AIA Group 1299

[winston]

AIA’s first-quarter new business value rises 31%, announces US$2 billion buyback

Hong Kong-based insurer AIA Group on Monday posted a 31 per cent rise in its first-quarter value of new business (VONB) on a constant exchange currency basis and announced an additional US$2 billion share buyback.

AIA’s VONB, which gauges expected profits from new premiums and is a key barometer for future growth, came in at US$1.33 billion in the three months ending March 31 compared with US$1.05 billion a year ago.

Source: REUTERS

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compan ... on-buyback

[winston]

vested

1Q Results

VONB: +31%; US$1.3b

US$2.0 billion addition to existing share buy-back programme, bringing the total to US$12.0 billion

https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listc ... 900001.pdf

[winston]

vested

AIA Group
What is ‘very strong’?

We forecast 32% 1Q24F VONB growth (AIA-provided consensus is 19%), driven by HK (>35% growth)/ China (>30% growth) strength.

We see very strong HK sequential growth off a high 4Q23 base (which is a seasonally high quarter) as setting the stage for strong 1Q24F yoy growth.

Reiterate Add. TP unchanged at HK$95. AIA is still our sector top pick.

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... 4A846BCBCF

[winston]

vested

AIA Group (1299 HK)
Strong VONB Beat In 1Q24 With Enhanced Capital Management Plan

AIA’s 1Q24 VONB came in above our estimate with a 31% yoy growth, driven by a 26%
growth in ANP and margin recovery in the Greater China business.

AIA announced its enhanced capital management policy — adding US$2.0b to the existing share
repurchase programme and bringing total shareholder return to 8.4%.

Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$95.00.

With upside surprise from 1Q24 VONB growth and shareholder returns, we expect valuation re-rating to persist in the near term.

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... e=hs_email

[winston]

Focus on dividends, not buybacks

We expect AIA’s DPS to deliver 10% CAGR over FY23-26F and estimate annual net FSG less its dividend of ~US$0.1bn-0.2bn over FY24F-26F.

We thus do not see much room for any sizeable buybacks in FY25F after its Apr US$2bn buyback increase, unless AIA’s leverage ratio is raised.

This is due to constraints from its 75% target of annual net FSG plus its target of total capital resources comfortably exceeding 200% of required capital.

We see a possible US$5.8bn buyback after end-FY25F, if AIA’s leverage ratio rises 6% pts to 20%. Reiterate Add rating and TP of HK$95.

Source: CIMB

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... 202D5E4DDA