Oil 10 (Sep 16 - Nov 17)

Re: Oil 10 (Sep 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:07 pm

My September Oil Price Forecast Will Burn the "Short Artists"

By DR. KENT MOORS

The market in oil actually forms around the pricing floor and the support level established there – despite what the distortionists try to tell you.

A current WTI trading range of between $42 and $49 a barrel has emerged.

The unusual spread of over 14% is itself a testament to the rapid movements possible in either direction.


There are only two of any consequence (despite what some talking heads on TV want you to believe).

First, concerns remain about that most traditional of all market indicators – supply and demand.
Oil demand has been increasing worldwide.

Few producers will be looking at ramping up extractions until prices are consistently above $55 a barrel.

IEA and OPEC see it rebalancing in the first quarter of next year.

The second overarching factor is the OPEC-Russia commitment to curb production.

Veneuzeula's production looks to have declined over 30% from its levels from only a few years ago.


Source: Oil & Energy Investor

https://moneymorning.com/2017/08/24/my- ... t-artists/
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Re: Oil 10 (Sep 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Sat Aug 26, 2017 10:20 am

The Brent-WTI "Spread" is at Record Highs - Which Means Oil is About to Go Up

by Dr. Kent Moors

Brent is more sensitive to global supply and demand balance flows.

It picks up the signals faster than WTI, owing to its more frequent usage in trades worldwide and its greater vulnerability to geopolitical events.


Should Venezuela really collapse - as looks increasingly likely - some 1.5 million barrels of oil per day could be taken off the market.

Much of this lost supply could be made up for by Saudi Arabia, but it would cut the "spare capacity" that OPEC saves for emergencies down to record lows.

In the past, that's driven oil prices upwards very fast. Combine this with the record-high WTI-Brent spread, and oil could rise even faster.


Source: Oil & Energy Investor
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Re: Oil 10 (Sep 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Sat Aug 26, 2017 10:20 am

The Brent-WTI "Spread" is at Record Highs - Which Means Oil is About to Go Up

by Dr. Kent Moors

Brent is more sensitive to global supply and demand balance flows.

It picks up the signals faster than WTI, owing to its more frequent usage in trades worldwide and its greater vulnerability to geopolitical events.


Should Venezuela really collapse - as looks increasingly likely - some 1.5 million barrels of oil per day could be taken off the market.

Much of this lost supply could be made up for by Saudi Arabia, but it would cut the "spare capacity" that OPEC saves for emergencies down to record lows.

In the past, that's driven oil prices upwards very fast. Combine this with the record-high WTI-Brent spread, and oil could rise even faster.


Source: Oil & Energy Investor
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Re: Oil 10 (Sep 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Sat Aug 26, 2017 6:47 pm

Energy

by Charles Payne

Another sector adrift these days is crude oil, which fails at key resistance but holds at critical support points.

Inventories continue to come down quickly.

I continue to believe prices will come back eventually, and when they do there are several companies that stand to benefit greatly.

The key is making sure you have exposure when the rally begins.

Source: Investor Place
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Re: Oil 10 (Sep 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 28, 2017 9:01 pm

Brent futures LCOc1 gained as pipeline blockades in Libya slashed the OPEC state’s output by nearly 400,000 barrels per day.

Source: Reuters
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Re: Oil 10 (Sep 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Mon Aug 28, 2017 9:02 pm

Texas is home to 5.6 million barrels per day (bpd) of refining capacity, and Louisiana has 3.3 million bpd.

Over 2 million bpd of refining capacity was estimated to be offline as a result of the storm.

Source: Reuters
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Re: Oil 10 (Sep 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:24 am

4 Converging Factors That Could Cause an Oil Supply Shock

By Matt Winkler

First, we have Tropical Storm Harvey, soon to be Hurricane Harvey, about to make landfall in Texas, threatening one-third of U.S. oil refining capacity.

Second, we have a scheduled powwow of sorts between OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers on Sept. 22.

Third, we have Qatar, an OPEC member, restoring diplomatic ties with Iran, the archenemy of the ruling Saudi royal family and kingpin of OPEC.

Fourth, and perhaps most consequential, is proposed U.S. sanctions against Venezuela, particularly its government debt.


Source: Guru Focus

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2017/08 ... ply-shock/
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Re: Oil 10 (Sep 16 - Dec 17)

Postby behappyalways » Wed Aug 30, 2017 4:05 pm

Shale oil boom softens the energy blow from Harvey
http://money.cnn.com/2017/08/29/investi ... index.html
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Re: Oil 10 (Sep 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Wed Aug 30, 2017 5:03 pm

Cramer's charts suggest oil prices are about to fall off a cliff

"Mad Money" host Jim Cramer takes to technician Carley Garner's charts, which are sending bearish signals about the price of crude.

As the market approaches a historically bearish time of the year for oil, Garner helps Cramer consider the possible outcomes.

Cramer also examines copper to see if oil's the only big commodity in danger of decline.

by Elizabeth Gurdus

Peaked in January, oil prices have been sliding, making a series of lower highs.


"As of the latest report, large speculators [were], once again, awful. They had a net long position of 445,000 futures contracts. Now, that is shy of the 500,000-plus reading we had earlier this year — also at elevated levels, though — but Garner says it still points to an extremely one-sided trade," Cramer said.

"In short, if hedge fund managers were going to bet on oil, they've probably done it already, which means there's little chance of fresh money coming in to push up the price of crude."

Traders can also make matters worse by selling their future positions and driving down the price of oil.


Over the last 15 years, oil prices typically plunged from August to December amid waves of selling.


Garner said oil's floor of support ranges from $40.90 to $42. Because oil prices have been making lower lows in recent months, Garner is concerned that an overly dramatic dip could send crude down as low as $35.50.


Source: CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/29/cramers ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: Oil 10 (Sep 16 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Fri Sep 01, 2017 8:10 am

[b]A North Korea crisis would threaten more than a third of the oil moving on the oceans[/b]

Military action around North Korea could halt the flow of crude oil imports to South Korea, Japan and China, which together account for 34 percent of seaborne oil trade globally, according to energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie

Global oil markets would be "severely affected" in the event of a regional conflict that affects South Korea, Japan and China, the consultancy said

But on the other hand, "regional stockpiling and increased logistics costs could equally lead to a short-term price premium"

Source: CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/31/a-north ... CKW,YWM0,1
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