Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Jan 21)

Re: Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Sep 24, 2018 1:15 pm

Oil: 70.78, +0.46. Trying to break past the recent 4 week highs.
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Re: Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Tue Sep 25, 2018 7:51 am

Rising crude prices

Fall in Iranian exports prior to the actual imposition of US sanctions is greater than expected.

If this is continuing (and there are insufficient Russian, Chinese, and European counter measures), drop in global aggregate production is likely to be greater than expected, resulting in higher crude prices.

Source: Oil & Energy Investor
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Re: Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:46 am

Oil: 71.34, +0.37

Oil sold to the 50 day EMA on the week, showing a doji there Friday.

Still looks strong overall but it did give up its higher high hit two weeks back.

Source: Investment House
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Re: Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Thu Nov 01, 2018 4:37 am

Crude oil just had its worst month in two years

by Heidi Chung

After hitting four-year highs at the beginning of October, WTI crude oil futures (CL=F) fell 14% from those highs and had their worst monthly performance since July of 2016.

Increases in global supply, as well as trade war tensions between the US and China, sent oil plunging earlier in the week.


The White House is going to be quite stringent in granting significant reduction exemptions and that around 1.6 million barrels of Iranian exports will be off the market by Q1 2019, and that will lead to tighter supply.


“We are in a critical area of support at the $65 level. This is where the market bottomed in August, in June and back in the spring.

In the short to medium term, I think we sought out a bottom.

I see a potential rebound back above $70 a barrel as demand picks up but not much higher than the mid 70s”.


Source: Yahoo Finance

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crude-oi ... 02169.html
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Re: Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:21 pm

Why Oil Prices Will Fall In 2019 And Beyond

by Nick Cunningham

Source: Oilprice.com

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-oil- ... 00161.html
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Re: Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Nov 12, 2018 8:40 am

Saudi Arabia in talks to cut oil output after US waivers hit prices

Saudi Arabia is discussing a proposal that could see OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers cut output by up to 1 million barrels per day.

Washington gave 180-day waivers to eight Iranian oil buyers - China, India, South Korea, Japan, Italy, Greece, Taiwan and Turkey. This group takes as much as three-quarters of Iran's seaborne oil exports.


Source: Reuters

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... JkRITkk.99
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Re: Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Tue Nov 13, 2018 5:53 am

US crude posts longest losing streak on record

by Emily McCormick

Saudi Arabia will slash oil exports by about 500,000 barrels per day from November to December, Khalid al-Falih, the country’s energy minister, said over the weekend at a meeting of oil producers in Abu Dhabi.

Falih added there may be a need to cut next year’s oil supply by around 1 million barrels per day from October in order to balance an over-supplied market.

Russian oil minister Alexander Novak said Russia will consider cuts if they are approved by producers including OPEC.

The discussions of oil export and production cuts come in the midst of concerns of a supply glut. Brent crude, the international benchmark, was down about 20% from its Oct. 3 high to $70.18 last week.

Output has continued to accelerate for domestic oil, sending prices for West Texas intermediate crude tumbling. Domestic oil prices initially rose Monday morning but gave up gains later in the day, falling to $59.93.

President Donald Trump said in a Twitter post Monday that he hopes OPEC countries will not go through with plans to cut oil production and added that prices should be much lower based on supply.

Trump last week took credit for the recent sharp declines in oil prices after temporarily exempting eight countries from sanctions on oil exports from Iran.

“I really did it because I don’t want to drive oil prices up to $100 a barrel or $150 a barrel, because I’m driving them down,” Trump said in a press conference last week.

“If you look at oil prices, they’ve come down very substantially over the last couple of months. That’s because of me. Because you have a monopoly called OPEC…and I don’t like that monopoly.”

Source: Yahoo Finance
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Re: Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Wed Nov 14, 2018 3:46 pm

<Research Report>CICC Foresees Global Oil Mkt Re-balance

CICC issued an energy outlook report for 2019-2020.

Looking ahead, the demand growth of the entire energy sector will slide in wake of feeble global economic growth in 2019.

Meanwhile, signals of increased supply sparked by high oil prices in the past year will become apparent.

