Aluminum

Re: Aluminum

Postby winston » Fri Aug 11, 2017 8:03 am

Chart of the day: High jinks in aluminium

by Nicole Elliott

As we wrote in June, the most active aluminium contract (for October delivery) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange this week burst through the mean regression.

Very good volume, rising open interest and forward prices in contango to July 2018 suggest many believe the outlook for this base metal is rosy.

While the long-term picture remains positive, with all aspects of the weekly Ichimoku cloud chart system being bullish (as are long-term moving averages), we would tread carefully over the next few weeks.

The market is more overbought than it has been in three years and it has stalled at one standard deviation above its mean regression, suggesting time for consolidation.

Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/commoditie ... -aluminium
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Re: Aluminum

Postby winston » Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:38 am

China’s Aluminium Industry Supply-Side Reform Underway; Chalco A Key Beneficiary

As the key focus of China’s supply-side reform, aluminium capacity elimination is accelerating in 2H17.

The impact from the shutdown of “illegal” capacities and environmental inspections has exceeded market expectations.

As the heating season production cuts are about to kick off earlier than expected, China’s domestic aluminium supply is expected to tighten in 4Q17.

Chalco (2600 HK) is set to be a key beneficiary of the aluminium sector’s structural reform as well as the SOE reform, in our view.

Chinese market supply expected to tighten in 4Q17 and 1Q18; upside risk to aluminium price.


Key downside risks on aluminium prices include slower-than-expected Chinese aluminium production cuts, weaker-than-expected demand, higher-than-expected inventory in China, Chinese supply-side reform policy change, etc.


Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... 45f73b64c9
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Re: Aluminum

Postby winston » Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:10 pm

Will Political Meddling Cut Aluminum’s Staggering Performance Short?

By Matthew Carr

Essentially, China got around to cracking down on illegal aluminum-producing plants. The government shuttered 2 million metric tons of illegal production.

In fact, there could be as many as 6 million metric tons of illegal production in China. And as many as 6 million metric tons have come offline.


China produced 28 million vehicles last year and is the largest automotive market in the world.


Source: The Oxford Club

https://energyandresourcesdigest.com/al ... ?src=email
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Re: Aluminum

Postby winston » Sat Oct 28, 2017 8:23 am

US imposes anti-dumping duties on Chinese aluminium foil in latest dispute over trade

The Commerce Department said on Friday it would impose preliminary import duties in the range of 96.81 per cent to 162.24 per cent on Chinese aluminium foil, saying the goods are being sold at unfairly low prices.


In August, Commerce imposed preliminary duties on Chinese aluminium foil, ranging from 16.56 per cent to 80.97 per cent, citing state subsidies for the domestic industry that disadvantage American products.


In addition, Commerce is examining aluminium imports from China and other foreign nations under the seldom-used Section 232 of the 1960s trade law that allows for tariffs on imports that pose a national security risk.


Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/global-eco ... oil-latest
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Re: Aluminum

Postby winston » Wed Nov 08, 2017 8:13 am

Chart of the day: Aluminium alert

by Nicole Elliott

As we warned mid-August, the leap higher during the week ending August 11 proved a step too far and too sudden for Shanghai aluminium, and it was time to consolidate those gains.

This is exactly what has happened since then, with volume back down to more normal levels and open interest levelling out.

The sideways move has brought prices back down almost to the mean regression, correcting a Fibonacci 38 per cent of the summer’s gains.

Because all aspects of the weekly Ichimoku cloud system are bullish we are looking for the market to try to form an interim base between now and the end of the year.

Preferably around the 15,855 yuan (US$2,390) area, and no lower than the 50 per cent retracement level at 15,400 yuan per tonne.

Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/money/mark ... nium-alert
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Re: Aluminum

Postby winston » Mon Dec 04, 2017 6:22 pm

Cheers China! Beer Can Switch to Boost Aluminum, Rio Tinto Says

Also sees demand being boosted by the forecast rise of electric vehicles and the push by manufacturers to produce lighter cars to reduce emissions.


“In the packaging sector, especially around soft drinks and beer in China, we’re seeing a shift from glass to aluminum".


Rio forecasts aluminum demand to rise about 4 percent a year for the next five years, and is yet to factor in the likely additional benefits that’ll flow from the adoption of electric vehicles, which typically use more of the metal than conventional vehicles.


Global consumption of refined aluminum is likely to have annual growth of 3 percent to 4 percent in 2018 and 2019, while China’s curbs to supply will act “as a long-term game changer,” spurring price gains to incentivize the addition of new capacity elsewhere.



Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cheers-c ... 37392.html
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Re: Aluminum

Postby winston » Sat Jan 06, 2018 8:36 am

Chart of the day: Putting a polish on aluminium

by Nicole Elliott

Sometimes chart analysis works so well one wonders why the connection was not spotted sooner.

The Shanghai aluminium futures contracts have been rallying steadily for two consecutive years, hugging the mean regression and keeping within one standard deviation of it.

The market had formed an interim base before the end of the year, as expected, against the lower standard deviation, helped by a steeply rising weekly Ichimoku cloud.

While lower than we had pencilled in, this is seen as a handy level at which to go long again or add to existing bullish positions.

Volume is back down at more normal levels and open interest steady, suggesting sophisticated investors are dominating.

Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/markets/ar ... -aluminium
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Re: Aluminum

Postby winston » Thu Mar 01, 2018 8:36 am

Why Chinese aluminium firms will find it tough to sell 15pc of output after US tariffs foil imports

US to counter “market distorting effects caused by injurious dumping and subsidisation of imports” with 106 per cent duty

Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/china-busi ... -sell-15pc
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Re: Aluminum

Postby winston » Thu Apr 19, 2018 8:37 am

Prices for aluminium raw material alumina surge after Rio Tinto force majeure

MELBOURNE: Prices of alumina, the raw material for making aluminium, have surged after Rio Tinto said it could not fulfil supply contracts because of U.S. sanctions on United Company Rusal, adding to a crunch rippling through the aluminium supply chain.

Rio said it was in the process of declaring force majeure on Friday for certain customer contracts that likely include alumina shipments from a refinery it operates with Rusal in Australia, bauxite shipments to a Rusal alumina refinery in Ireland, as well as alumina from that refinery to smelters in Europe.

Force majeure is a legal term describing situations when a contract cannot be fulfilled because of forces beyond a company’s control.

Alumina is a compound extracted from bauxite ore that is then smelted to form aluminium.

Comex alumina futures for delivery in May jumped 15 percent on Friday following the Rio curtailment.

The futures are up 22 percent since April 6 when the United States imposed the sanctions on Rusal as part of broader sanctions against Russian companies and owners, in response to allegations of Russian government interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

Prices for spot physical cargoes of alumina from Australia are $550 per tonne, said two traders that participate in the market on Wednesday, but that was likely to rise.

The Rio announcement and the Rusal sanctions add to global alumina supply constraints after Norsk Hydro’s Alunorte, operator of the world’s biggest alumina refinery, was ordered to shut half of its output amid an investigation into allegations the site contaminated local water supplies.

Alunorte and Rusal, the world’s second-biggest aluminium producer, account for 11 percent of global alumina production.

Internally, Rio Tinto’s Dunkirk smelter in France, which buys alumina from Rusal’s refinery in Ireland, has only three weeks of alumina stockpiles, Johan Vlietinck, an official with France’s CGT union at Aluminium Dunkerque told Reuters.

The company is searching for alternative supplies, he said.

The disruption to the supply chain and the higher alumina prices will spill over to semi-manufactured aluminium and ultimately hit manufacturers of products such as beer cans, cars and construction materials.

“This is going to be domino effect all over the place,” said Paul Adkins, Managing Director of consultancy AZ Aluminium in China.

“It’s just a total supply equation -- there’s not enough to go around. That’s going to have a knock on effect downstream.” It takes around 2 tonnes of alumina to make 1 tonne of aluminium.

Global aluminium prices rose to their highest since September 2011 on Wednesday, climbing to as much as $2,445 per tonne.

“Phones have been ringing off the hook with people looking for extra metal,” said a source at a smelter in Asia. ”They are looking for any extra tonnes, even just a few hundred.”

Source: Reuters

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... hGM7UWt.99
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Re: Aluminum

Postby winston » Thu Aug 09, 2018 9:56 pm

METALS-Aluminium gains as Alcoa strikes, Rusal sanctions stoke supply fears

By Peter Hobson

LONDON, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Aluminium prices rose strongly for a second day on Thursday, hitting their highest since late June after a strike at Alcoa alumina refineries in Australia and warnings of shutdowns by Rusal revived concerns of supply shortages.

Benchmark aluminium on the London Metal Exchange (LME) did not trade in official rings but was bid up 1.4 percent at $2,136 a tonne after rising 3.3 percent on Wednesday. It hit a 15-week low of $2,000.85 in late July on expectations that the United States would allow aluminium made by Rusal, the biggest producer outside China, to keep trading on global markets and trade disputes would weaken metals demand.

But with the more than 60-million tonne a year aluminium market expecting a deficit this year, investors are still wary of output disruptions, said Societe Generale analyst Robin Bhar.

"The fundamentals for aluminium are pretty tight," he said, predicting a global aluminium shortfall of half a million tonnes this year.

ALUMINIUM STOCKS: On-warrant stocks of aluminium available to the market in LME-registered warehouses have fallen to 832,775 tonnes, the lowest since 2007, supporting prices.

SPREAD: However, the discount for cash aluminium over the three-month contract this week grew to its biggest since September last year, signalling that metal is available.

TECHNICALS: Aluminium had hit its 50-day moving average at $2,136 and was near its 200-day moving average at $2,167. Convincing moves above these levels could trigger further buying.

ALCOA STRIKE: A union said on Wednesday Alcoa workers had walked out at plants in Western Australia with capacity equal to around 8 percent of the global supply of alumina, used to smelt aluminium. Alcoa said it did not expect any immediate impact on production.

RUSAL: Sources close to Russia's Rusal said the company was concerned about impending catastrophe if U.S. sanctions on it are not lifted, with some of its production halted as early as September.

CHINA/TRADE WAR: China's stock markets and yuan gained on Thursday, helping to lift industrial metals, even after China the day before said it was slapping additional tariffs of 25 percent on $16 billion worth of U.S. imports, the latest step in a worsening trade dispute. China is the world's biggest metals consumer.


Source: Reuters
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