Re: AIA Group 1299
Posted: Wed Nov 29, 2023 12:16 pm
vested
Benefitting from 4Q underestimation bias
There is a clear bias towards AIA outperforming in 4Q vs. other quarters since its 2010 IPO (Fig 1-2). We expect this to repeat in 4Q23F.
We see AIA benefitting from consensus upgrades to 4Q23F, FY24F & FY25F VONB growth, which we see as too low at 20%, 17% and 16% yoy (Fig 4).
3Q23 results had addressed the main four areas of concern to investors in our view, three of which related to its mainland China business.
Reiterate Add rating, TP unchanged at HK$91. Remains our sector top pick.
Source: CIMB
https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... 18F7BE9CC3
Benefitting from 4Q underestimation bias
There is a clear bias towards AIA outperforming in 4Q vs. other quarters since its 2010 IPO (Fig 1-2). We expect this to repeat in 4Q23F.
We see AIA benefitting from consensus upgrades to 4Q23F, FY24F & FY25F VONB growth, which we see as too low at 20%, 17% and 16% yoy (Fig 4).
3Q23 results had addressed the main four areas of concern to investors in our view, three of which related to its mainland China business.
Reiterate Add rating, TP unchanged at HK$91. Remains our sector top pick.
Source: CIMB
https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... 18F7BE9CC3