Palladium

Re: Palladium

Postby winston » Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:43 pm

Palladium Drops 6.4%; Where Will Prices Head In 2017?

By Johanna Bennett

We think the call for more US auto production – even if successful – will ultimately make no difference to global PGM consumption, as increased vehicle production in the US would likely only mean fewer vehicles produced in another country.

After such a steep rally we may see a little pullback but we remain bullish.


Source: Barron's

http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2 ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: Palladium

Postby winston » Thu Jan 26, 2017 6:29 pm

What's Driving Palladium ETF Rally?

by Lopamudra Bhattacharya

Palladium is mostly used in the automotive industry for manufacturing catalytic converters to clean exhaust emissions.

Last year, U.S. new car and truck sales hit record levels. Strong consumer confidence and relatively low fuel prices lifted the industry's outlook.

Meanwhile, President-elect Donald Trump plans to introduce a burst of stimulus with tax cuts and an infrastructure spending package.

Speculation is rife that business investments will a get a new lifeline now. This could benefit automakers.

In addition, tax cuts and higher government spending in the major car markets of China are also expected to boost auto sales (read: Is It Finally Time for China ETFs?).

Moreover, supply shortages are expected to continue this year. The palladium market is expected to post a deficit of 651,000 troy ounces this year and another shortfall in 2017. This is primarily due to rising autocatalyst demand.

In a nutshell, the global supply outlook appears fragile at the current level, making the metal an intriguing option for investors. Below we have highlighted the only pure-play on the metal – PALL – in detail (see all Precious Metals ETFs).


ETF Securities Physical Palladium Shares or PALL

The ETF holds the metal in the form of bullion, or ingots. The metal is safely stored in London and Zürich on behalf of the custodian, JP Morgan Chase Bank.

Investing through PALL in palladium represents a cost-effective and suitable mode for investors. The transaction costs for buying and selling shares will be much lower than purchasing, storing and insuring physical palladium for most investors.

This ETF is designed to track the spot price of Palladium bullion and has amassed about $178.2 million in assets. The expense ratio of 60 basis points appears reasonable in the precious metals ETF space. The fund trades in paltry volumes of less than 38,000 shares on average daily basis.



Source: Zacks

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/whats-dri ... 07436.html
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Re: Palladium

Postby winston » Thu Jan 26, 2017 6:33 pm

Dec 23, 2016

Where Will Palladium Prices Go In 2017?

By Teresa Rivas

Palladium has outperformed all other precious metals this year and tends to trade independent of the rest of the precious metals complex.

It is impacted more by industrial demand and less by monetary policies and risk sentiment.

A sharply widening deficit according to our supply/demand model is likely to propel palladium higher as scope for mine output remains limited and industrial and auto demand firm.

A cessation in the heavy ETF selling of 2015 and 2016 will afford palladium the opportunity to rally.

Palladium may also benefit from any wider investor return to safe-haven assets in 2017.


Source: Barron's

http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2 ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: Palladium

Postby winston » Wed Apr 05, 2017 7:53 am

TOL:-

As US Auto Sales are weak, I will discontinue monitoring Palladium as the Auto Industry consumes 80% of supply.

The following are my latest notes and I'm filing them here for future reference:-

6. Palladium (Jun 17) - Lower; US$799 from US$809 from US$777
a. Support: US$600; US$500; US$200; Resistance: US$800; US$900;
b. Catalytic Converters, Electronics, Dentistry, Medicine, Hydrogen Purification, Chemicals, Groundwater Treatment, Jewelry and Fuel Cells
c. Auto industry consumes 80% of supply
d. Demand by Auto industry doubled in past 10 years
e. Growth Demand: 3% a year for next 4 years
f. Russia and South Africa produced 3/4 of the world's mined palladium supply.
g. Heading toward its 8th annual supply deficit in 2017; 650,000 ounces in 2016
h. Vehicle: PALL (not vested)
i. US Auto Sales weak
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Re: Palladium

Postby winston » Sat Jun 10, 2017 8:24 am

This ultra-rare precious metal is the top commodity this year…

In the main commodity markets, nothing is doing better than palladium this year.

