Agriculture Bank 1288

Agriculture Bank 1288

Postby winston » Thu Jul 15, 2010 9:15 am

Did not apply. May be a trading buy since they would be supporting it's price in the near term. Not too sure about it's fundamentals. Does not look like they are managing expenses well with their number of employees ..

==========================


Risk

Domestic economic structure adjustment becomes out of control, and the real estate prices are cut down beyond the expectation;

The prefential policies are cancelled;

The loans demand don`t increase as expected.


Subscribe for ABC because of the rapid growth driven by outstanding operation advantages

As one of large commercial banks, ABC owns the network advantage and widespread customer base. Plus with its leading position and potential to expand in the County Area Banking Business, and the low average cost, and the interest rate hike cycle, its profitability may be improved.

We forecast its operating income of FY10 and FY11 of RMB294.7 billion and RMB366.5 billion; net profit of RMB85.2 billion and RMB111 billion, increase by 31% and 30% y/y respectively; and EPS of RMB0.27 and RMB0.35. The BVPS can get at RMB1.71 and RMB1.96.

The ROAA and ROAE is respectively 0.82% and 18.96% in 2009 for ABC. We choose international banks with the two indicators similar to ABC, their P/E and P/B is respectively 14.45X and 2.1X. Furthermore, tracking historical valuation of other three Large Commercial Banks, their average historical P/E and P/B is respectively 14.45X and 2.26X.

Taking consideration of the sovereign debt crisis,slower GDP growth in the US and Europe, and the strict control policies in China, we conservatively give it 12X P/E to 2010EPS and 2X P/B to 2010BVPS, the 12-m TP of the Company will be HK$3.83 by simple weighted mean. We give it Subscription rating.
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Re: Agriculture Bank 1288

Postby winston » Fri Oct 22, 2010 4:18 pm

Not vested. From Phillips:-

Risk
1) Pressures of capital increase, as at the end of 2010H1, CAR and core CAR of ABC recorded 8.31% and 6.72% respectively, which were the lowest in the Big-4;
2) Intermediate business incomes reduce.


Valuation


In all, the profits of ABC increased largely and the quality of its assets was quite good.

We anticipate net profits of ABC would increase by 40% and 31% yoy in 2010 and 2011 respectively, and give its 12-month price of HK$5.00, around 21% higher than its latest closing price, corresponding to P/E 11.7x and P/B 2.2x for 2011 respectively, the valuation is quite reasonable and we recommend Buy rating.
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Re: Agriculture Bank 1288

Postby winston » Wed Oct 26, 2011 6:13 am

by iam802 :


Long article. Best to read at Bloomberg site.

Key point:
- Is GIC/Temasek still vested?
- How much are they holding?
- Investment timeframe?
- What if the bank do not meet capital requirements?

--
China Boom-to-Bust Concerns Revealed in Agricultural Bank Slide Since IPO

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-2 ... slide.html
Kerry Stokes made his first billion dollars operating television stations and selling dump trucks in his native Australia. Now, he’s betting a chunk of that fortune on a bank that operates in the backwaters of rural China.

Stokes became one of the cornerstone investors in Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. (1288), whose July 2010 initial public offering was the world’s largest, raising $22 billion. Investors such as Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing and the sovereign wealth funds of Kuwait, Qatar and Singapore joined Stokes, 70, in wagering that the bank will benefit from the rapid development of China’s agrarian inland areas, where growth is already outstripping that of the wealthy coastal cities, Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its December issue. They agreed to maintain a stake for at least one year.

The payoff is far from assured. Global investors increasingly have doubts about the future of Chinese banks, which in 2009 and 2010 went on a 17.6 trillion yuan ($2.8 trillion) lending spree, according to People’s Bank of China data.

Fitch Ratings estimated in a report issued in April that as much as 30 percent of all loans in China’s banking system -- or $2.46 trillion -- could become nonperforming. Hedge-fund manager Jim Chanos told Bloomberg News in September that he was shorting Agricultural Bank and other Chinese lenders.

Investors worried about nonperforming loans pushed the MSCI China Financials Index down about 28 percent from July 1, 2010, to Oct. 24 of this year.

