Commodities - General News 04 (May 18 - Dec 25)

Re: Commodities - General News 03 (Jul 14 - Dec 18)

Postby behappyalways » Fri Oct 19, 2018 5:06 am

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Re: Commodities - General News 03 (Jul 14 - Dec 18)

Postby behappyalways » Sat Dec 01, 2018 7:31 pm

Commodities drop looks secular, not cyclical: Gary Shilling
https://www.afr.com/opinion/commodities ... 130-h18lcl
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Re: Commodities - General News 03 (Jul 14 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:15 pm

Goldman Sachs is bullish on commodities for four reasons

by Holly Ellyatt

Oil markets got a welcome boost when OPEC and its friends decided to cut supply again in December, another push is coming from news of Chinese economic stimulus that could propel demand.

The investment bank is bullish on commodities -oil and gold - for several reasons, ranging from the Federal Reserve signalling it will hike rates less aggressively-than-expected and a weakening dollar.

Expectations for a decreased oil supply, potential Chinese stimulus and political uncertainty are buoying hopes for gains in the commodities sector, according to Goldman Sachs.

Jeff Curries, global head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC on Wednesday that the bank is bullish on commodities oil and gold for several reasons, ranging from the Federal Reserve signalling it will hike rates less aggressively than expected and a weakening dollar.

"We're bullish on commodities," Goldman's Currie told CNBC's Joumanna Bercetche. "One, because you don't have the rising (interest) rates anymore and in fact, they've come off and they're on pause.

Two, the dollar's really strong and likely to weaken from here as opposed to strengthen like it did last year." A weaker dollar makes oil more attractive as oil is denominated in dollars.

Currie added that a predicted rise in Chinese demand and falling global oil supply also added to the bullish outlook for oil.

"China has given notice that it's stimulating (its economy) and then you have OPEC ready to cut production," he said, speaking to CNBC at Goldman's global strategy conference in London.

China's central bank injected a net 560 billion yuan ($83 billion) into the banking system on Wednesday, the highest ever recorded for a single day, in a sign that it's willing to inject liquidity into a slowing economy. Chinese economic growth is driving higher oil demand.

U.S. sanctions on Iran instigated in November failed to have as deep an impact on supply as forecast as a handful of waivers were granted to oil consuming countries , taking away a need for oil kingpins Saudi Arabia and Russia to produce more to fulfil a potential shortfall. Currie said an excess of oil built up ahead of the production cut would clear in early 2019.

"They're cutting. They had a huge increase in production in September, October and November in anticipation to the Iranian sanctions and we got a lot more waivers than expected and they're now bringing that supply off the market. It did leave the market with an extra 140 million barrels that need to be eaten through during the first half of the year. We think that's likely to happen," he said.

He said a "terrible trio" of factors had affected oil's performance in mid-2018. "Rising rates, rising dollar and rising oil. You put those three together and they either always lead to a recession or to a mid-cycle pause. Now we look at it and go 'hey, the Fed's on pause', we're in a mid-cycle pause and that's usually a buy signal for commodities."

Source: CNBC

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman- ... 00819.html
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Re: Commodities - General News 03 (Jul 14 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:14 pm

This is the Kind of Setup Contrarian Investors Dream About

by Dr. Steve Sjuggerud

Goldman has given up on commodities. And it feels like nearly every other investor has, too.


Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2019/03/16/ ... eam-about/
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Re: Commodities - General News 03 (Jul 14 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:55 am

Platts: 6 Commodity Charts To Watch This Week

by Tyler Durden

Source: S&P Platts' "The Barrel" blog

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-09- ... watch-week
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Re: Commodities - General News 03 (Jul 14 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Tue Jan 07, 2020 8:46 am

Battery Metals

Today's high-tech batteries require huge amounts of metals like lithium, cobalt, copper, nickel, graphite, and vanadium.

The average battery-powered electric vehicle requires 183 pounds of copper. That's about four times the amount of copper the average internal combustion auto contains.

A typical EV also requires about 120 pounds of graphite, along with significant quantities of nickel, cobalt, and lithium.

The average solar project requires about five times as much copper per megawatt of capacity as a conventional fossil fuel plant.

Offshore wind farms demand about 10 times as much. Meanwhile, the leading energy storage technologies also require massive quantities of "battery metals."

So the boom in EVs, renewables, and energy storage will create major "echo booms" in several metal markets.

Source: Investor Place
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Re: Commodities - General News 03 (Jul 14 - Dec 18)

Postby winston » Thu Jan 23, 2020 8:36 am

Deadly Wuhan virus could trigger commodities sell-off

The spread of the new coronavirus in China, which has killed nine people and advanced as far as the United States, could threaten demand for commodities from jet fuel to steel if China's economic activity slows, Bloomberg reports.

While the extent of the outbreak won’t be known for some time, it’s spooking investors who recall the sharp drops in raw materials that followed the SARS crisis of 2003.

Any dent to China’s growth could broadly hurt prices across agriculture, materials and energy, just as the economy is showing signs of stabilizing.

The timing of the virus’s escalation, ahead of peak travel and the halt to financial markets during the Lunar New Year, is pushing traders to offload risk and pressuring raw materials prices along with other assets.

And then there are specific concerns around individual commodities.

Fears over travel or government restrictions on transport, for instance, would reduce demand for items like jet fuel, or rubber for tires. Steel usage might falter if workers can’t make it back to construction sites after the Lunar holiday.

On a global basis, if the outbreak were to reach SARS-like proportions, it could sap 260,000 barrels a day of oil demand from the market this year, both indirectly through slower economic growth and directly as fear of airline travel reduces jet fuel use, Goldman Sachs analysts including Damien Courvalin said in a note. That could hit oil prices by US$3 a barrel, with a larger drop possible in the early days of the disease.

“The initial uncertainty on the potential scope of the epidemic could lead to a larger price sell-off than fundamentals suggest,” Courvalin wrote.

“Such a move could in fact be exacerbated by both the current large net-long speculative positions in oil and the monitoring challenges created by the Chinese New Year.”

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking ... s-sell-off
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Re: Commodities - General News 03 (Jul 14 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:57 pm

World food security at risk as exporters curb sales, importers buy more
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... 1D0YV?il=0
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Re: Commodities - General News 03 (Jul 14 - Dec 20)

Postby behappyalways » Tue May 12, 2020 4:01 pm

2020.05.10【文茜世界周報】疫情致供過於求 美酪農被迫倒掉大量牛奶
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dz9gOnmHwCY
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Re: Commodities - General News 03 (Jul 14 - Dec 20)

Postby winston » Sat Jun 20, 2020 1:28 pm

Jim Rogers: Commodities are probably the cheapest asset class around right now

Jim Rogers: Commodities are probably the cheapest asset class around right now, because they've been going down for a while.

Now that doesn't mean it's the bottom, and doesn't mean you should buy them.

Sugar's down 80% from its all-time high.

Farmland in some countries, it's very cheap, because it's been such a disaster for so long.

If you go to Japan, they'll give you farmland because nobody wants to be a farmer. The problem is who's going to farm it, you know? And that's why it's so cheap...

The average age of a farmer in Japan is 66. They give you a farm if you show up. But then unless you know how to farm, you're going to be in trouble, like everybody else. "I got this cheap farm. What am I going to do with it?"

Source: American Consequences
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