Alibaba (BABA)/ 9988 HK; Jack Ma 01 (May 08 - Apr 16)

[behappyalways]

jack-ma-s-paper-run
http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/article ... -paper-run

[winston]

not vested

Stocks to Sell: Alibaba (BABA)

Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) hit the NYSE in 2014 with the largest global IPO ever at the time, and was heralded as the best way to play an emerging consumer class in China.

However, the bloom quickly came off the rose and BABA stock fell below its initial offer price as investors learned of serious difficulties in the Chinese economy. BABA continued to fall on fears that a global slowdown would sap the growth that many had been promised from the e-commerce giant.

More recently, there have been allegations of counterfeiting and other shady tactics from the Chinese megacap. For instance, a recent report estimated the total value of counterfeit goods sold on Alibaba’s sites at $45 billion last quarter alone.

Not only does that call into question the staying power of the sales growth BABA has seen, that kind of fraud also means that it’s not very likely this company will be welcomed with open arms by Western investors, merchants or consumers.

And most troubling of all is that when Alibaba Group went public, it did so with a very convoluted corporate governance structure that basically renders common shareholders powerless. Thanks to the hype machine during the run-up to IPO, many folks may not have caught those details.

But the recent underperformance of the stock, with BABA down more than 20% YTD, coupled with counterfeiting fears, should remind investors just what kind of company they are looking at with Alibaba.

Source: Investor Place

[winston]

How Many of Alibaba’s ‘Singles Day’ Sales Were Fakes?

By Xinlu Duwu

Source: Epoch Times

http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/1904557 ... campaign=4

[winston]

Stocks to Sell: Alibaba (BABA)

Alibaba Group Holding (BABA) hit the NYSE in 2014 with the largest global IPO ever at the time, and was heralded as the best way to play an emerging consumer class in China.

However, the bloom quickly came off the rose and BABA stock fell below its initial offer price as investors learned of serious difficulties in the Chinese economy.

BABA continued to fall on fears that a global slowdown would sap the growth that many had been promised from the e-commerce giant.

More recently, there have been allegations of counterfeiting and other shady tactics from the Chinese megacap. For instance, a recent report estimated the total value of counterfeit goods sold on Alibaba’s sites at $45 billion last quarter alone.

Not only does that call into question the staying power of the sales growth BABA has seen, that kind of fraud also means that it’s not very likely this company will be welcomed with open arms by Western investors, merchants or consumers.

And most troubling of all is that when Alibaba Group went public, it did so with a very convoluted corporate governance structure that basically renders common shareholders powerless.

Thanks to the hype machine during the run-up to IPO, many folks may not have caught those details. But the recent underperformance of the stock, with BABA down more than 20% YTD, coupled with counterfeiting fears, should remind investors just what kind of company they are looking at with Alibaba.

Source: Investor Place

[behappyalways]

Alibaba founder Jack Ma, the man brands love to hate. Unstoppable, his $200 b empire is built atop a mountain of fakes. And there's little anyone can do about it

福布斯封面是这样介绍马云的
http://www.wenxuecity.com/blog/201512/48304/401290.html

[behappyalways]

馬雲買起《南早》
調整路線　稱報道從此聚焦中國
http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/news/firs ... 2/19409588

[winston]

not vested

Alibaba avoids being named on U.S. blacklist for fakes

Source: Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-t ... ningdigest

[winston]

not vested

Tech Stocks to Buy: Alibaba (BABA)

Alibaba (BABA) stock is well off its low, with gains of about 40% over the last three months. Yet despite this fact, BABA remains very cheap for a company that is expected to grow revenue 30% next year, and grow its profits even faster.

On a trailing-12-month basis, BABA has free cash flow of $8.1 billion, which means it trades at 26 times FCF. In comparison, the slower-growing Amazon.com (AMZN) trades at double that multiple at 58x FCF.

If BABA reaches the $11 billion in FCF that many expect over the next 12 months, it will trade at less than 19x FCF. In retrospect, the actual multiple to FCF is likely far lower due to BABA’s new-found emphasis on buying back stock. Nonetheless, that is far too cheap for a company that still has several years of 20%-plus growth ahead.

Even if BABA were to jump 50% next year, it would still trade at less than 40 times FCF, and likely even lower due to buybacks and accelerated FCF growth. This makes big gains for BABA highly likely.

Source: investor Place

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[winston]

not vested

Valuation

We maintain our Overweight rating with a Dec-16 PT of US$97. Our PT is based on 23x CY2017E P/E and 2017E Non-GAAP FD EPADS of US$4.20. PT implies 1.15x PEG against 2017-19E EPS CAGR of 20%.

We adopt P/E as our primary valuation methodology in valuing Alibaba because valuations of most large-cap Internet names
are earnings driven.

Our target 2017E P/E multiple of 23x is lower than Facebook’s target multiple of 30x 2017E P/E due to Alibaba’s risk exposure to China-specific factors (e.g. macro, VIE structure).

Our target 2017E P/E multiple of 23x is higher than Tencent’s current trading multiple (20x).

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Key risks:
1) large Chinese Internet companies like Tencent and Baidu could pose a potential threat to Alibaba’s Local Services business;
2) 2014 investment cycle might prove to be longer than expected and margin recovery might be later than expected;
3) progress of mobile monetization improvement might be slower than expected, along with sustainability of China’s retail marketplace GMV and revenue growth in the longer run;
4) potential government scrutiny of Internet content and activities in China;
5) potential investor concerns around corporate structure.

Source: JPM

[winston]

Sell China! Ditch Alibaba (BABA) and JD.Com Inc (JD) Stock in 2016

Don't buy BABA or JD on 'weakness'; they each have huge downsides

By John Divine

The yuan has weakened against the U.S. dollar, and all signs point to that continuing, especially with a tightening U.S. monetary policy.

That will have a negative impact on BABA and JD results when they convert their sales in yuan over to U.S. dollars for the purpose of reporting to American investors.

Source: Investor Place

http://investorplace.com/2016/01/alibab ... oxbOhV96M8