Concern About Loans
Concerns about bad loans have affected Agricultural Bank, too, even though it’s benefiting from increasing investment in western and central China. Its shares had lost 17 percent of their value since the IPO as of Oct. 10 and then jumped when Central Huijin Investment Ltd., a unit of China’s sovereign wealth fund, began buying the stock. On Oct. 24, the shares were 4 percent below the IPO price.

“Industry is moving west and money is flowing into those areas -- no question,” says Singapore-based Mark Mobius, executive director of Templeton Asset Management’s emerging- markets group. “But in one fell swoop, bad loans can wipe out any profits you make.” Mobius, who manages $50 billion, holds just $9.6 million worth of Agricultural Bank stock, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
....
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Re: Agriculture Bank 1288

Postby winston » Wed Oct 26, 2011 5:32 pm

not vested

Agbank Q3 net up 40.25 percent, outperforms forecasts

BEIJING/HONG KONG (Reuters) - Agricultural Bank of China Ltd <1288.HK><601288.SS>, the country's third-largest bank by market value, said on Wednesday that third-quarter net profit rose 40.25 percent, beating expectations.

Agbank recorded a 34.09 billion yuan ($5.2 billion) net profit for the July-September period, up from 24.31 billion yuan a year earlier, the bank said in a statement to the Hong Kong stock exchange.

The result beat an average estimate of 33.88 billion yuan from 10 analysts surveyed by Reuters.

Source: Reuters US Online
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Re: Agriculture Bank 1288

Postby iam802 » Fri Oct 28, 2011 9:36 pm

Agribank’s Xiang Quits Amid Speculation on China Reshuffle

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-2 ... signs.html

Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. (601288) Chairman Xiang Junbo resigned amid speculation that the government plans to appoint new financial regulators.

Xiang resigned “due to the need of state financial work,” the Beijing-based bank said in a statement to the Shanghai Stock Exchange today, without giving details. Xiang may be appointed chairman of the China Insurance Regulatory Commission, Reuters reported today, citing three people it didn’t identify.

Naming new personnel at the regulators would be part of the broader leadership changes expected in China over the next 1 1/2 years as the ruling Communist Party selects officials to replace President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao. Older leaders will step down from positions in local governments, the military and cabinet ministries.

“This isn’t the first time for this kind of management reshuffle in China’s bureaucracy,” Ronald Wan, a managing director at China Merchants Securities (Hong Kong) Co., said by phone today.

“From past experience, we know that these finance company heads can actually pick up their new jobs quite fast.”

Liu Mingkang, chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, may be replaced by China Securities Regulatory Commission Chairman Shang Fulin, Reuters said. Guo Shuqing, chairman of China Construction Bank Corp. (939), may replace Shang as the head of the securities regulator, Reuters reported. Jiang Jianqing, chairman of Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., is also a contender to head the banking regulator, Reuters said.

ICBC and Construction Bank are the world’s two largest banks by market value.

Bad Debts

Shares of China’s five biggest banks have dropped an average 16 percent in Hong Kong trading this year on investor concern that bad debts may mount as economic growth slows and triggers defaults by manufacturers, local governments and property developers.

China’s Communist Party held an annual meeting in Beijing earlier this month with top officials seeking to shape the core leadership that will run what may become the world’s biggest economy in the next decade. They aim to mold membership of the nine-person Politburo

Standing Committee that will rule collectively under the leadership of Vice President Xi Jinping.
China’s economy, which has overtaken Japan to become the world’s second largest, may surpass the U.S. in size by 2020, according to estimates from Standard Chartered Plc and
PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. Gross domestic product grew 9.1 percent in the third quarter, the slowest pace since 2009.

Auditor, central banker

Xiang was a state auditor and deputy central bank governor before joining Agricultural Bank, the nation’s biggest by number of branches, in 2007 to lead the lender’s restructuring. An initial public offering three years later raised $22.1 billion in the world’s largest first-time sale.

Wu Dingfu, the current head of the insurance regulator, has reached the compulsory retirement age of 65, Reuters said.

Press officials at the three banks and the banking and securities regulators declined to comment on the Reuters report. Three calls to the insurance regulator’s press office went unanswered.

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Re: Agriculture Bank 1288

Postby winston » Sat Mar 17, 2012 8:12 pm

So easy to embezzle US$50m ?

Singapore banker detained in China

A Singaporean banker working in Shanghai as a relationship manager for Standard Chartered Bank's private banking business has been detained in China.

