Alibaba (BABA)/ 9988 HK; Jack Ma 03 (May 21 - Jun 25)

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Alibaba launches AI model EMO!
Just input photos and audio to generate lip-syncing dynamic videos.
Experts: It can be combined with broadcasting and spoken performances.

阿里巴巴推AI模型EMO!只要輸入照片及音訊...生成對嘴動態影片 專家:可結合播報.口語表演｜非凡財經新聞｜20240301

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mdAP-roilzE

[winston]

vested

<Research>Macquarie Chops BABA-SW (09988.HK) TP to $78.2; Gaining E-commerce Mkt Shr, but at Cost

Macquarie issued a research report expecting BABA-SW (09988.HK) 's Taobao Tmall Group to see GMV growth narrows with retail sales data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

However, its monetization and profitability may lag behind.

The expansion of the Company's international business, which is a major investment focus for the Company, could widen losses in the coming quarters.

Related News: UBS Cuts Alibaba (BABA.US) TP a Bit to US$105; Last Quarter's CMR Recovery Under Spotlight

Macquarie chopped its target price on BABA-SW by 7% to $78.2, with rating kept at Neutral, due to the Company's aggressive investment strategy (expansion of international business may increase related losses).

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

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<Research>UBS Cuts Alibaba (BABA.US) TP a Bit to US$105; Last Quarter's CMR Recovery Under Spotlight

UBS wrote in a report that it expected BABA-SW (09988.HK) to report mixed results for 4QFY24, with revenue for the quarter forecasted to grow 5% YoY to RMB219 billion.

Adjusted EBITA is meanwhile predicted to fall 6% YoY to RMB23.7 billion, compared to market consensus of RMB27.3 billion, mainly due to higher investment in Alibaba International Digital Commerce (AIDC) and loss related to Cainiao.

By segment, UBS forecasted Taobao Tmall Group's customer management revenue (CMR) to grow by 4% YoY in the quarter, higher than the consensus estimate of 0.8%, and believed its competitive pricing strategy is starting to bear fruit, which should help it to narrow its market share loss.

Its gross merchandise value (GMV) is now forecasted to grow 8% YoY, with EBITA estimated to fall 2% YoY.

Related News: HSBC Global Research Cuts BABA-SW (09988.HK) TP to $111; Investments Boost Growth

For AIDC, the broker expected revenue to hike 40% YoY in the quarter, compared to the consensus prediction of a 38% growth.

Still, EBITA loss is forecasted to widen to RMB4.2 billion, compared to the RMB3.1 billion loss in 3Q, mainly due to the impact of BABA's continued expansion of AliExpress Choice penetration and overseas business.

Driven by AIDC, UBS expected Cainiao's revenue to elevate 25% YoY in the quarter, beating market expectations of a 21% rise.

However, taking into account the scale of investment and the one-off employee retention bonus from the collapse of Cainiao's IPO, the subsidiary's EBITA is expected to turn from a profit to a loss of about RMB800 million, compared to a profit of RMB961 million in 3Q.

In addition, UBS expected BABA's local services revenue to grow 12% YoY in the quarter, while cloud business revenue is predicted to rise 3%.

The broker lowered its adjusted EBITA forecast on BABA by 8-9% for FY25-FY26, based on higher investments in AIDC and Cainiao, and trimmed its adjusted EPS forecast by 2-4%, given faster-than-expected share buybacks.

Related News: TF Securities: BABA-SW (09988.HK) To Promote Synergies by Cainiao Shr Buyback, Raises Shr Buyback Amt

UBS maintained a Buy rating on BABA's US Shares (BABA.US) but trimmed its target price from US$106 to US$105, while also lowering its target price on BABA H-shares from HK$104 to HK$103.

The broker cited CMR recovery in the last quarter as a bright spot.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

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<Research>CMSI: BABA-SW (09988.HK) Invests for Long-term Profit, Awaiting Recovery

CMSI released a research report estimating that BABA-SW (09988.HK) 's 4FQ24 revenue will grow by 6.2% YoY to RMB221 billion, as compared to the prior estimation of a YoY growth of 8.1%.

