Aluminum

Re: Aluminum

Postby behappyalways » Sat Aug 27, 2016 4:35 pm

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Re: Aluminum

Postby winston » Thu Oct 20, 2016 1:32 pm

China’s Aluminum Production at 15-Month High to Pressure Prices

World’s top maker cashes in on rally with new plants, restarts
‘The smelters are coming back in a rush,’ says AZ China

Source: Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: Aluminum

Postby winston » Fri Dec 16, 2016 9:12 pm

Get in on This Under-the-Radar Bull Market Today

By Matt Badiali

Aluminum entered a bull market in 2016.

The Dow Jones U.S. Aluminum Index – which tracks futures prices of aluminum – has climbed 74% from its January lows.

That's a huge move in such a short time for a vital commodity. But as I'll explain, it's not too late get in on the bull market today…

Back in February, news service Reuters surveyed dozens of commodity analysts from 32 major firms, including JPMorgan, Macquarie, and Oxford Economics. These professionals make a living by assessing supply and demand in a commodity, and then issuing price forecasts.

Of the half-dozen or so base metals on the list, only aluminum had a negative price forecast.

But the analysts were completely wrong. Missing the bull market in aluminum cost their employers millions of dollars… and it didn't need to happen. You see, we had signs that a turnaround in aluminum was coming.

It was a shift in the supply/demand dynamics. It's Economics 101.

The aluminum market was smothered in supply for years. This imbalance caused spot prices to fall in half from 2011 to late 2015. To make matters worse, China's stock market crashed in 2015, taking down the price of many base metals – including aluminum – with it. That sort of long-term downtrend causes analysts and investors alike to give up hope.

The London Metal Exchange ("LME") supplies physical materials to settle commodity contracts and sets the spot prices for many base metals. As you can see from the following chart, starting in early 2014, aluminum supplies started to fall…

Please Enable Images to See this

Today, LME warehouses contain about 2.1 million metric tons of aluminum. That's the lowest amount since December 2008. It's down 62% from the peak in 2013.

Eventually, supplies fell enough to stabilize aluminum prices. And in 2015, the bear market in aluminum finally ended. As President-elect Donald Trump's massive infrastructure spending begins to ramp up in the coming months, demand for aluminum should increase.

The best way to take advantage of this trend is through shares of the major producers in the sector. As you would expect, their profit margins have exploded higher (as have their share prices) as aluminum prices have risen. Take a look at how three of the industry's biggest producers have fared since aluminum prices bottomed in January…

Company Return
Century Aluminum (CENX) 182%
Reliance Steel & Aluminum (RS) 60%
Aluminum Corp of China (ACH) 48%

Despite these companies' gains this year, it's not too late to get involved. I expect the trend of falling supply and rising demand to continue. This trade looks like it has room to move much higher from here.

Consider buying any of the names above if you haven't already… and enjoy the ride.

Source: Growth Stock Wire

http://thecrux.com/get-in-on-this-under ... ket-today/
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Re: Aluminum

Postby winston » Thu Jan 26, 2017 6:55 pm

Aluminum is one of the largest components of in the aerospace, automobile, building and construction industries, and China’s aluminum smelter production was 20 times that of the U.S. in 2015.

Source: Bloomberg
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Re: Aluminum

Postby winston » Fri Feb 10, 2017 6:51 am

Norsk Hydro: China to boost aluminium output by up to 9 pc in 2017

China accounts for half of world’s aluminium production

Chinese demand meanwhile would grow by 4-6 per cent this year after rising 7.4 per cent in 2016, Norsk said.

Norsk said it expected China to have a 1.5 million tonne surplus of aluminium this year, offsetting a deficit of 1.5 million tonnes elsewhere in the world.


Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/commoditie ... -9-pc-2017
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Re: Aluminum

Postby winston » Fri Feb 17, 2017 7:55 am

Chart of the day: Aluminium shines

14 Feb 2017

A month ago, we pointed out that aluminium futures in Shanghai were on the way up again.

Surely enough, they rallied to the mean regression line and continued rising this week to break through it towards one standard deviation above the mean as forecast.

With a bit of luck, we should see a retest of November’s massive surge at 14,850 yuan per tonne as all aspects of the weekly Ichimoku cloud chart are decidedly bullish.

Note that this is very close to 2014’s high at the psychological level of 15,000 yuan, a level that is unlikely to give way on a first attempt and so should be approached with great caution.

Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/commoditie ... ium-shines
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Re: Aluminum

Postby winston » Thu Mar 02, 2017 2:05 pm

Aluminum Shines As China Proposes 30% Capacity Cut In Key Production Areas

By Shuli Ren

Earlier this week, to control pollution in northern China, Beijing released a new draft proposing to cut 30% aluminum capacity and 50% alumina capacity in “Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, and surrounding areas”.

This measure is not likely to be implemented till this November how.


According to Deutsche Bank, the aluminum industry could see excess demand this year and next; therefore, aluminum’s price can hover above $1,850 per ton. The bank raised its 2017 and 2018 price forecast by 7.5%.


Deutsche sees global demand for aluminum to accelerate from 4.4% in 2016 to 5.5% this year.

In China, demand will grow to 8% in 2017, versus 6.7% in 2015.


Deutsche estimates global supply to grow by 5.5% this year, slower than demand growth.

China’s supply will grow 6.5% this year, also slower than demand there.


Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... ion-areas/
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Re: Aluminum

Postby winston » Wed Apr 19, 2017 7:56 am

Chart of the day: Aluminium acting well

by Nicole Elliott

The price of front-month aluminium futures in Shanghai continues to trend neatly higher.

Not only is it moving at a sustainable roughly 45-degree angle across the page, but also holding within one standard deviation around the mean regression.

The weekly Ichimoku cloud is supportive, as are the moving averages, and the lagging line has been propped up by the upper standard deviation band.

Throughout March, the Fibonacci 38 per cent retracement support held the downside, setting off this week’s break through the mean regression line.

Expect some hesitation around this point for another week or two, but after that, we will be pencilling in a rally towards the upper one standard deviation line.

Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/commoditie ... cting-well
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Re: Aluminum

Postby winston » Wed Jun 14, 2017 8:23 am

Chart of the day: Aluminium outlook brightens

by Nicole Elliott

Price action in Shanghai aluminium futures has been quiet for most of this year, so not surprisingly both volume and historical volatility have dropped.

This might be a good thing, giving both producers and consumers a chance to benefit from stable conditions.

However, all aspects of this weekly chart continue to point to higher prices in the second half.

Moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud are clearly bullish, the angle of the latter mirroring that of the mean regression – and well within one standard deviation of it.

Both the lagging line and current prices have been propped up by the first Fibonacci retracement support and the blue line might benefit from rising candles over the next five weeks.

Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/commoditie ... -brightens
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Re: Aluminum

Postby winston » Wed Aug 09, 2017 6:28 am

Aluminium prices soar due to deeper cuts in capacity by China

The metal added 2.2 per cent to US$2,008 late on Tuesday in London, bringing gains for the year to about 19 per cent, the biggest rally among 22 raw materials on the Bloomberg Commodity Index.


A quarter of capacity in Shandong was unqualified last year, WoodMac said, citing government data.

This year’s figure is 3.2 million tonnes a year, or 3 million tonnes at current operating rates, and if all that gets shut, it would represent 9 per cent of the nation’s total production for 2017, it said.


Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/companies/ ... city-china
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