Ms Eden Wu Yidian, 31, has been held in a Wuxi jail near Shanghai since March 6 for allegedly harbouring a client who is on the run after embezzling US$50 million (S$63.4 million), according to news reports quoting her fiance.

Ms Wu was due to return to Singapore to get married on March 24, said The New Paper.

Although she has not been charged with any crime, Chinese police are investigating a client of hers who allegedly fled the country after embezzling money from the state-owned Agricultural Bank of China.

http://news.asiaone.com/News/Latest%2BN ... 34020.html
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Re: Agriculture Bank 1288

Postby winston » Mon Mar 26, 2012 3:54 pm

not vested

DJ MARKET TALK: AgBank Down 2.6%; Potential Kitchen Sinking -HSBC

1521 [Dow Jones] Agricultural Bank of China (1288.HK) is 2.6% lower HK$3.32 on top of its 3.1% post-results fall Friday; volume remains heavy and it's the 3rd most heavily-traded Hong Kong stock at HK$869.9 million.

What analysts basically all agree is that the much higher-than-expected provisioning was the main culprit for the earnings miss, what they disagree though is that if this represents a 'kitchen sinking' or accounting treatment to get negative items, such as provisioning, out in the current year to pave the way for an earnings rebound in the next year.

HSBC belongs to the 'kitchen-sinking' camp, as it notes that despite the aggressive provisioning, "no deterioration in asset quality was seen." In addition, all the new provisions made in 2H12 were on performing loans instead of specific NPLs.

"Management stressed this is a counter-cyclical move and expected 2012 credit costs not to go up versus 2011's 117 bp."

HSBC cuts AgBank's target price to HK$3.80 from HK$4.10 and keeps the stock at Neutral.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire
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Re: Agriculture Bank 1288

Postby winston » Fri Aug 03, 2012 4:43 pm

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At least seven employees of state-owned Agricultural Bank of China have been put on trial ,for allegedly embezzling more than 30 million yuan ($4.71 million) from deposits in Jiangsu province, quoted mainland media report.


Source: The Standard HK
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Re: Agriculture Bank 1288

Postby winston » Wed Mar 25, 2015 6:37 am

not vested

Spike in bad loans hits AgBank

Agricultural Bank of China (1288) yesterday reported a 4 percent dip in fourth- quarter profit and a spike in bad loans as manufacturers and retailers struggled to repay debt while economic growth slowed.

China's third-largest listed lender the first of the "big four" banks to report earnings this week also said transition toward market-determined interest rates will raise competition.

"This year, industry net interest margin will be on a downward trend, first- quarter profit is also likely to fall," chief financial officer Zhang Keqiu said in Hong Kong yesterday, referring to a measure of bank income.

AgBank also said it needs to replenish capital as it is now considered a global systemically important bank. It may derive the capital from internal sources or it could launch a preferred stock or a subordinated debt issue if necessary.

To encourage lending as the economy slows, the central bank last month cut the amount of money banks must hold in reserve, and singled out AgBank for an extra cut to support agricultural enterprises which usually struggle to attract investment.

But at the same time, banks are having to contend with an increasing number of defaults brought about by borrowers' inability to repay debt as credit conditions tighten and exports fall.

AgBank reported its highest non-performing loan ratio in three years, at 1.54 percent at end-December from 1.22 percent a year previously.

Net profit fell to 27 billion yuan (HK$33.75 billion) versus an average analyst estimate of 29 billion yuan, according to Thomson Reuters data. Bad loans to manufacturers rose to 3.69 percent from 2.86 percent a year earlier, and those to wholesalers and retailers leaped to 5.93 percent from 2.36 percent.

Sectors that improved included transportation, logistics and postal services with bad loans falling to 0.36 percent from 0.59 percent, AgBank said.

Zhang Yun, the bank's president, also said the lender received regulatory approval to open offices in Taiwan and Brazil, mirroring similar moves by peers in search of opportunities abroad as the economy slows.

Source: REUTERS
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China - Economic Data & News 13 (Nov 15 - Apr 16)

Postby behappyalways » Sun Jan 24, 2016 5:58 pm

Insider Job: ABC Employees Accused of Stealing 3.8 Bln Yuan Worth of Bills
http://english.caixin.com/2016-01-22/100902893.html
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