Oil 10 (Sep 16 - Nov 17)

Oil 10 (Sep 16 - Nov 17)

Postby winston » Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:20 am

Mystery of Oil Held on Chinese Islands Puzzles Crude Markets

Why Is China Stockpiling Oil?

Citigroup's Ed Morse Sees $65 Oil by End of 2017
Analyst opinion divided over level of China strategic reserves
Purchases for SPR have lifted crude imports, helping prices

Record purchases this year by the world’s biggest energy consumer have helped oil prices recover from the worst crash in a generation. What the country plans to do next could determine where they go from here.


China outlined in 2009 its plans to build reserves equivalent to 100 days of net imports.


JPMorgan. The bank estimates the country built up a total of about 400 million barrels by mid-2016 out of a targeted 511 million barrels.


Another 150 million barrels of commercial storage space is coming online by the end of next year that can be filled, she said.


In the U.S., supplies in the strategic reserve were at 695 million as of Aug. 26, enough to support 149 days of import protection, according to data from the Energy Department.


China plans to build emergency reserves equivalent to 100 days of net imports by 2020, the nation’s top refiner said in 2009, citing a plan approved by the State Council.

It pushed back completion of the stockpile to beyond the 2020 deadline, according to a Five Year Plan released in March 2016.


Source: Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... 083116_BIZ
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Re: Oil 09 (Feb 16 - Dec 16)

Postby behappyalways » Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:00 pm

Oil (Goldman Sachs ETN) is bearish again after this turn on resistance in an 18 month bearish channel.
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Re: Oil 09 (Feb 16 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:07 am

The Two Best Oil Signals Now Agree: Oil is About to Move Up

by DR. KENT MOORS

Contango

Contango simply means that oil for immediate delivery trades at a discount to oil to be delivered in the future. In other words, as you go further along the 12-month strip, oil for delivery on consecutive months gets more expensive.

This discount for oil for immediate delivery is typically a sign of a supply glut, because when oil storage fills up, putting more oil in storage gets more and more expensive. That makes storing oil for delivery in the future more expensive than delivering it now, creating the contango discount.

Straightforwardly, oil prices for future delivery being higher than for immediate delivery also means that the market expects oil prices – if left to their own devices – will rise.


Bacwardation

Bacwardation, on the other hand, is the name for oil for immediate delivery trading at a premium to oil for delivery in the future.

This is typically a sign of shortage fears – the market is so worried about being able to get oil today, it’s willing to pay a premium over oil for delivery tomorrow.

The implication is that oil prices will go down in the future. on the other hand, is the name for oil for immediate delivery trading at a premium to oil for delivery in the future.

The implication is that oil prices will go down in the future.


The contango of the 12-month NYMEX Strip is now constricting, with the discount for immediate delivery over future deliveries diminishing.

At the same time, the price for each month is rising. That means the all-important oil price floor is rising as well.


The NYMEX Strip tells us what to expect from US prices. The Brent spread, on the other hand, is a key indicator of what to expect internationally, as Brent is used more often than WTI as the benchmark against which global oil deals are made.

The Brent spread is also in contango, but the difference between the near-month and six-month out prices is contracting.

This, again, tells us higher prices are coming.


There are two important conclusions to draw from these two signals. First, both of these developments indicate that excess supply in the market is declining.

In addition to supporting a floor for WTI and Brent, it also means that the ephemeral “balance,” the essential component in strengthening oil prices, is taking shape.


Second, speculators will continue to search for ways of playing another spread, then between WTI and Brent. With the exception of only a few trading sessions, that spread has produced a higher price for Brent than WTI in each daily trading session since mid-August of 2010.

That spread, on the other hand, is also diminishing. And with both the NYMEX Strip (WTI) and the six month spread (Brent) pointing to continuing contango along the curve, another interesting trading conclusion follows.

It’s impossible to play the spread without “buying into” the contango. That is, any speculator trying to get a return from the discount on oil for immediate delivery, will in effect increase the demand for near-month oil futures.

That will only add to the pressure that is increasing prices.


Expect to see oil in the mid $50s by the end of this year, rising to the low $60s a barrel in the first quarter of 2017.


Source: Oil & Energy Investor

http://oilandenergyinvestor.com/2016/09 ... 3#deeplink
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Re: Oil 09 (Feb 16 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Sun Sep 04, 2016 9:49 pm

Oil: 44.44, +1.28.

After a harsh Wednesday and Thursday broke oil below the 50 day MA's.

Rebounded Friday but nothing major.

Source: Investment House
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Re: Oil 09 (Feb 16 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Wed Sep 07, 2016 8:42 pm

These Two Signals Are Pushing My Crude Price Forecast Upward

By DR. KENT MOORS

Source: Oil & Energy Investor

http://moneymorning.com/2016/09/07/thes ... st-upward/
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Re: Oil 09 (Feb 16 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Fri Sep 09, 2016 7:31 am

These Two New “Oil Records” Prove that Mid-$50s Oil is Almost Here

by DR. KENT MOORS

This morning, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced a dramatic drawdown from U.S. oil stockpiles (the real “wet” stuff) of more than 14 million barrels last week.

That was more than 12 times what “experts” expected, and the largest drawdown in a single week seen in more than 17 years.


Source: Oil & Energy Investor

http://oilandenergyinvestor.com/2016/09 ... most-here/
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Re: Oil 09 (Feb 16 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Fri Sep 09, 2016 8:03 am

7 Energy Stocks You Can Actually Trust in Retirement

Retirement investors should be focusing on these steady energy stocks ... because they're among the very few options you can actually depend on

By Aaron Levitt

Source: Investor Place

http://investorplace.com/2016/09/7-ener ... 9Hz5ph96M8
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Re: Oil 09 (Feb 16 - Dec 16)

Postby behappyalways » Fri Sep 09, 2016 4:24 pm

Oil soars as glut shrinks by most since '99
http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/08/investi ... index.html
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Re: Oil 09 (Feb 16 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Sat Sep 10, 2016 3:33 pm

Oil Set For A Drop After Inventory Data Excitement

Oil prices surged on Thursday following news from the EIA that showed a colossal drawdown in crude oil stocks.

Inventories plunged by 14.5 million barrels for the week ending on September 2, the largest drawdown for this time of year on record. However, before the oil bulls get too excited, it is important to note that the huge drawdown could be a one-off, owing to the hurricane that disrupted shipments in the Gulf of Mexico. Imports were down sharply, leading to a larger-than-usual draw on stocks.

"This is an aberrant report of the first order," John Kilduff of Again Capital, told CNBC. Others agree: "I suspect over the next few weeks we're going to see inventories recover to a certain extent, as the imports catch up," said Andrew Lipow of Lipow Oil Associates.

"There's still plenty of oil out there. What we're seeing is the result of storm impacts on vessel shipping at the same time we still see members of OPEC to increase their oil production."

Source: Oil Price Intelligence
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Re: Oil 09 (Feb 16 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Sun Sep 11, 2016 9:29 pm

Oil: 45.99, -1.74.

Big recovery Tuesday through Thursday.

Friday oil tested that move, coming back to close just over the 50 day SMA.

Source: Investment House
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