AIA Group 1299 02 (Jun 20 - Dec 27)

[winston]

vested

AIA(1299)

Analysis：

While sales activity in the second quarter for AIA China was substantially affected by stringent containment measures in Shanghai, Suzhou and Beijing, AIA (1299) achieved positive VONB (Value of new business) growth across other geographies such as Hong Kong, Malaysia, India, Indonesia and the Phillipines, mainly attributable to its strategic partnerships with leading banks in those regions.

The Mainland Chinese life insurance market remains significantly underpenetrated and offers tremendous growth potential for AIA in the long run.

It continues to make strong progress in geographical expansion and its new branch in Wuhan, Hubei province, commenced sales in the first half, making a strong contribution to the excellent VONB growth from its new geographies.

In May, it received regulatory approval to prepare a new branch in Henan, the third most populous province in Mainland China.(I do not hold the above stock)

Strategy：
Buy-in Price: $66.00, Target Price: $71:00, Cut Loss Price: $63:00

Source: Phillips

[winston]

vested

HK difficulties to persist

We see HK going from a tailwind to headwind for both VONB (due to margins and agent difficulties) and net profits (due to non-operating items) in 2H22F.

HK VONB headwinds are driven by increased competition, shorter duration products, a difficult time for agents, a high base and Macau lockdowns.

Reiterate Add rating. Slight TP cut to HK$83 due to lower FY22-24F VONB.

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... B8E0F115A7

[winston]

vested

AIA 3Q VONB Grows 7% on CER Basis

AIA (01299.HK) -0.150 (-0.252%) announced that, for the third quarter ended 30 September 2022, the value of new business (VONB) elevated 7% YoY on a constant exchange rate basis to USD741 million.

On an actual exchange rate basis, the VONB lifted 1% over the period.

Dividend History
Announce Date Event Particular
2022/08/25 Interim D:HKD 0.4028
2022/03/11 Final D:HKD 1.0800
2021/08/17 Interim D:HKD 0.3800
2021/03/12 Final D:HKD 1.0030

Related News: C Suisse Estimates AIA's Fair Value at $63 under Extremely Stressed Scenario

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... t-news/HK6

[winston]

vested

Now you see me, now you don’t

AIA confirmed that its sizeable derivative loss booked in 1H22, which we expect to widen in 2H22F, will be reversed in FY23F under IFRS 17.

It is also a positive that all its major regional markets delivered VONB growth in 3Q22, with mainland China’s +6% yoy still much better than larger peers.

While 4Q22F VONB growth is challenging due to a very high 4Q21 HK base, we are encouraged by Macau’s continuing ‘excellent’ sales growth from MCV.

Reiterate Add rating. Unchanged TP of HK$83. Still our top sector pick.

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... 7094671BBA

[winston]

not vested

Remember the good old days?

We raise our FY23F–24F VONB by 5-21%, primarily driven by HK and China,as we factor in Covid-zero policy changes and border re-openings.

Margins and premium volumes are tailwinds that can drive FY24F–25F VONB growth, in our view, with FY24F’s 29% growth the fastest since FY11.

We assess 21–76% further valuation upside can exist under various scenarios (see Figs 15–16).

TP raised to HK$104. Remains our top sector pick. Reiterate Add rating. We
also see upside from an upward rebasing of investment return assumptions.

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... FB7378C93B

[winston]

not vested

AIA splurges 8.7b yuan in Shanghai real estate debut

by Aiden He

Splashed out 4.61 billion yuan to acquire a 90 percent stake in a project company from units of Shanghai Industrial (0363), a Hong Kong based company mostly owned by the Shanghai government.

The project firm owns a plot on the north bund in Hongkou district for office and commercial use, which occupies an area of approximately 23,037 square meters and has a total gross floor area of approximately 230,568 sq m.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section- ... tate-debut

[winston]

not vested

AIA GROUP LTD (1299 HK)

Recommendation : BUY
Fair Value : HKD 110.00

RE-OPENING BENEFICIARY.

Double-digit percentage total returns in 2022, underscoring our positive stance and calls to add positions on weakness in 2022.

3Q22 business highlights reflected continued recovery underway across all its reportable segments.

Positioned to benefit from an improving outlook for new business value growth and eventual recovery in the Mainland Chinese Visitor (MCV) business.

AIA is the largest independent listed pan-Asian insurance provider with presence in 18 markets and offering a diversified products range including life, accident, health insurance and retirement savings plans.

We view AIA as a longer-term beneficiary of the rise in Asia’s middle class and affluent which will have growing protection and wealth accumulation needs.

Prudent management, strong execution and well-trained agents drive sustainable new business growth and margin expansion from higher margin products.

Although impact from the pandemic remains a risk to monitor in the near-term, we see a sequentially improving outlook over the medium-term supported by further normalisation of its business as mass vaccination takes place regionally and its China expansion plan continues to progress.

AIA has announced a USD10b share buyback plan in 2022 which spans the next three years and adds to its progressive dividend policy.

Source: OCBC

[winston]

not vested

AIA(1299)

Analysis：

AIA(1299.HK) is the largest independently listed pan-Asian life insurance group, covering 18 markets.

For the third quarter ended September 30, the company's VONB amounted USD 741 million, increasing 7% YoY.

Annualized new premiums amounted USD 1.27 billion, increasing 8% YoY.

Due to the change of the mainland's epidemic prevention policies, China and Hong Kong are close to complete customs clearance, which is expected to benefit the company's new business growth in the mainland.

Coupled with the strong performance of Tata AIA Life in India in the multi-channel distribution platform, it is expected to continue to achieve excellent new business value growth.

Besides, the continued decline of the USD has a positive impact on the embedded value of the company's assets and insurance contracts it is holding.

Strategy：
Buy-in Price: $86.95, Target Price: $93.00, Cut Loss Price: $82.60

Source: Phillips

[winston]

not vested

Favourable trends in early FY23F

We sensed much optimism from management during the FY22 results briefing, especially with respect to Hong Kong and China.

Feb VONB rebounded strongly yoy (we see double-digit growth). We believe Mar is likely to see similar growth, given subway passenger trends.

Sharp VONB margin rise yoy in 2H22 in Thailand and Malaysia was a positive, as it suggests potential margin rebound as product mix normalises.

Reiterate Add rating; TP cut slightly to HK$109 due to lower ROEV assumptions. AIA remains one of our top picks of the insurance sector.

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... 71EBC8C338

[winston]

not vested

AIA Group (1299 HK)

Strong growth in MCV segment expected

2H22 VONB (value of new business) recovered strongly by 6% y-o-y with full-year figure down by 5% y-o-y and in line

AIA China 2H22 VONB was +3% y-o-y with strong double-digit growth momentum till November before Omicron surge in December

Strong MCV (mainland Chinese visitor) segment recovery in FY23F expected, with 6.8k dedicated agents in place and growth in average ticket size seen

TP HK$118

Source: DBS

https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/comp ... ecid=13309