AIA Group 1299 02 (Jun 20 - Dec 27)

[winston]

not vested

Growth rotating: SEA making a comeback

While we see China as mainly driving 1Q21F VONB growth, we see growth drivers switching to South East Asia (SEA) in 2Q21F via higher margins.

We see a marked shift towards higher-margin protection & rider products, especially in Thailand & Malaysia, with margins driving VONB growth.

In Thailand, new data disclosures show 1Q21 new premium growth for protection business accelerating to 16% yoy from FY20’s 1% yoy.

Reiterate Add. While our lower TP of HK$120 assumes a longer pandemic, we see upside surprise to margins from favourable product mix shifts.

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... 78AD0AC56E

[winston]

not vested

FIRST QUARTER 2021 NEW BUSINESS HIGHLIGHTS

KEY FINANCIAL SUMMARY

Growth rates are shown on a constant exchange rate basis.
Value of new business (VONB) of US$1,052 million, up 19 per cent
Annualised new premiums (ANP) grew 10 per cent to US$1,703 million
VONB margin up 4.5 pps to 61.6 per cent
Total weighted premium income (TWPI) up 6 per cent to US$9,663 million

AIA has exceeded pre-pandemic levels of new business for each of our segments other than Hong Kong, where travel restrictions continue to affect sales to Mainland Chinese visitors.

Outside Hong Kong, VONB for all segments in the first quarter of 2021 was higher than the first quarter of 2019.

https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listc ... 400001.pdf

[winston]

not vested

AIA GROUP LTD (1299 HK)

Recommendation : BUY
Fair Value : HKD 120.00

EXECUTING ON ITS CHINA ROADMAP.

Proposal to invest USD1.86bn to acquire a 24.99% stake in China Post Life extends its mass market reach. Transaction is pending regulatory approvals and will be funded by internal resources.

Recent addition of a Hubei branch license & latest China Post Life investment plan adds positively to its medium term China growth story.

Remains our preferred Asia insurance sector pick, where we continue to expect a gradual recovery from pandemic disruptions across Asia while firmer growth expectations in China should drive the group’s new business value growth over the medium term as it expands towards its target of 12 new regions by 2030E.

AIA is the largest independent listed pan-Asian insurance provider with presence in 18 markets and offering a diversified products range including life, accident, health insurance and retirement savings plans).

2020 value of new business (VONB) breakdown:
Mainland China 32% (vs 2019’s 26%)
Hong Kong 18% (vs 2019’s 37%)
Thailand 15% (vs 2019’s 11%)
Singapore 11% (vs 2019’s 8%)
Malaysia 7% (vs 2019’s 6%)
Others 17% (vs 2019’s 12%)

We view AIA as a beneficiary of the rise of Asia’s middle class (particularly China) with growing protection and wealth accumulation needs.

Prudent management, strong execution and well-trained agents drive sustainable new business growth and margin expansion from higher margin products.

Although impact from the pandemic may continue to weigh on group performance near term, we see a sequentially improving outlook ahead supported by further normalization of its business as mass vaccination materializes and progress in its China expansion plan which should drive the group’s VONB growth.

Source: OCBC

[winston]

not vested

Shaping up to a good 2H21F

Strong VONB beat in 2Q21 was driven by ASEAN and better-than-expected performance in China, where we estimate 2Q21 VONB fell only 3%.

While base effects and currency tailwinds get more difficult in 2H21F yoy, we remain optimistic both 3Q21F and 4Q21F can sustain >20% VONB growth.

We see 2H21F growth driven by Thailand, China and Hong Kong.

Reiterate Add, unchanged TP: HK$127. AIA remains our top sector pick.

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... E47468F567

[winston]

not vested

AIA Group Ltd (1299 HK) - Strong VONB growth ex-HK

AIA is the largest independent listed pan-Asian insurance provider with presence in 18 markets and offering a diversified products range including life, accident, health insurance and retirement savings plans).

2020 value of new business (VONB) breakdown:
Mainland China 32% (vs 2019’s 26%),
Hong Kong 18% (vs 2019’s 37%),
Thailand 15% (vs 2019’s 11%),
Singapore 11% (vs 2019’s 8%),
Malaysia 7% (vs 2019’s 6%),
Others 17% (vs 2019’s 12%).

