A50 China Tracker 2823

A50 China Tracker 2823

Postby winston » Thu Sep 03, 2009 11:15 am

Initiated some position yesterday.

I think the 20%+ correction is adequate for the time being. If the US collapse then all bets are off.

They are continuing to approve new mutual funds and those money will temporary support the market.

A month more to Oct 1 so they are trying their best to ensure that everything is stable. No need for a huge rise. Just no steep corrections of 10% a day for a few days :?

Wonder what else do they have up their sleeves ?

As always, follow me at your own risk. This is not a Buy / Sell Recommendation.
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Re: A50 China Tracker 2823

Postby eauyong » Thu Sep 03, 2009 11:54 am

W,

Good timing.
You may be aware of this already. If they have distribution which I think most likely for this year, the previous ex-dates is usually around 8 Dec. As to propping up the market for Oct 1, there was mention that the elimination of stamp duty on equity transactions may help. :)
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Re: A50 China Tracker 2823

Postby winston » Thu Sep 03, 2009 1:34 pm

Hi eauyong,

Yes, I heard of the stamp duty but I dont think it will have much impact. A bigger impact would be if they allow people to day trade or to buy on margin.

However, for the short term, I think the catalyst would still be the approval of new mutual funds. Those money from the new mutual funds, would flow into the market very quickly.

There's also a rumor that IPO, Rights & Placements may be suspended but I have not seen any official announcement on this yet.

Take care,
Winston
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Re: A50 China Tracker 2823

Postby eauyong » Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:40 pm

No need other measures, just a top regulator's assurance will do the job. :lol:

China stocks surge 4.8pc
(1 hr 21 mins ago)
Mainland stocks closed up across the board, with metals strong, after a top regulator assured investors that the country's market was healthy.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index closed up 4.8 percent at 2,845.02 points, building strongly on moderate technical gains in the past two sessions.

''It's basically a technical rebound in a weak market,'' said Zheng Weigang, head of investment in Shanghai Securities. ''See-saw battles between shorts and longs will continue to push the index as high as 3,000 and as low as 2,600 in the near term.''

Turnover for Shanghai A shares jumped to 138 billion yuan (HK$156.59 billion) from Wednesday's thin 88 billion yuan, which was the lowest level in nearly six months.

China Securities Regulatory Commission vice chairman Liu Xinhua said late on Wednesday that the regulator would do its best to promote the steady development of the country's equity market.

State newspapers gave prominent coverage to Liu's comments in an apparent effort to help talk up the market.

REUTERS
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Re: A50 China Tracker 2823

Postby winston » Mon Sep 14, 2009 1:24 pm

China Stock Index May Surpass 2009 High, Fortis Says (Update1) By Liza Lin

Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- China’s benchmark stock index may surpass this year’s highs as private consumption and investment boost demand for health-care services and real estate, Fortis Haitong Investment Management Co. said.

The Shanghai Composite Index, which doubled from November to 3,471.44 on Aug. 4, may rise to as much as 3,600 by the end of the year, said Liu Hong, Shanghai-based fund manager at Fortis Haitong, which oversees $6.4 billion in assets. The gauge rose 2.2 percent to 2,989.79 on Sept. 11, a three-week high.

“Our strategy over the past month has been to switch into domestic related sectors,” Liu said in a phone interview today. “Considering the resilience of earnings and potential for improvement, we think the valuation is supportive.”

China’s industrial production rose at a faster pace than forecast in August and new lending unexpectedly climbed, indicating growth in the world’s third-biggest economy is likely to accelerate. Output at the nation’s factories gained 12.3 percent from a year earlier, the most since August 2008, the statistics bureau said last week in Beijing.

The latest target is higher than Fortis Haitong’s forecast on March 2 for the Shanghai Composite to rise to 2,500 by the end of 2009. The measure exceeded that estimate a month later.

Liu said he likes real estate companies with land holdings and “visible earnings” for the next year, declining to name individual stocks.

“China clearly has taken a V-shaped recovery but the footing is still not very solid,” Fortis Haitong’s Liu said. “The government will continue with accommodating monetary policy, but keep a close eye on inflation.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... iSL0vQ4Fvw
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Re: A50 China Tracker 2823

Postby winston » Sun Sep 20, 2009 11:08 am

Sold this one last week. If it dips a lot, I may buy it again. Still undecided yet ..

Range Low: 12.20, 13.84
Range High: 14.4; 16.38

8 more Trading Days to go before the very long public holidays: Oct 1 to Oct 11.

Some people may not want to have a big holding before the long holidays..

And would there be a correction after the October holidays, as there's no more great incentive for the authorities to keep it at a "high" level ?
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Re: A50 China Tracker 2823

Postby lithium » Sun Sep 20, 2009 3:01 pm

If shanghai index drop back to 2500 next 2 weeks, I will buy
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Re: A50 China Tracker 2823

Postby winston » Sun Sep 20, 2009 4:53 pm

Hi Lithium,

Not sure whether it would drop to 2500. That's another 15%, in addition to the 3% on Friday.

The range high was 3060. The range low was 2668. The 50% midpoint is around 2864.

I would probably start to watch things intensely around 2750, which is around the 25th percentile of the trading range.

Take care,
Winston
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Re: A50 China Tracker 2823

Postby winston » Thu Sep 24, 2009 9:01 am

TOL:-

This one is starting to correct but there's only 5 days to go before the Oct 1 holidays.

A lot of people in the SSE dont want to have a big position over the holidays, just in case there's a catastrophe some where and they cant get out over the very long holidays.

However, I dont think there would be a steep drop due to the 60th Anniversary and Window Dressing before Oct 1.

I may pick up some A50 again if it's at a good price. If there's a catastrophic event somewhere, I still can get out as HK is open while the SSE is close.

The question is then is whether the SSE will rise after the October holidays. Window Dressing would be over so the Fund Managers dont have a huge incentive to buy. The 60th Anniversary would also be over, so the authorities would have less of an incentive to "support" the market. However, I dont think they want to see a very steep drop either. They have already learnt their lessons last year during the Olympics ..
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Re: A50 China Tracker 2823

Postby -dol- » Thu Sep 24, 2009 6:47 pm

I thought no one, including the govt, can control the market level. With lots of luck, may be temporarily but unlikely to be sustainable?

But then, if the laws of reason can ever be repealed - it probably has to be the Chinese.
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