The metal is up 30%, beating 33 other raw materials, including lean hogs and aluminum, tracked by Bloomberg.

On Friday, prices surged as much as 7.9% to a 16-year high of $928.36 an ounce as some traders were said to scramble to get hold of physical supplies.

Palladium, which is mainly used to curb harmful emissions from gasoline vehicles, has rallied on expectations that supply will lag demand for a sixth straight year.

It’s now almost as expensive as platinum for the first time since 2001, helped by Volkswagen AG’s emissions scandal two years ago that has prompted consumers to switch from diesel to gasoline cars.

“The fundamentals in palladium are among the best in all the commodities,” said Rene Hochreiter, an analyst at Noah Capital Markets Pty Ltd. in Johannesburg. “It could easily overtake platinum in the near-term. It feels as if the rally has got legs.”

Here are four other charts on palladium’s advance:


Supply Deficit

Mine production hasn’t been able to keep up with usage since 2012, partly because of rising car sales and stricter emissions limits. While stockpiled metal probably helped feed consumer demand in recent years, that source of supply may now be running out, according to Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics Ltd.


Rush to Buy

The futures market is signaling traders are rushing to buy metal. Palladium for June delivery in New York has become a lot more expensive than the March 2018 contract in recent weeks. That’s indicating there may be concerns about near-term supplies.

“It appears that there is a serious shortage of readily available physical bars for spot settlement,” said Brad Yates, head of trading for U.S. gold refiner Elemetal.


Parity to Platinum

Palladium’s rally means it’s almost the same price as sister metal platinum, which is favored in catalytic converters in diesel vehicles. But because the metals can be used interchangeably, analysts have said that some industrial consumers may consider switching from palladium into platinum.


Not Everyone’s So Bullish

But exchange-traded fund investors aren’t as keen. Palladium assets are down about 50% from a peak in 2014, data compiled by Bloomberg show. While holdings have fallen this year, they’ve increased in gold, silver and platinum ETFs.


Source: Bloomberg

http://thecrux.com/this-ultra-rare-prec ... s-soaring/
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Re: Palladium

Postby winston » Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:04 pm

The following are my notes for future reference:-

Palladium - Flat; US$919 from US$919 from US$978
a. Support: US$600; US$500; US$200; Resistance: US$900;
b. Catalytic Converters, Electronics, Dentistry, Medicine, Hydrogen Purification, Chemicals, Groundwater Treatment, Jewelry and Fuel Cells
c. Auto industry consumes 80% of supply
d. Demand by Auto industry doubled in past 10 years
e. Growth Demand: 3% a year for next 4 years
f. Russia and South Africa produced 3/4 of the world's mined palladium supply.
g. Heading toward its 8th annual supply deficit in 2017; 650,000 ounces in 2016
h. Vehicle: PALL; SPPP (Physical Platinum & Palladium)
i. US Auto Sales weak
j. Demand from vehicles destroyed by Hurricanes
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Re: Palladium

Postby winston » Tue Oct 17, 2017 6:49 am

Palladium hits highest since 2001

Palladium jumped to its highest since February 2001 at $1,010.50 an ounce, before paring gains to $1,000.90, up 1.3 percent.

Some investors had been wary when the metal, mostly used for auto catalysts to clean pollution from exhaust fumes, broke above $1,000 on Sept. 6, due to concern about weak global auto sales.

But those worries seem to have been swept aside after the world's biggest auto market China last week reported sales growth of 5.7 percent in September.

"I have the impression that some of the sceptics have given up on the weaker car market story after China reported quite a solid third quarter," Menke said.

UBS strategist Joni Teves said palladium's gains were justified by supply/demand fundamentals, which include a market deficit of 830,000 ounces this year.

"This comes after persistent shortfalls over the past five years, which has clearly drawn down considerably on above-ground inventories," she said in a note.

Source: Reuters

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-eas ... nance.html
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Re: Palladium

Postby winston » Mon Nov 19, 2018 2:24 pm

China's Fight Against Smog Makes Palladium 2018's Best Metal

by Marvin G. Perez

(Bloomberg) -- Palladium prices are shattering record highs, and investors are betting that tight supplies mean that the bull run is just getting started.

