Alibaba (BABA)/ 9988 HK; Jack Ma 03 (May 21 - Jun 25)

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Can Alibaba Stock Hit $1,000? What's The Outlook

Summary

The "promotional period" for BABA shares has gone on for too long and patience is wearing thin. On the other hand, there's a camp of investors who welcome this.

Alibaba has considerably more challenges on hand now than in early 2019 (U.S.-China trade war), yet the share price manages to be substantially higher.

Drawing a straightforward trend line price chart, BABA shares could reach $1,000 sometime in the first quarter of 2027 if it crawls along with the support level.

Alibaba's P/E ratio would compress to a mere 11 times on a forward basis (FY2026) and this is based on the current depressed environment.

An investment in Alibaba has several risk factors and I wish to highlight two key ones.

First, its ADR shares are listed through a Variable Interest Entity [VIE] structure. Some analysts have raised the concern that the Chinese government could one day declare the VIE void and the shares could become worthless overnight technically.

Second, the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act [HFCAA] signed into law on 18 December 2020 could result in BABA ADRs delisted from U.S. stock exchanges if Alibaba is unable to fulfill the conditions as stipulated in the Act.

Source: Seeking Alpha

https://seekingalpha.com/article/443391 ... king_alpha

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Alibaba (9988 HK): Potential Passive Inflow Post MSCI Listing Switch

Post MSCI's switch in listing from BABA to 9988 HK, there has been a large increase in CCASS shares.

This will result in an ad hoc rebalance and passive funds will need to buy 46m shares of 9988 HK.

Source: Smart Karma

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CICC: BABA-SW (09988.HK)'s Community Group Buying Buildout Needs 3-5 Yrs; Kept Outperform

Community group buying remains the BABA-SW (09988.HK)'s major focus for business expansion in 2022, reported CICC.

CICC contended that the determining strength in the community group buying business lies in the building of supply chain instead of short-term subsidies for users and it forecast around 3-5 years for BABA-SW to establish a complete supply chain.

CICC rated BABA-SW at Outperform with a target price of $275 as its core e-commerce business has been able to retain a substantial amount of active users while Ali Cloud have been recording steady growth.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

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CICC Expects BABA-SW (09988.HK) 1FQ Rev. to Hike 35% YoY, Non-GAAP NP RMB39B

BABA-SW (09988.HK) 's revenue for the first financial quarter is predicted to rise 35% year-over-year to RMB207.1 billion, with that of its core e-commerce business to hike 16% year-over-year to RMB82.7 billion, 4% lower than the market consensus, mainly due to a high base, reported CICC.

CICC expects BABA-SW's non-GAAP net profit to stay flattish year-over-year at RMB39 billion, in line with estimate.

CICC maintains the Outperform rating for BABA-SW with a HKD275 target price as it forecasts the company's growth drive to stabilize and rebound over the second half of the year.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

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<Result Foresight>Brokers See BABA-SW 1FQ Non-GAAP NP to Fall Over 2%, Eyes Regulatory, Strategic Investment Guidance

BABA-SW (09988.HK) will unveil the 1QFY2022 results ended June 2021 on 3 August. A

ccording to the brokers' forecast as compiled by our reporters, the company's non-GAAP net profit during the quarter may range RMB36.469-42.196 billion, representing a change of negative 7.6% to positive 6.9% yearly. The median is RMB38.585 billion, down 2.3% yearly.

Brokers│1QFY2022 Non-GAAP Net Profit (RMB)│YoY Change
Macquarie│42.196 billion│+6.9%
Haitong International│40.221 billion│+1.9%
JP Morgan│39.745 billion│+0.7%
China Renaissance│39.529 billion│+0.1%
Essence Securities│39.015 billion│-1.2%
KeyBanc│38.585 billion│-2.3%
Citigroup│38.214 billion│-3.2%
Credit Suisse│38.175 billion│-3.3%
Morgan Stanley│37.525 billion│-4.9%
BOCOM International│37.01 billion│-6.2%
Daiwa│36.469 billion│-7.6%

