AIA Group 1299 02 (Jun 20 - Dec 27)

[winston]

not vested

<Research>CLSA Keeps Outperform on AIA as Annual Results in Line

AIA (01299.HK)'s annual results aligned with expectations, according to a report from CLSA.

AIA's value of new business (VONB) increased by 18% YoY to US$4.712 billion, in line with market expectations, mainly driven by Hong Kong (23% growth), Mainland China (20% growth), and "other markets" (18% growth).

Related News: AIA 2024 VONB Up 17% at AER, In Line, w/ New USD1.6B Shr Buyback

The company's OPAT rose by 7%, also meeting market expectations, while its dividend per share increased by 9%, above expectations by 1%.

Overall, AIA's results largely met expectations. CLSA maintained the Outperform rating unchanged with a target price of $90.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

vested

AIA announced that it had entered into an agreement with an independent broker, under which the broker is appointed to operate the share buy-back program on a discretionary basis and will repurchase up to US$1.6 billion of shares.

Source: AAstocks.com

[winston]

vested

<Research>M Stanley Expects AIA (01299.HK) 1Q VONB Rev. Growth May Be Temporarily Pressured

Morgan Stanley released a research report estimating AIA (01299.HK) to report a 6.9% rise in VONB (at constant exchange rate (CER) basis) in 1Q25, mainly driven by a 7.3% increase in APE and flat gross profit at 54.2%.

The broker believed that the slowdown is temporary, and continued to predict VONB growth of 12% for both 1H25 and for the whole 2025.

Morgan Stanley considered the Company attractively valued. Therefore, the broker rated the Company at Overweight, with a target price of $81.

Related News: UBS Expects AIA (01299.HK) 1Q VONB to Rise 8.5% YoY on CER Basis, Drops TP to $88

China is a drag on growth, with VONB expected to fall by 8% due to assumption changes, according to the report.

The broker projected growth on a comparable basis, and anticipated 2025 VONB growth to be around 10%.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

not vested

AIA Group’s value of new business jumps on strong Hong Kong sales

A 13 per cent rise in its first-quarter value of new business (VONB).

Hong Kong reported a 16 per cent annual increase in VONB

Source: Reuters

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compan ... kong-sales

[winston]

not vested

Good memories

We see Mark Tucker’s appointment from 1 Oct 2025 as AIA’s new chairman as positive given his strong track record and knowledge of its operations.

During his tenure, AIA’s share price rose on average 4% over the 5-day trading window around the company’s results announcements (Fig 1).

Reiterate our Add rating and TP of HK$103. AIA remains one of our top sector picks.

Source: CGS

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... 3728A93DA6

[winston]

not vested

AIA's Aggressive Buybacks: A Vote of Confidence or Undervaluation Signal?

Its Q1 2025 results revealed a 13% year-on-year surge in Value of New Business (VONB) to US$1.497 billion, driven by:

- Premier Agency dominance: Contributing over 75% of VONB, with productivity and recruitment up 8% and 9%, respectively.

- Geographic expansion: New markets in China (e.g., Anhui, Shandong) added 20% VONB growth, while Hong Kong and Thailand thrived.

- Margin expansion: The VONB margin rose to 57.5%, up 3 percentage points, thanks to a shift toward higher-margin protection and savings products.

Risks to Monitor

Interest Rate Fluctuations: AIA's long-dated bond strategy (overweighting 30+ year Chinese government bonds) could face headwinds if rates drop sharply.

Regulatory Risks: China's occasional crackdowns on financial products and global tax reforms (e.g., BEPS 2.0) could pressure margins.

Source: AInvest

https://www.ainvest.com/news/aia-aggres ... hatgpt.com

[winston]

not vested

Unnamed AIA Group shareholder said to sell US$3.4b stake

By Julia Fioretti & Manuel Baigorri

The 394.4 million shares, which represent a 3.7% stake in the Hong Kong-based insurer, were sold at HK$68 apiece. That’s a discount of 6% from AIA’s Thursday close.

Source: Bloomberg

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/761486

[winston]

A Capital question mark?

AIA fell 4.4% today, following a pre-market block trade of 394.4m shares (3.7% of its shares) at HK$68, 6% below yesterday’s close.

While we cannot confirm the seller, we think Capital Group could be a likely seller, given its steady sell-down of its stake from Jan-Oct 2024 to below 5%.

If this is true, we see this large sell-down as a positive as we believe it removes a share price overhang.

Reiterate Add rating on stronger FY25F-27F DPS and VONB growth and capital management initiatives, with an unchanged TP of HK$103.

Source: CGS

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... F31E6BEE37

[winston]

not vested

AIA Group (1299 HK) 1H25: In-line VONB Growth;

Strong OPAT Beat AIA’s 1H25 VONB growth was in line with our expectation, mainly driven by solid growth in Thailand, Hong Kong and Singapore.

Although AIA China still reported negative VONB growth due to assumption changes, margin expansion and strong growth targets in new regions will restore investor confidence in its growth story.

In addition, OPAT growth was a solid beat, supported by higher CSM release and improved operating variances.

Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$91.00.

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... e=hs_email

[winston]

not vested

Aggressive growth target for AIA China

1H25 VONB growth of 14% y/y slightly below consensus; strong margin (+3.4ppt y/y) and CSM growth (+13.5% y/y)

Aggressive target of 40% VONB CAGR for AIA China’s new expanded geographies during 2025-2030 a pleasant surprise

Clear agent and agent leader development path, leveraging AI-driven models for customer and agent-side efficiency and future growth

Revise down FY25/26F earnings by 14%/5% to reflect the fair value changes of participating portfolio, but maintain VNOB, EV, and DPS forecasts; maintain BUY with TP of HKD100

https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/comp ... ecid=27454