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<Research>CICC Says AIA Shr Price Trend Deviates from Fundamentals, Draws Attention to Buybacks & Div.
AIA (01299.HK) 's share price has drifted lower since the release of its 2023 annual report, closing at $48.6 on 12 April 2024 (last Friday), with valuation falling below CICC's forecast of 1x 2024 P/EV.
The broker maintained its earnings forecast on the company. In light of the fading trust of the market in the P/EV valuation system, CICC axed its TP by 21% to $74, and kept Outperform rating.
According to CICC, the arrest of unlicensed brokers by the Insurance Authority and the ICAC raised concerns about AIA's Mainland China Visitor (MCV) business in Hong Kong.
Overall, AIA Hong Kong accounted for 33% of the Group's VONB in 2023, of which approximately 50% stemmed from MCVs and approximately 1/3 of MCV policies from brokers. This means that the Hong Kong, China brokerage channel will contribute approximately 5% to AIA's VONB.
CICC continued to believe that AIA's competitive advantage over its peers on the liability side is longevity and stability.
However, in the current environment where the share of savings and bancassurance is increasing in many regions, it may be difficult for AIA to outperform its peers as much as it has done in the past.
It is important to keep an eye on the company's subsequent profit, VONB and operating profit trends compared to its peers, CICC highlighted.
The broker recommended to pay attention to the first quarter or interim results of the company which will state the company's stance on buybacks or dividends.
If the buybacks continue, it is expected to bolster the share price strongly.
Source: AAStocks Financial News
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN
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AIA Group 1299
Re: AIA Group 1299
by winston » Mon Apr 15, 2024 10:47 am
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Re: AIA Group 1299
by winston » Mon Apr 15, 2024 1:54 pm
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<Research>M Stanley: Joint Operation by IA, ICAC Expected to Have Limited Impact on AIA (01299.HK)
The joint operation by the Insurance Authority (IA) and the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) on the suspected unlicensed sale of insurance policies to mainland visitors raised market concerns, Morgan Stanley issued a research report saying.
However, Morgan Stanley believed that the impact on AIA (01299.HK) will be limited as the majority of its Hong Kong business is sold through a disciplined agency channel, and the broker expected the Company's market share to increase.
Related News: JPM Foresees AIA (01299.HK)'s 1Q24 NBV to Grow 19%, Rating Overweight
67% of AIA's Hong Kong business came from its own agency channel in 2023, which is more disciplined, while other small- and medium-sized insurers are more reliant on broker sales, according to the report.
Morgan Stanley believed that the industry will become more regulated and competition will become more moderate.
AIA Hong Kong's market share inclined in 2H23, and the trend is expected to continue this year. Morgan Stanley rated AIA at Overweight, with a target price of $94.
Source: AAStocks Financial News
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN
<Research>M Stanley: Joint Operation by IA, ICAC Expected to Have Limited Impact on AIA (01299.HK)
The joint operation by the Insurance Authority (IA) and the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) on the suspected unlicensed sale of insurance policies to mainland visitors raised market concerns, Morgan Stanley issued a research report saying.
However, Morgan Stanley believed that the impact on AIA (01299.HK) will be limited as the majority of its Hong Kong business is sold through a disciplined agency channel, and the broker expected the Company's market share to increase.
Related News: JPM Foresees AIA (01299.HK)'s 1Q24 NBV to Grow 19%, Rating Overweight
67% of AIA's Hong Kong business came from its own agency channel in 2023, which is more disciplined, while other small- and medium-sized insurers are more reliant on broker sales, according to the report.
Morgan Stanley believed that the industry will become more regulated and competition will become more moderate.
AIA Hong Kong's market share inclined in 2H23, and the trend is expected to continue this year. Morgan Stanley rated AIA at Overweight, with a target price of $94.