The research house forecast there will be a re-balance of low growth in supply/ demand next year, with steady prices, under the base case scenario that the fundamental pressure observed by CICC in the past will shrug off considerably in next 12 months.

Under base case, CICC estimated the oil market will regain its balance from a shortage of 200,000 bpd to an oversupply of 100,000 bpd next year.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Dec 19)

Postby behappyalways » Sat Nov 17, 2018 7:10 pm

Trumpsy turvy

The oil price swings dramatically
Blame the turmoil on American policy

THE OIL price was supposed to be soaring around now. With American sanctions against Iran taking effect earlier this month, exports from that country, the world’s fourth-largest producer of crude oil last year, were expected to shrink to close to zero.

In anticipation the price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, went above $86 in early October, a four-year-high, and some warned of prices above $100 a barrel.

Instead, by November 8th oil had entered a bear market. The price of Brent crude stood at $66.53 on November 14th. West Texas Intermediate, the American oil benchmark, dropped for 12 straight trading sessions, until November 14th, when it at last ticked up (see chart). That was the longest uninterrupted decline in over three decades. American crude futures have plunged by 20% from their recent peak.

Some of the reasons for the slump are standard fare. In October the IMF lowered its forecast for global economic growth. Trouble in emerging markets has an outsize effect on their demand for dollar-denominated oil, as it becomes more expensive in weakening local currencies.

But the oil market’s recent volatility also reflects new forces, including the limits of conventional producers and the peculiar impact of America’s president, Donald Trump.

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia, aspires to cosy stability. Prices should be high enough to sustain its members’ budgets and low enough to support global demand. But its grip has slipped. There are now three dominant oil producers: America, Saudi Arabia and Russia, only one of which is a member.

As America’s shale industry has boomed, Saudi Arabia has turned to Russia to help co-ordinate production. Their interests are not perfectly aligned. Saudi Arabia’s oil minister, Khalid al-Falih, this week said the kingdom would lower output by 500,000 barrels a day in December; Russia’s oil minister doubted that there would be oversupply.

But it is America that has had the greatest destabilising effect. This year it became the world’s top producer of crude. Its shale companies are pumping out oil at a phenomenal rate. Output in August was 23% above the level 12 months earlier. But the shale industry is beholden to investors, not an oil minister, and production may taper if oil prices continue to slide and investors demand higher returns. On top of that come Mr Trump’s policies, which are helping to shove oil markets this way and that.

After he announced sanctions on Iran in May, OPEC and its allies agreed to increase output. Production from Saudi Arabia and Russia has climbed to record highs. Then, on November 5th, America announced that it would grant 180-day waivers to China, India and six other countries to continue to import from Iran—countries that together account for more than 75% of Iranian exports, according to Sanford C. Bernstein, a research firm.

Mr Trump’s trade policies are also depressing demand for oil. The IMF’s lower forecast for growth is due in part to a slowdown in emerging markets, but also to rising tensions between America and its trading partners, a strain that further weakens emerging economies. The growth in air freight and shipping has fallen by about half in the past year, says Edward Morse of Citigroup, depressing demand for diesel fuel.

Mr Trump’s trade war with China is particularly important for oil markets, as China accounted for about 40% of the growth in demand for oil last year. On November 13th OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil demand next year.

But even as oil prices fall, there is reason to think they could spike again soon. More production cuts may come next month, after OPEC and its partners meet in Vienna. On top of uncertainty in Iran, disruption in Venezuela, Libya, Nigeria or Iraq could squeeze global supply. These “fragile five”, as some investors call them, accounted for 12% of global oil production from July to September, more than Saudi Arabia.

Then there is always the possibility that Mr Trump could reverse course—striking a trade deal with China, for instance, or tightening restrictions on Iran once more. Or he might simply write a tweet. On November 12th he took to Twitter to call on OPEC to refrain from cutting production. The oil price fell.

Source: The Economist
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Re: Oil 11 (Nov 17 - Dec 19)

Postby winston » Mon Nov 19, 2018 8:01 am

Oil: 56.68, 0.00.

Rallied modestly Wednesday to Friday after a massive Tuesday drop that ended a 3 week move straight down.

Not much of a bounce, just a weak relief move thus far.

Source: Investment House
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