The metal, used in pollution-control devices, has jumped more than 9 percent in New York this year, the best performance among major metals.

Demand is roaring thanks to China, which is on a mission to reduce smog. Tougher pollution standards mean carmakers are using more in catalytic converters.

Global production is falling short of the robust demand, and market forecasters including Citigroup Inc. are projecting further price gains ahead.

Hedge funds are also wagering on an extended rally, holding the biggest positive bet on the metal since early March.

“We’ve been dealing with supply deficits going on eight years, and that’s expected to continue. Supply’s certainly been an issue on the mining front as well as the draw-down of existing stockpiles.”

Palladium is a thinly traded market. Much like sister-metal platinum, its production is extremely concentrated, with Russia and South Africa collectively producing about three quarters of the world’s mined supplies.

Auto Demand

Almost 70 percent of palladium demand comes from the auto industry, according to researcher CPM Group. Car sales have stayed relatively strong in most places, helping to insulate prices from the hand-wringing over global growth that’s dragged down many industrial commodities.

Supplies are so constrained that users have turned to exchange-trade products to borrow the material they need. That’s pushed palladium holdings in ETFs to the lowest since 2009 as manufacturers seek supplies above ground, said Gold.

Hedge funds are adding to their bullish outlook. In the week ended Nov. 13, money managers increased their net-long position, the difference between bets on a price increase and wagers on a decline, for a second straight week to 12,837 futures and options, according to data from the Commodity Futures and Trading Commission published Friday. That’s the most since March 6.

Palladium futures jumped 5.2 percent in New York last week. The price -- which hit $1,168.30 an ounce in Friday’s trade, the highest so far -- was at $1,161.90 on Monday.

Substitution Threat

One threat to demand: substitution. Historically, palladium has usually been cheaper than platinum, and therefore was used as a popular alternative since the two metals share many of the same chemical properties.

But the recent rally has reversed the price relationship, and now palladium suffers the threat of substitution from platinum.

Still, manufacturers need 18 to 24 months for such changes, so that probably won’t be an issue in the immediate future, Suki Cooper, a precious metal analyst at Standard Chartered Bank in New York, said by telephone.

In terms of substitution, “many manufacturers have indicated that it’s not something that can be switched easily or quickly, even though it is economically possible,” she said. “The longer-term outlook remains positive and price risks are skewed to the upside.”

Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-ap ... 00927.html
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Re: Palladium

Postby winston » Sat Dec 22, 2018 10:09 am

Why Palladium's Suddenly an Especially Precious Metal

About 80 percent of palladium ends up in the exhaust systems in cars, where it helps turn toxic pollutants into less-harmful carbon dioxide and water vapor.

It is also used in electronics, dentistry and jewelry. The metal is mined primarily in Russia and South Africa, and mostly extracted as a secondary product from operations focused on other metals, such as platinum or nickel.

In the decade following 1998, platinum soared more than 500 percent as a shortage caught the attention of speculative buyers. Rhodium rallied more than 4,000 percent over a similar period before carmakers found ways to use less. Palladium itself jumped ninefold from its lows in 1996 to a peak in 2001 as users worried Russian sales would slow.




Source: Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -quicktake
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Re: Palladium

Postby winston » Sat Dec 22, 2018 10:09 am

Why Palladium's Suddenly an Especially Precious Metal

About 80 percent of palladium ends up in the exhaust systems in cars, where it helps turn toxic pollutants into less-harmful carbon dioxide and water vapor.

It is also used in electronics, dentistry and jewelry. The metal is mined primarily in Russia and South Africa, and mostly extracted as a secondary product from operations focused on other metals, such as platinum or nickel.

In the decade following 1998, platinum soared more than 500 percent as a shortage caught the attention of speculative buyers. Rhodium rallied more than 4,000 percent over a similar period before carmakers found ways to use less. Palladium itself jumped ninefold from its lows in 1996 to a peak in 2001 as users worried Russian sales would slow.




Source: Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -quicktake
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