Angang Steel 347

Re: Angang Steel 347

Postby winston » Fri Jul 24, 2009 12:10 pm

Do you know what you are buying? If you dont know the industry and rely on the "experts" Analysts, you will be eaten alive by the sharks ...

DJ MARKET TALK: Angang +0.7%; 1H May Surprise Pleasantly - UOB

1140 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Angang Steel (0347.HK) +0.7% at HK$15.00 after yesterday's underperformance pressured by plan of H-shares placement. UOB KayHian says 217.2 million H-shares will dilute FY09 earnings by 3%, but advises Buying shares on weakness as 1H09 results "may surprise pleasantly."

Notes Angang in April guided for 1H net loss of as much as CNY3 billion, vs house estimating 1H loss of CNY2 billion, but given continuing strength in flat steel prices, Angang may surprise with loss in low- to mid-end of 0-CNY3 billion range; target price unchanged at HK$17.80.
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Re: Angang Steel 347

Postby kennynah » Fri Jul 24, 2009 12:17 pm

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Re: Angang Steel 347

Postby winston » Thu Aug 20, 2009 7:41 am

After it has gone up a lot, the expert Analysts are now asking you to buy ...

Angang aims for profit after tackling `burdens' Kathy Wang, The Standard HK

Angang Steel (0347) said it is optimistic of making a profit in the second half now that two major burdens - falling steel prices and soaring iron ore prices - which led to its first-half loss, are easing.

( So steel prices are going to continue going up and iron ore are going to continue falling ? LOL )

The Liaoning-based steelmaker raised prices in July and August.

Prices will also go up in September but the rate of increase will not be as high as in the previous two months because soaring domestic steel prices were feeding an overcapacity problem, chief executive Zhang Xiaogang told a press conference in Hong Kong yesterday.

Meantime, average iron ore costs from the parent company will drop to 578 yuan (HK$655.62) per tonne in the second half from 887 yuan per tonne in the first six months, board director Fu Jihui said.

Steel production capacity in the international market recovered slower than China's domestic market, Zhang said.

Zhang added that the merger and consolidation of steel mills and optimized allocation of resources might be a way to tackle industrial overcapacity in China.

( Sure. Two recent consolidation was aborted becuz of riots by the steel workers )

JPMorgan analyst Frank Li expects Angang to record a strong profit in the second half due to the rise in benchmark product prices and lower pre-agreed iron ore prices from the parent company.

The company on Monday reported a net loss of 1.55 billion yuan compared with a 5.99 billion yuan net profit for the first half of 2008.

UBS analyst Hubert Tang said Angang managed to cut its "cost of goods sold" substantially in the second quarter.
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Re: Angang Steel 347

Postby winston » Fri Aug 28, 2009 3:52 pm

Not vested. From Phillips:-

Risk

The Europe and America will still face many challenges, and the economy cant be excluded from the possibility of bottoming again;
The iron ore contract price from related party transaction cant be down-adjusted as our expectation.


Valuation

On the background of ramping steel price and decreased cost, we expect its profit will improve gradually, with revenues of RMB65 and 73.7 billion in 2009 and 2010. And the net profit will be respectively RMB 2.6 billion and 4 billion, equivalent to the EPS of RMB 0.36 and 0.55. Then the BVPS will stand RMB 7.5 and 7.78.

For the steel industry, we are inclined to valuate according to the Price/Book value ratio. Tracking the ratio of global metal indexes, besides that of Japan is as low as 1.49X on average, others like that for the world, Europe, America, the average P/B is between 2X-2.88X. We are optimistic about the performance of steel companies.

Giving the P/B at 2X 2009 BVPS conservatively, the company's 12-month target price would be HK$17, and we give Hold rating. What's more, we also don`t exclude the possibility of higher valuation. In 2H07, the P/B kept above 3X, even 6X sometimes.
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Re: Angang Steel 347

Postby winston » Tue Sep 15, 2009 11:15 am

Angang Steel Cuts Prices for October, Shanghai Securities Says

Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Angang Steel Co. will cut the prices of its steel products by between 200 yuan ($29) and 480 yuan a metric ton for October, Shanghai Securities News said, citing the company.

The steelmaker cut hot-rolled products by 450 yuan to 3,130 yuan a ton, and that of cold-rolled products by 480 yuan a ton to 4,340 yuan, the report said. It also reduced prices for galvanized steel, silicon steel and other products, it said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... lWKfchn2EU
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Re: Angang Steel 347

Postby winston » Tue Oct 27, 2009 9:05 pm

DJ Angang Steel 3Q Net Profit Falls 16.7% To CNY1.89 Bln

HONG KONG (Dow Jones)--Chinese steel maker Angang Steel Co. (0347.HK) said Tuesday its third-quarter net profit fell 16.7% from a year earlier because of a drop in demand and lower sales prices.

