Alibaba (BABA)/ 9988 HK; Jack Ma 04 (Dec 23 - Dec 26)

[winston]

not vested

3QFY3/26F Preview: CMR growth decelerated

We forecast Alibaba’s CMR growth to slow to 3% in 3QFY3/26F (from our previous 5% forecast), due to high base of take rate and trade-in policy in 3QFY3/25.

We expect quick commerce loss to narrow to Rmb25bn in 3QFY3/26F (from Rmb36bn in 2QFY3/26), while instant delivery subsidy war should continue in 2026F.

We expect revenue growth to accelerate to 35% in 3QFY3/26F (from 34% in 2QFY3/26), with a stable EBITA margin of c.9%, helped by stronger external demand.

We forecast revenue to rise 2.5% and non-GAAP NP to fall 44% yoy in 3QFY3/26F. ■
We reiterate our Add call, with a lower DCF-based TP of HK$196.

Source: CGS

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... 41525CFE3B

[winston]

not vested

3QFY26 Results Preview: Lukewarm CMR Growth; Sanguine AI+Cloud Outlook

We expect Alibaba to report a lacklustre set of results for 3QFY26 but forecast a gradual margin recovery on softer investment in instant delivery competition.

We are cautiously optimistic on Alibaba’s core commerce business due to the high base last year and ongoing competition. Nevertheless, we are sanguine on its cloud strategy, which will position the company well to become a technology platform centred on AI + Cloud with long-term strategic value and growth flywheel.

Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of HK$206.00 (US$206.00).

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... e=hs_email

[winston]

not vested

<Research>JPM Estimates BABA-W's T-Head Valuation to Be US$25-62B, Spinoff & Separate Listing Unlikely This Yr

Market sources suggest BABA-W (09988.HK) is considering a spin-off and separate listing of its AI chip division, T-Head, JPMorgan released a research report saying.

BABA-W may first restructure T-Head into an employee-owned company before exploring an IPO, though the specific timing remains unclear.

Founded in 2018, T-Head primarily develops chips for data center, AI and IoT, serving as a core component of BABA-W's 'AI + cloud infrastructure' strategy.

The aforementioned report was surprising, as it implies BABA-W is reconsidering the possibility of unlocking value through capital markets, the broker noted.

Based on rough calculations referencing peer EV/revenue multiples and aggressive 2026 revenue assumptions, if T-Head were to list independently, its valuation could range between US$25 billion and US$62 billion (approx. $195-483.6 billion), representing roughly 6–14% of BABA-W's current market capitalization.

Given T-Head's high dependency on its parent company, BABA-W will require time to expand external client design and orders, strengthen independent governance and employee stock ownership mechanisms, and establish clearer independent economic relationships.

These steps typically take over a year, making a spin-off and separate listing this year unlikely.

Related News - CLSA: BABA-W (09988.HK) Marches into Nuclear Power Sector; More Co-op News Expected This Yr

Therefore, JPMorgan kept rating at Overweight on BABA-W, with a target price of $210.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

not vested

<Research>Nomura Elevates Alibaba Group (BABA.US) TP to US$237, Keeps Buy Rating

It is reported that Alibaba Group Holding (BABA.US) planned to spin off its semiconductor chip business, T-Head, for a separate listing, Nomura published a research report saying.

Although the Company has not officially confirmed the news, analysis suggests that the possibility of an IPO for T-Head is quite high.

Therefore, the broker elevated its target price for Alibaba Group Holding's US stock from US$193 to US$237, with rating kept at Buy.

Nomura also believed that T-Head can be considered alongside Baidu (BIDU.US) 's Kunlunxin and CAMBRICON (688256.SH) as one of Chinese top chip designers.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

not vested

Alibaba eyes sky-high chip valuations with T-Head spinoff plan

Shares of rival chipmaker Biren have nearly doubled since their Jan. 2 Hong Kong trading debut, while Moore Threads is up nearly fivefold since its December Shanghai listing

Source: Bamboo Works

https://thebambooworks.com/alibaba-eyes ... noff-plan/

[behappyalways]

A "bubble tea frenzy" has erupted across China, with delivery drivers crowding bubble tea shops. Downloading an app offers free bubble tea, and Alibaba is spending heavily to attract new users.

中國各地爆發"奶茶之亂" 外送員擠爆手搖店 下載App就有免費奶茶 阿里巴巴砸錢吸新用戶│記者 劉玨妤│國際焦點20260212│三立新聞台

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wk-uDnR8SNw

[behappyalways]

Alibaba Stock Nosedives, Then Rebounds, After Pentagon Designates Company As "Military Linked", Before Inexplicably Deleting
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/aliba ... ary-linked