Source: AAStocks Financial News
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN
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Re: AIA Group 1299
by winston » Tue Apr 16, 2024 1:59 pm
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<Research>M Stanley Expects AIA (01299.HK) 1Q24 VNB to Lift 19% YoY in AER Terms
Morgan Stanley expected in a report that AIA (01299.HK) 's value of new business (VNB) in 1Q24 would elevate 19% YoY on an actual exchange rate (AER) basis and 23% on a constant exchange rate (CER) basis, driven by strong growth in the Mainland, Hong Kong and Thailand.
The broker considered AIA's margins to have bottomed out and believed its financials were recovering.
The broker maintained AIA's Overweight rating and its target price of $94.
Related News - JPM: AIA (01299.HK) Shr Price Expected to Recover, Tests Investors' Patience
Morgan Stanley expected Mainland China to be the key driver of AIA's VNB, with VNB for 1Q from this market estimated to hike 26% YoY in AER terms, mainly due to a low base of comparison given Covid still plagued in January 2023, while customer demand remained strong in the quarter.
In Hong Kong, VNB is estimated to lift 27% in 1Q, with steady growth in the local market and a QoQ increase in Mainland Chinese Visitors.
The broker would keep monitoring the regulatory news but believed the impact would be minimal.
In the ASEAN countries, AIA's performance in 1Q was solid, with Thailand the highlight and India slowing slightly but still growing at a healthy rate, the broker commented.
Source: AAStocks Financial News
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN
<Research>M Stanley Expects AIA (01299.HK) 1Q24 VNB to Lift 19% YoY in AER Terms
Morgan Stanley expected in a report that AIA (01299.HK) 's value of new business (VNB) in 1Q24 would elevate 19% YoY on an actual exchange rate (AER) basis and 23% on a constant exchange rate (CER) basis, driven by strong growth in the Mainland, Hong Kong and Thailand.
The broker considered AIA's margins to have bottomed out and believed its financials were recovering.
The broker maintained AIA's Overweight rating and its target price of $94.
Related News - JPM: AIA (01299.HK) Shr Price Expected to Recover, Tests Investors' Patience
Morgan Stanley expected Mainland China to be the key driver of AIA's VNB, with VNB for 1Q from this market estimated to hike 26% YoY in AER terms, mainly due to a low base of comparison given Covid still plagued in January 2023, while customer demand remained strong in the quarter.
In Hong Kong, VNB is estimated to lift 27% in 1Q, with steady growth in the local market and a QoQ increase in Mainland Chinese Visitors.
The broker would keep monitoring the regulatory news but believed the impact would be minimal.
In the ASEAN countries, AIA's performance in 1Q was solid, with Thailand the highlight and India slowing slightly but still growing at a healthy rate, the broker commented.
Source: AAStocks Financial News
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN
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Re: AIA Group 1299
by winston » Wed Apr 17, 2024 1:20 pm
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<Research>Nomura Foresees AIA's Strong VONB Growth Intact; 1Q Growth 20% YoY on AER
Nomura, in its report, forecast AIA (01299.HK) 's 1Q24F Value of New Business (VONB) to be US$1.255 billion, representing growth of 20% at actual exchange rate (AER) and 23% at constant exchange rate (CER), with largely stable VONB margin and annualized new premium (ANP) up 19% YoY.
The broker estimated that AIA Hong Kong's VONB will rise 30% YoY, in line with the growth in Mainland Chinese Visitors (MCVs) , and expected VONB in Hong Kong to grow by 16% for 2024 as a whole and by 12% in 2025.
The recent investigations by the Insurance Authority (IA) and the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) into sales malpractice will have a manageable impact on AIA's Hong Kong business, Nomura opined.
The broker expected VONB for AIA Mainland China to increase by 24% YoY in 1Q24F, in line with management guidance.
The business in Southeast Asia is growing steadily, with VONB up 12% YoY, while other markets are up 4%.
The broker maintained its Buy rating with a target price of $90.88.
Source: AAStocks Financial News
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN
<Research>Nomura Foresees AIA's Strong VONB Growth Intact; 1Q Growth 20% YoY on AER
Nomura, in its report, forecast AIA (01299.HK) 's 1Q24F Value of New Business (VONB) to be US$1.255 billion, representing growth of 20% at actual exchange rate (AER) and 23% at constant exchange rate (CER), with largely stable VONB margin and annualized new premium (ANP) up 19% YoY.