The Hong Kong and Shenzhen-listed company said its net profit for the three months ended Sept. 30 was CNY1.89 billion, down from CNY2.27 billion a year earlier, according to Chinese accounting standards.

Revenue fell 16.0% to CNY19.18 billion from CNY22.85 billion.

The company's January-September net profit dropped 96.0% to CNY330 billion, while revenue declined 21.9% to CNY49.22 billion from a year ago.

Source: Jackie Cheung, Dow Jones Newswires
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Re: Angang Steel 347

Postby winston » Wed Oct 28, 2009 12:05 pm

Not vested.

DJ MARKET TALK: Angang Steel Off 3.5%;Conservative Guidance Hurts

1146 [Dow Jones] Angang Steel (0347.HK) off 3.5% at HK$15.60 despite strong 3Q turnaround to net profit of CNY1.89 billion vs 1H net loss of CNY1.57 billion, as such turnaround well flagged.

Citigroup says company guiding FY09 earnings range from breakeven to CNY1.495 billion vs house's CNY1.695 billion forecast; if taking midpoint of guidance, would imply 4Q net profit of CNY418 million, down 78% on-quarter, which "would be disappointing."

Adds, if taking high end of guidance, 4Q net income would be CNY1.165 billion, down 38% on-quarter; "this strikes us as conservative," Citigroup says.

Keeps Buy call despite target price of HK$15.50 tad lower than current price. Separately, UOB KayHian slashed FY09 earnings forecast by about 50% to CNY2 billion, FY10's cut by 27% to CNY5.5 billion taking into account company's guidance; keeps at Buy, target HK$19.50.

Source: Dow Jones Newswire
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Re: Angang Steel 347

Postby winston » Thu Jan 21, 2010 11:31 am

:?: :?: :?: :?:

DJ MARKET TALK: BNP Raises Angang Steel To Buy, Ups Target 61.8%

1050 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: BNP Paribas upgrades Angang Steel (0347.HK) to Buy from Reduce on strong earnings outlook in 1H10. Raises target price to HK$21.20 from HK$13.10 after increasing FY10-11 earnings forecasts by 98.3%, 96.3% on higher price and utilization assumptions.

"With a positive outlook for steel prices in 1H10, we expect higher selling prices for major flat producers." Expects Angang to raise February prices by about 5% on-month in late January; estimates 1% steel price rise to boost FY10 earnings by 8.5%.

Adds, with 70% captive and 30% contract procurement, expects Angang's 1H10 iron-ore cost to fall 30% on-year, or 10%-20% lower vs major peers, reducing per-ton production costs. Notes stock trades at 1.7X 2010E P/BV, 7.5X 2010 EV/EBITDA, 10% higher vs regional peers' average; believes reflects higher-than-peer ROE, margins. Shares down 3.7% at HK$15.14;

Source: Dow Jones Newswire
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Re: Angang Steel 347

Postby winston » Thu Feb 11, 2010 1:00 pm

Not vested. From Phillips:-

Risks

Europe and America still are faced with risks with double dip.
Steel export is bad than expected.
Iron ore purchase price is beyond expected.


Valuation

Based on production expanding and margin improvement, we expect Angang's performance in the next two years will improve stably to finish RMB68.2billion and RMB86.3billion in 2009 and 2010 respectively, net profit of RMB2.7billion and RMB6.5billion, suggesting EPS of RMB0.37 and RMB0.90, BVPS of RMB7.33 and RMB7.78.

The stock price of Angang Steel had revolved around HK$17 since 2H09, which was in line with our last target price expectation. However, the steel stock prices slumped deep recently because of tightened policies. Taking Angang as the example, the share price has fallen 30% around.

In our view, Price slump brings buy opportunity. We are inclined to valuate according to the Price/Book value ratio. Tracking the ratio of global, European, American and Japanese metal indexes, We give it the P/B at 2X 2010F BVPS conservatively, and the company's 12-month target price would be HK$17.68. We give Buy rating.
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Re: Angang Steel 347

Postby winston » Sat May 01, 2010 9:40 am

Not vested.

Earnings Risk/Valuation

The recent share price corrections may not fully reflect concern over cost pressure and the ripple effect from macro tightening on the property sector.

Also, Angang should not have a huge valuation premium to its peers as its chances of M&As or asset injections seem remote. Our fair price of HK10.30 is derived from the DCF model and based on 13x PE.

Since our fair price implies a 14% downside, we reinitiate Angang with a SELL rating.

Upside risks include announcement of M&A pipeline and higher-than expected profitability in all types of products due to Angang’s ability to pass on cost increases effectively.


Source: UOBKH
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