The decrease of the revenue forecast was mainly due to the slower-than-expected growth in Taobao Tmall Group's revenue, which was impacted by factors including macro headwinds.

Related News: HSBC Global Research Cuts BABA-SW (09988.HK) TP to $111; Investments Boost Growth

CMSI maintained BABA-SW's FY2025 revenue YoY growth forecast at 10.3%, and expected adjusted EBITA profit to incline by 3% YoY, as compared with its previous estimation of 5%.

CMSI lowered its target prices on Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA.US) / BABA-SW's H-shares to US$118/ $116 from US$120/ $117, mainly due to lower earnings forecasts, exchange rate and investment value changes.

The Company reduced its outstanding shares by 3.3% through share buybacks in 2023, and is committed to continuous share buybacks.

Related News: UBS Cuts Alibaba (BABA.US) TP a Bit to US$105; Last Quarter's CMR Recovery Under Spotlight

BABA-SW repurchased US$4.8 billion in 4FQ24, and said at its December quarter results that the Company plans to reduce its outstanding shares by 3% per year, with a repurchase amount of approx. US$12 billion per year.

CMSI kept rating at Overweight, as the Company is awaiting for recovery.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

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<Research>Jefferies: BABA-SW (09988.HK)'s Clear Strategies Focus on User Experience; Rating Reiterated Buy

BABA-SW (09988.HK) +3.500 (+4.965%) 's clear strategies focus on user experience and its growth was underpinned by reinvestment, Jefferies said in its report, reiterating its Buy rating with a TP of $114.

The broker expected the gap between the company's GMV growth vs industry to narrow for March quarter to narrow, and GMV growth to be faster than CMR.

For overseas market, investments in Alibaba International Digital Commerce (AIDC) and Cainiao will help the group garner greater market share, and the company's return on equity reflects investors' confidence in its long-term prospects.

Jefferies estimated that BABA-SW's total revenue for the quarter ended March will grow by 6% YoY to RMB221 billion, with Taobao Tmall Group's revenue hiking by 1.4%, CMR's revenue by 2%, AIDC's revenue by 35%, and Cainiao's revenue by 22%.

Overall EBITA was estimated to have declined by 6% YoY, with EBITA margin sinking 1.4 ppts to 10.7%.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

vested

Alibaba Group (9988 HK)
4QFY24 Preview: Solid CMR And AIDC Growth; Lacklustre Profitability

Alibaba saw solid consumption momentum in Jan-Feb 24 on its platform and slight moderation in March with its continuous focus on user needs.

We expect revenue to grow 6% yoy for 4QFY24, fuelled by better CMR growth.

For FY25, Alibaba will continue to focus on user experience and investment in AIDC to foster revenue growth amid a highly competitive environment.

Maintain BUY with a lower target price of HK$92.00 (US$92.00).

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... 5694e1bfe5

[winston]

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Better-than-expected CMR recovery in 4QFY3/24; continuing investing in overseas businesses

Expect CMR to grow 3% y-o-y in 4QFY3/24, higher than market expectations of flattish growth, thanks to robust GMV growth

Adjusted EBITA to drop by mid-single-digit percentage, mainly due to a one-off retention bonus for Cainiao staff

FY3/24F-3/26F core earnings slashed by 1%/8%/11%, mainly on higher international investment assumptions

Maintain BUY; we expect revenue growth momentum to pick up in FY3/25; TPs of HK$96/US$97

Source: DBS

https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/comp ... ecid=18997

[winston]

vested

Time to Sell or Buy the Dip? Assessing Alibaba’s Price Action Amid Headwinds

China is at least two years behind American companies like Open AI, which have emerged as frontrunners in AI.

Overall, despite BABA’s commitment and focus to fuel growth in e-commerce and cloud services, as highlighted by CEO Wu, the company’s growth might be hindered by ongoing macroeconomic headwinds such as weak consumer demand in China, geopolitical tensions, and technological constraints.

Source: INO.com

https://www.ino.com/blog/2024/04/time-t ... =blogclick