The broker estimated that AIA Hong Kong's VONB will rise 30% YoY, in line with the growth in Mainland Chinese Visitors (MCVs) , and expected VONB in Hong Kong to grow by 16% for 2024 as a whole and by 12% in 2025.
The recent investigations by the Insurance Authority (IA) and the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) into sales malpractice will have a manageable impact on AIA's Hong Kong business, Nomura opined.
The broker expected VONB for AIA Mainland China to increase by 24% YoY in 1Q24F, in line with management guidance.
The business in Southeast Asia is growing steadily, with VONB up 12% YoY, while other markets are up 4%.
The broker maintained its Buy rating with a target price of $90.88.
Source: AAStocks Financial News
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN
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Re: AIA Group 1299
by winston » Fri Apr 19, 2024 9:12 am
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Historically strong bounces from 25% falls
AIA’s share price fell 25% mom on 13 Apr 2024, the third such fall since its 2010 IPO (-25% mom on 4 Oct 2011 and 19 Mar 2020).
The first two 25% fall incidences saw a ≥20% rebound a month after (Fig 1).
Four cases of ≥20% mom rebounds occurred within a year of Mar 2020’s fall.
AIA’s 12-month forward P/EV and P/E (operating) are all >3 s.d. below its post-2017 mean (Figs 3-4). We see its valuations as extremely attractive.
Reiterate Add rating with TP unchanged at HK$95. Remains top sector pick.
Source: CIMB
https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... B344D5A3AD
Historically strong bounces from 25% falls
AIA’s share price fell 25% mom on 13 Apr 2024, the third such fall since its 2010 IPO (-25% mom on 4 Oct 2011 and 19 Mar 2020).
The first two 25% fall incidences saw a ≥20% rebound a month after (Fig 1).
Four cases of ≥20% mom rebounds occurred within a year of Mar 2020’s fall.
AIA’s 12-month forward P/EV and P/E (operating) are all >3 s.d. below its post-2017 mean (Figs 3-4). We see its valuations as extremely attractive.
Reiterate Add rating with TP unchanged at HK$95. Remains top sector pick.
Source: CIMB
https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... B344D5A3AD
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Re: AIA Group 1299
by winston » Tue Apr 23, 2024 1:32 pm
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A screaming BUY after recent crash
Recent sharp share price correction reflects market concerns over
a) China de-rating,
b) ambiguity over AIA China’s channel strategy,
c) margin dilution risk, and
d) capital management
Mid-to-long-term growth remains robust, with new geographical expansions serving as a strong growth driver.
Trading at forward 0.9x P/EV, we believe market is over-discounting AIA’s long-term value
Expansion in high-end banca channel is a good supplement to its premium agency strategy with manageable margin dilution risk
Lower TP to HK$100 to reflect a prolonged macro risk scenario in China, based on our two-stage growth model. Reiterate BUY
Source: DBS
https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/comp ... ecid=19081
A screaming BUY after recent crash
Recent sharp share price correction reflects market concerns over
a) China de-rating,
b) ambiguity over AIA China’s channel strategy,
c) margin dilution risk, and
d) capital management
Mid-to-long-term growth remains robust, with new geographical expansions serving as a strong growth driver.
Trading at forward 0.9x P/EV, we believe market is over-discounting AIA’s long-term value
Expansion in high-end banca channel is a good supplement to its premium agency strategy with manageable margin dilution risk
Lower TP to HK$100 to reflect a prolonged macro risk scenario in China, based on our two-stage growth model. Reiterate BUY
Source: DBS
https://www.dbs.com/insightsdirect/comp ... ecid=19081
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Re: AIA Group 1299
by winston » Wed Apr 24, 2024 7:21 am
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<Research>Citi Forecasts AIA (01299.HK) 1Q VoNB to Rise 21% YoY in AER Terms, Keeps AIA as One of Top Picks
2024/04/22
Citi Research issued a report, expecting AIA (01299.HK) 's value of new business (VoNB) to elevate 24% YoY at constant exchange rate (CER) terms and 21% at actual exchange rate (AER) terms in 1Q24, benefiting from strong business in China and Hong Kong, as well as a lower base due to Covid impacts in January last year.
