group's IFRS operating profit after tax was US$6.213 billion, a YoY decrease of 3% in AER terms and 1% in CER terms.
Embedded value operating profit reached US$8.89 billion, lifting 30% YoY on an AER basis and 33% on a CER basis.
Geographically, the Group's VONB in Mainland China last year was US$1.037 billion, up 13% YoY in AER terms and 20% in CER terms.
In Hong Kong, VONB was US$1.43 billion last year, surging 82% YoY in both AER and CER terms.
Thailand VONB reached US$713 million, an AER growth of 22% YoY and a CER growth of 21%.
In March 2022, the Group announced a three-year share buyback programme of up to US$10 billion. Since the launch of the programme, about 740 million shares with a total value of US$7.207 billion had been repurchased at the end of December last year. All shares repurchased have since been cancelled.
Source: AAStocks Financial News
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN
AIA (01299.HK) 2023 VONB US$4.034B, Up 30% on AER, In Line
AIA (01299.HK) announced that in 2023, its value of new business (VONB) grew by 30% YoY to US$4.034 billion in actual exchange rate (AER) terms, in line with the forecasts of US$3.977 billion to US$4.067 billion made by the 10 brokers compiled by our reporters.
On a constant exchange rate (CER) basis, its VONB rose by 33%.
The Group recorded insurance revenue of US$17.514 billion last year, up 7.3% YoY.
Net profit elevated 13% to US$3.764 billion, with basic earnings per share of US$33 cents.
Related NewsRatings, TPs on AIA (01299.HK) (Table)
A final dividend per share of HK$119.07 cents was declared for 2023, compared to HK$113.4 cents for the same period in 2022.
Full-year dividend increased by 5% YoY to HK$161.36 cents, in line with the forecasts of HK$155 cents to HK$164 cents made by the 6 brokers compiled by our reporters.
Last year, US$3.6 billion was returned to shareholders through the share buyback programme.
During the period, the Group's IFRS operating profit after tax was US$6.213 billion, a YoY decrease of 3% in AER terms and 1% in CER terms.
Embedded value operating profit reached US$8.89 billion, lifting 30% YoY on an AER basis and 33% on a CER basis.
Geographically, the Group's VONB in Mainland China last year was US$1.037 billion, up 13% YoY in AER terms and 20% in CER terms.
In Hong Kong, VONB was US$1.43 billion last year, surging 82% YoY in both AER and CER terms.
Thailand VONB reached US$713 million, an AER growth of 22% YoY and a CER growth of 21%.
In March 2022, the Group announced a three-year share buyback programme of up to US$10 billion. Since the launch of the programme, about 740 million shares with a total value of US$7.207 billion had been repurchased at the end of December last year. All shares repurchased have since been cancelled.
Source: AAStocks Financial News
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN
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Re: AIA Group 1299
by winston » Mon Mar 18, 2024 7:27 am
Broker│Opinion
Daiwa│VONB beats, with improvements in China VONB rate
Citi│Continued recovery in annual results
HSBC Global Research│Attractive valuation and strong VONB momentum
Goldman Sachs│Strong growth momentum continues into 2024, with a clearer picture of shareholder returns expected for 1H24
JPMorgan│Management expected to provide more clarity on the use of excess capital following completion of the current buyback program
Nomura│VONB and DPS in line, while embedded value and operating profit after-tax miss
Huatai Securities│Growth in 2024 will face a high base
UBS│VONB strong as expected, 2H VONB rate improved HoH
Related News- JPM Finds AIA (01299.HK) 2023 Results Slightly Beat, but Concerns About Not Disclosing 2M24 Sales
Source: AAStocks Financial News
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN
Daiwa│VONB beats, with improvements in China VONB rate
Citi│Continued recovery in annual results
HSBC Global Research│Attractive valuation and strong VONB momentum
Goldman Sachs│Strong growth momentum continues into 2024, with a clearer picture of shareholder returns expected for 1H24
JPMorgan│Management expected to provide more clarity on the use of excess capital following completion of the current buyback program
Nomura│VONB and DPS in line, while embedded value and operating profit after-tax miss
Huatai Securities│Growth in 2024 will face a high base
UBS│VONB strong as expected, 2H VONB rate improved HoH
Related News- JPM Finds AIA (01299.HK) 2023 Results Slightly Beat, but Concerns About Not Disclosing 2M24 Sales
Source: AAStocks Financial News
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN
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Re: AIA Group 1299
by winston » Mon Mar 18, 2024 7:43 am
AIA Group (1299 HK)
2023: Delivering Strong VONB Growth
AIA’s 2023 VONB came in above our estimates with 30%/33% yoy growth on an AER/CER basis, driven by the stronger-than-expected performance of MCV segments throughout the year and margin improvement in China during 2H23.
We lift our 2024-25 VONB forecasts in the light of continued strong business momentum in Hong Kong and Thailand as well as a better margin outlook in China.
Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$101.00.
Source: UOBKH
https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... fb87c70f2e
2023: Delivering Strong VONB Growth
AIA’s 2023 VONB came in above our estimates with 30%/33% yoy growth on an AER/CER basis, driven by the stronger-than-expected performance of MCV segments throughout the year and margin improvement in China during 2H23.
We lift our 2024-25 VONB forecasts in the light of continued strong business momentum in Hong Kong and Thailand as well as a better margin outlook in China.
Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$101.00.
Source: UOBKH
https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... fb87c70f2e
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Re: AIA Group 1299
by winston » Fri Apr 12, 2024 9:49 am
vested
<Research>JPM Foresees AIA (01299.HK)'s 1Q24 NBV to Grow 19%, Rating Overweight
2024/04/11
The local insurer's 1Q24 operating data, due to be released in early May, may not be as informative as other quarterly data, since investors are shifting their focus from growth metrics to cash returns or cash positions (e.g. total shareholder return and underlying free surplus generation).
The company may consider providing the timeline of future shareholder returns and/or the sustainability of the total shareholder return outlook in this quarterly report.
Related News: JPM: AIA (01299.HK) Shr Price Expected to Recover, Tests Investors' Patience
JP Morgan forecast that AIA's NBV will grow by 19% to US$1.245 billion in 1Q24, confirming strong business growth.
The Overweight rating was maintained.
Source: AAstocks.com
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/analy ... stock-news
<Research>JPM Foresees AIA (01299.HK)'s 1Q24 NBV to Grow 19%, Rating Overweight
2024/04/11
The local insurer's 1Q24 operating data, due to be released in early May, may not be as informative as other quarterly data, since investors are shifting their focus from growth metrics to cash returns or cash positions (e.g. total shareholder return and underlying free surplus generation).
The company may consider providing the timeline of future shareholder returns and/or the sustainability of the total shareholder return outlook in this quarterly report.
Related News: JPM: AIA (01299.HK) Shr Price Expected to Recover, Tests Investors' Patience
JP Morgan forecast that AIA's NBV will grow by 19% to US$1.245 billion in 1Q24, confirming strong business growth.
The Overweight rating was maintained.
Source: AAstocks.com
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/analy ... stock-news
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