Based on the company's 1QFY2021 non-GAAP net profit at RMB39.474 billion

As China's regulatory pressure on internet platforms persists, investors will eye on the latest operating guidance of BABA-SW on the government antitrust policy, in addition to the company's Ele.me guidance on protection of deliverymen interest, as well as on the group's annual active user indicators and investment in key strategic areas.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

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<Research Report>Ratings, TPs on BABA-SW (09988.HK) (Table)

Brokers│Ratings│TPs (HKD)
Jefferies│Buy│328
Macquarie│Outperform│326
Goldman Sachs │Buy (Conviction Buy List)│321
BOCOM International │Buy│316
First Shanghai│Buy│303.85
UOB Kay Hian│Buy│299
GF Securities│Buy│298.89
Citigroup│Buy│297
Yuanta Securities│Buy│296
JPMorgan│Overweight│295
DBS│Buy│293
CITIC Securities│Buy│288
China Galaxy International│Overweight│287
CCB International │Outperform│283.5
ICBC International│Outperform│280.2
Guotai Junan Securities│Buy│280
BofA Securities│Buy│278
CICC│Outperform│275
Deutsche Bank│Buy│273
UBS│Buy│273
ABC International│Buy│270
Essence Securities│Buy│268
HSBC Global Research│Buy│263
Daiwa│Buy│260
China Merchants Securities International│Buy│255
Credit Suisse │Outperform│245

Source: AAStocks Financial News

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Alibaba – Moderating growth & rising spend priced in – Buy (on CL).

Alibaba is the one company in our coverage universe where the anti-trust investigation is complete, and the Rmb18.2bn penalty paid.

Specific to the business, we observe:
1) Improvement in user engagement (obtaining new users while raising wallet share);
2) BABA remains the most prominent online channel, whose merchant ROI are strengthened by initiatives that waive various operational costs;
3) BABA is on track to expand the logistics/fulfillment infrastructure of its Community Marketplaces (CMP).

BABA is trading at 16x 2023E P/E, reflecting a 45% holdco discount, or 2 sd below the mean in its P/E band. 12m TPs of US$330/HK$321 on ADR/H.

Source: GS

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Alibaba misses revenue estimates as e-commerce growth slows, regulatory crackdown persists

Core commerce revenue for Alibaba rose about 35% to 180.24 billion yuan in the quarter, compared with estimates of 184.23 billion yuan. In the fourth quarter, the unit's revenue surged more than 70%.

Overall, revenue rose about 34% to 205.74 billion yuan ($31.83 billion) in the first quarter ended June 30, below estimates for 209.39 billion yuan, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

Net income attributable to shareholders fell to 45.14 billion yuan, compared with 47.59 billion yuan a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, the company earned 16.60 yuan per share, above estimates for 14.43 yuan.

Source: Reuters

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-ma ... 34-2577153

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Alibaba feeling the pinch as profit falls 5 percent

by Victor Zhong

The company is boosting its share buyback program by 50 percent to US$15 billion. SING TAO

Mainland giant tech Alibaba (9988) saw its net profit fall 5 percent to 45.14 billion yuan (HK$54.30 billion) for the quarter to the end of June with lower-than-estimated revenue.

The first-quarter revenue climbed 33.81 percent year-on-year to 205.7 billion yuan ($31.8 billion), compared with the 209.4 billion yuan average of analyst estimates.

Commerce revenue grew about 35 percent to 180.24 billion yuan in the quarter, compared with estimates of 184.23 billion yuan.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section- ... -5-percent

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Alibaba Group (BABA US)
1QFY22: Softer Growth In Core Commerce And Cloud Revenue; Investment In
New Initiatives Continues

Alibaba reported a solid set of 1QFY22 results.

Revenue of Rmb205.7b rose 34% yoy, in line with our and street estimates.

Adjusted EBITA dropped 8% yoy to Rmb41.7b due to Alibaba’s investment in new initiatives to capture incremental opportunities.

Non-GAAP net profit was Rmb43.4b, up by 10% yoy, beating our and street estimates due to an increased share of profit of equity method investees.

Non-GAAP diluted earnings per ADS was Rmb16.60.

Maintain BUY with a higher target price of US$250.00 (HK$243.00).

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... 348ca5851b