At CER terms, VoNB is forecasted to grow 22% YoY in the Mainland and 42% YoY in Hong Kong. Mainland Chinese Visitor (MCV) arrivals to Hong Kong in 1Q24 have recovered to 71% of 1Q18.
Excluding Mainland China and Hong Kong, the broker expected the trend in the business of other regions in 2H23 to continue into 1Q24.
AIA remained one of Citi's top picks, with a target price of $100 and a Buy rating.
Source: AAStocks Financial News
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/analy ... stock-news
<Research>Citi Forecasts AIA (01299.HK) 1Q VoNB to Rise 21% YoY in AER Terms, Keeps AIA as One of Top Picks
2024/04/22
Citi Research issued a report, expecting AIA (01299.HK) 's value of new business (VoNB) to elevate 24% YoY at constant exchange rate (CER) terms and 21% at actual exchange rate (AER) terms in 1Q24, benefiting from strong business in China and Hong Kong, as well as a lower base due to Covid impacts in January last year.
At CER terms, VoNB is forecasted to grow 22% YoY in the Mainland and 42% YoY in Hong Kong. Mainland Chinese Visitor (MCV) arrivals to Hong Kong in 1Q24 have recovered to 71% of 1Q18.
Excluding Mainland China and Hong Kong, the broker expected the trend in the business of other regions in 2H23 to continue into 1Q24.
AIA remained one of Citi's top picks, with a target price of $100 and a Buy rating.
Source: AAStocks Financial News
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/analy ... stock-news
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Re: AIA Group 1299
by winston » Wed Apr 24, 2024 7:26 am
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<Research>G Sachs Forecasts AIA (01299.HK) 1Q24 VONB to Lift 19% YoY in AER Terms
Goldman Sachs wrote in a report that AIA (01299.HK) will announce its 1Q24 operating data before the market opens on 29 April.
The broker expected AIA to maintain strong growth in value of new business (VONB), up 23% at constant exchange rates and 19% at actual exchange rates, driven by strong growth in Hong Kong, the Mainland and Thailand.
Goldman highlighted that AIA's share price has crumpled by 28% since the announcement of its 2023 results.
The stock is now trading at 1.5x 2024 forecasted P/B ratio, compared with 1.2x of European and 1.3x of US life insurance peers, which is believed to reflect investors' concerns about its shareholder return policy and growth performance of its mainland business.
The broker further believed the company would need to disclose more about its future shareholder returns and the impact of lower interest rates on its Mainland business.
Related News: JPM: AIA PEV Just 0.95x; Div. Adjustment, Regular Shr Buybacks Expected to be Considered to Improve Capital Return
Taking into account the more attractive risk-return profile following the fall in share price, Goldman maintained its Buy rating on AIA and kept the stock on its Conviction Buy List, with a target price of $98.
The broker forecasted AIA to achieve an 11% compound annual growth rate in operating profit after tax from 2024-26, with total shareholder return of US$5.2 billion for 2024 after dividends and buybacks, implying a yield of 7.7%, which may provide short-term support to the share price.
Related News: UBS Forecasts AIA (01299.HK) 1Q24 VNB to Hike 20% on AER Basis
Source: AAStocks Financial News
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/analy ... stock-news
<Research>G Sachs Forecasts AIA (01299.HK) 1Q24 VONB to Lift 19% YoY in AER Terms
Goldman Sachs wrote in a report that AIA (01299.HK) will announce its 1Q24 operating data before the market opens on 29 April.
The broker expected AIA to maintain strong growth in value of new business (VONB), up 23% at constant exchange rates and 19% at actual exchange rates, driven by strong growth in Hong Kong, the Mainland and Thailand.