We view AIA as a beneficiary of the rise of Asia’s middle class (particularly China) with growing protection and wealth accumulation needs.

Prudent management, strong execution and well-trained agents drive sustainable new business growth and margin expansion from higher margin products.

Although impact from the pandemic remains a risk to monitor near term, we see a sequentially improving outlook ahead supported by further normalization of its business as mass vaccination materializes and progress in its China expansion plan which should drive the group’s VONB growth. BUY.

Source: OCBC

[winston]

Brokers Forecast AIA 3Q VONB on AER to Grow Nearly 6%, Dented by Pandemic

Credit Suisse forecast that AIA (01299.HK) will announce the new business highlights for 3Q21 on 12 November (Friday).

The market estimated that the Mainland visitor arrivals have been restricted due to the COVID-19 flare-up, whereas the company's performance in the ASEAN markets were also upset.

According to forecasts by four brokers as complied by our reporters, based on actual exchange rates (AER), AIA's 3Q21 value of new business (VONB) will range between USD727.5 million and USD769.5 million, up 3-9% YoY compared to the VONB of USD706 million of last year. The median of the forecasts was USD747.5 million, up 5.9% YoY.

Related News: C Suisse Cuts AIA (01299.HK) TP to $116, Foresees 9M21 VNB at US$2.567B

————————————————————————————————————
Brokers│3Q21 VONB on AER│YoY Change
Daiwa|USD769.5 million|+9%
Credit Suisse |USD753 million|+6.7%
JPMorgan|USD742 million|+5.1%
BofA Securities|USD727.5 million|+3%

Based on 3Q20 VONB of USD706 million.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

not vested

Brokers Forecast AIA 3Q VONB on AER to Grow Over 6%, Dented by Pandemic (Update)

2021/11/03

Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse forecast that AIA (01299.HK) will announce the new business highlights for 3Q21 on 12 November (Friday).

The market estimated that the Mainland visitor arrivals have been restricted due to the COVID-19 flare-up, whereas the company's performance in the ASEAN markets were also upset.

According to forecasts by six brokers as complied by our reporters, based on actual exchange rates (AER), AIA's 3Q21 value of new business (VONB) will range between USD727.5 million and USD769.5 million, up 3-9% YoY compared to the VONB of USD706 million of last year. The median of the forecasts was USD751 million, up 6.4% YoY.

————————————————————————————————————
Brokers│3Q21 VONB on AER│YoY Change
Daiwa|USD769.5 million|+9%
Nomura|USD769.5 million|+9%
Credit Suisse|USD753 million|+6.7%
Goldman Sachs|USD749 million|+6%
JPMorgan|USD742 million|+5.1%
BofA Securities|USD727.5 million|+3%

Based on 3Q20 VONB of USD706 million.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

vested

Insurer AIA's third-quarter new business value rebounds from pandemic slump

AIA Group posted a 4 per cent jump in its quarterly value of new business (VONB).

Source: Business Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compan ... emic-slump

[winston]

vested

JPM: AIA (01299.HK) QoQ Largely In-line, with 3 Key Potential Catalysts Ahead

AIA (01299.HK) announced 3Q21 NBV of US$735 million (up 4% on AER basis), showing a continued growth momentum as compared with JPMorgan's forecast of US$742 million.

The broker restated AIA's Overweight rating and $110 target, seeing three key potential catalysts in the coming 12 months.

Firstly, the 2022-23 growth will be driven by a gradual China-Hong Kong border reboot.

Secondly, AIA's good geographical layout should help capture China's insurance sector revival next year.

Thirdly, AIA will likely become Asia's first insurer adopting Hong Kong Risk Based Capital Standards (HKRBC).

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

vested

Seeing the light in China

While 3Q21 VONB slightly missed, its China performance was much better than many investors had feared. We are more bullish about 4Q21F outlook.

We expect 4Q21F VONB growth to rebound 14% yoy (3Q21:’s 4% yoy), with China the key swing factor, and HK strength to continue, in our view.

Regions that were weak in 3Q21 were Singapore, Malaysia and Other markets, with Covid-19 being the key reason.

AIA remains our sector top pick; reiterate Add. We trim our TP to HK$119 on
marginally lower FY21F embedded value estimates.

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgs-cimb.com/api/download?f ... EB271C1B95