Goldman highlighted that AIA's share price has crumpled by 28% since the announcement of its 2023 results.
The stock is now trading at 1.5x 2024 forecasted P/B ratio, compared with 1.2x of European and 1.3x of US life insurance peers, which is believed to reflect investors' concerns about its shareholder return policy and growth performance of its mainland business.
The broker further believed the company would need to disclose more about its future shareholder returns and the impact of lower interest rates on its Mainland business.
Related News: JPM: AIA PEV Just 0.95x; Div. Adjustment, Regular Shr Buybacks Expected to be Considered to Improve Capital Return
Taking into account the more attractive risk-return profile following the fall in share price, Goldman maintained its Buy rating on AIA and kept the stock on its Conviction Buy List, with a target price of $98.
The broker forecasted AIA to achieve an 11% compound annual growth rate in operating profit after tax from 2024-26, with total shareholder return of US$5.2 billion for 2024 after dividends and buybacks, implying a yield of 7.7%, which may provide short-term support to the share price.
Related News: UBS Forecasts AIA (01299.HK) 1Q24 VNB to Hike 20% on AER Basis
Source: AAStocks Financial News
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/analy ... stock-news
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Re: AIA Group 1299
by winston » Wed Apr 24, 2024 8:53 am
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Apr 23, 2024
Returning to basics: Need VONB beats
What will it take to restore investor confidence? We think the first step needs to be a significant VONB beat vs. Bloomberg consensus at its 1Q24 results.
Consistent strong beats vs. consensus, stable-centric strong VONB growth, plus expansion into new China regions had been past key re-rating drivers.
Capital management initiatives may provide a short-term boost to confidence but we see this less key than strong VONB growth for any major re-rating.
Reiterate Add. TP unchanged at HK$95. AIA is still top sector pick.
Source: CIMB
https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... 44EBE94EDD
Apr 23, 2024
Returning to basics: Need VONB beats
What will it take to restore investor confidence? We think the first step needs to be a significant VONB beat vs. Bloomberg consensus at its 1Q24 results.
Consistent strong beats vs. consensus, stable-centric strong VONB growth, plus expansion into new China regions had been past key re-rating drivers.
Capital management initiatives may provide a short-term boost to confidence but we see this less key than strong VONB growth for any major re-rating.
Reiterate Add. TP unchanged at HK$95. AIA is still top sector pick.
Source: CIMB
https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... 44EBE94EDD
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Re: AIA Group 1299
by winston » Fri Apr 26, 2024 11:08 am
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<Research>CLSA Reiterates Buy on AIA (01299.HK), Citing Historically Low Current Valuation
CLSA commented in a report that AIA (01299.HK) has suffered an unexpected drop in share price after disclosing last year's results, which the broker attributes to concerns about the macro environment.
However, the company's fundamentals remained sound.
The broker expected AIA's value of new business to grow by 18% in 1Q24.
With valuation at a historically low level and a 6% return to shareholders, CLSA reiterated its Buy rating on the company and maintained its target price at $80.
Related News: Citi Forecasts AIA (01299.HK) 1Q VoNB to Rise 21% YoY in AER Terms, Keeps as One of Top Picks
Source: AAStocks Financial News
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN
<Research>CLSA Reiterates Buy on AIA (01299.HK), Citing Historically Low Current Valuation
CLSA commented in a report that AIA (01299.HK) has suffered an unexpected drop in share price after disclosing last year's results, which the broker attributes to concerns about the macro environment.
However, the company's fundamentals remained sound.
The broker expected AIA's value of new business to grow by 18% in 1Q24.
With valuation at a historically low level and a 6% return to shareholders, CLSA reiterated its Buy rating on the company and maintained its target price at $80.
Related News: Citi Forecasts AIA (01299.HK) 1Q VoNB to Rise 21% YoY in AER Terms, Keeps as One of Top Picks
Source: AAStocks Financial News
http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN
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