Copper 02 (Nov 12 - Dec 25)

Re: Copper 02 (Nov 12 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Wed Aug 30, 2017 5:05 pm

End of the rally?

The metal has been climbing thanks to a weakening dollar and Chinese demand, but Garner thinks copper may be nearing the end of its rally.

"When you check out both the weekly and the daily charts for copper, you see a bunch of indicators that suggest it's already way overbought," Cramer said.

He added that the Relative Strength index, which tracks changes in price movements, is running high on both charts, which typically means a correction is on the horizon.

"Here's the bottom line: The charts, as interpreted by our go-to commodities person, Carley Garner, suggest that crude oil could soon fall off a cliff while copper might be running out of momentum," Cramer said.

"Neither of these is what I'd call a good sign. You know what? I'm on board with both calls."

Source: CNBC

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/29/cramers ... yptr=yahoo
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Re: Copper 02 (Nov 12 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Tue Sep 05, 2017 8:17 pm

Dr. Copper's PhD in Question as Rally Starts Looking Stretched

By Cormac Mullen

Role as market barometer in doubt as trader positions grow
A shift in speculation could trigger volatility: AXA’s Tinker

The orange metal has climbed about 26 percent since early May amid robust Chinese demand and as some of the biggest mines suffered production interruptions.


Demand conditions in China are slowing and will continue to slow, according to Barclays Plc analyst Dane Davis.

The market is over-reacting to short-term conditions and ignoring several warnings signs, he said.


Source: Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... gn=markets
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Re: Copper 02 (Nov 12 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:09 am

Chart of the day: Shanghai copper catches up

by Nicole Elliott

The massive pennant consolidation in Shanghai’s copper futures that has dominated since December has at last come good.

Prices have rallied to their highest in four years, comfortably meeting our first measured target at 51,420 yuan (US$7,869) per tonne and almost reaching the next one at 53,645 yuan.

Because bullish momentum has increased and now the MACD is also positive, we feel that further gains are likely this month, helped by supportive moving averages and a gently rising, large Ichimoku cloud.

Our third measured target at 57,125 yuan looks achievable, though rallies above the psychological 60,000-yuan level may be difficult to maintain.

Note that this is a global phenomenon, with copper futures on New York’s Commodities Exchange also trading at multi-year highs.

Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/commoditie ... er-catches
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Re: Copper 02 (Nov 12 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:57 pm

A BULLISH SIGN FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

Today, we check in on one of the most reliable indicators of economic health...

We're talking about copper. The industrial metal is found in everything from electrical wires and water pipes to radiators and braking systems.

The average home contains around 400 pounds of copper, while the average car contains around 50 pounds of it.

As such, copper has earned the nickname "Dr. Copper" because its price action gives us insight into the health of the global economy.

Rising copper prices suggest strong copper demand (and a growing global economy), while falling prices indicate an economic slowdown.

As you can see in the chart below, copper prices are on a roll. They've risen from around $2.10 per pound a year ago to more than $3.10 a pound today – almost a 50% move, and a chip shot away from a new three-year high.

Right now, Dr. Copper says the global economy is in good shape...

Source: Daily Wealth
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Re: Copper 02 (Nov 12 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:50 pm

Hurricanes Harvey and Irma

Current estimates predict that the United States will spend billions of dollars recovering from Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.

When these industrious people rebuild, they will need building materials – and lots of them.

And when I think of large-scale residential projects, my mind immediately turns to the industrious “red metal.”

Copper is one of the most versatile materials on earth.

It is widely used in electronics and wiring because it’s an incredible electrical conductor.

It can be used in water piping because it easy to work with, recyclable, and exceptionally reliable.

It can be used in heating and cooling systems and household appliances because it’s such a good conductor of heat.

And that means this red metal doesn’t just show up in our homes – but also in office buildings and in our cars and trucks.

Mounds of copper will be needed during the recovery efforts over the coming months.

And as that demand for copper grows, it’s going to funnel massive amounts of wealth into the companies that mine it.

Source: 10 Minute Millionaire
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Re: Copper 02 (Nov 12 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Sun Sep 24, 2017 4:51 am

Which Way Is Copper Going? Examining Contrary Opinions

by Eric Fry

At the moment, the copper bears are citing three main reasons for their outlook...
1. The Commitment of Traders report on copper from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is signaling a "toppy market."
2. Copper inventories are rising sharply.
3. Copper demand is waning.


1. COT Report. I doubt it will knock the copper price below about $2.75, which is where it was trading two months ago.


2. The Shanghai Futures Exchange holds about the same amount of copper inventories as the COMEX, while the London Metal Exchange (LME) holds nearly twice as much.

So to get a feel for what's happening globally in the copper market, it's helpful to track the combined inventories of the COMEX, Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME.

As the chart below shows, the current combined inventories of these three commodity exchanges have barely budged during the last few months.


3. Copper demand is not waning. Instead, it has been ramping higher for months - both from traditional sources, like construction and electricity infrastructure, and from nontraditional sources, like electric vehicles (EVs), charging stations, and renewable power installations.


Source: The Oxford Club
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Re: Copper 02 (Nov 12 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Fri Oct 20, 2017 8:18 am

Chart of the day: Coiled up with copper

Many years ago, there was a Japanese trader known as “Mr Copper” with an aggressive stance on the metal and allegedly controlling 5 per cent of the market.

In 1996, his firm eventually admitted to losses of 285 billion yen (US$2.5 billion at today’s prices) and he went to prison.

Today, cornering the market would be far more difficult with the emergence of Chinese exchanges and a wider range of producers.

Even so, as we predicted last month, prices have risen strongly and volumes, both in Shanghai and New York, are close to their highest levels on record.

Prices are roughly at their 12-year average and on track to meet our third measured target at 57,125 yuan (US$8,625) per tonne.

Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/markets/ar ... led-copper
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Re: Copper 02 (Nov 12 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Wed Oct 25, 2017 7:53 am

Goldman lifts copper price forecast to US$7,050, with China expected to drive half of global demand over next five years

Rising electric vehicle sales to play significant part, as pure battery-powered cars use about four times the amount of copper than conventional internal combustion engines

“We expect China copper demand to increase 3.1 per cent in 2017 and 1.8 per cent per year on average from 2017 to 2022”.


Overall, Goldman projects world copper demand to rise 2.5 per cent in 2017 and 1.8 per cent per year on average from 2017 to 2022.


That demand growth, combined with a weaker US dollar, will translate into around a 10 per cent increase in copper prices from 2017 to 2018.


Compared to their previous forecast, the analysts now expect slightly lower growth in mine supply in 2018, at 3.5 per cent.


Source: SCMP

http://www.scmp.com/business/commoditie ... cted-drive
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Re: Copper 02 (Nov 12 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:58 pm

Copper Traders Are Making High-Flying Bets About the Future of the Metal

by Mark Burton

Copper hasn’t traded at those levels since 2011, the peak of a commodities boom mainly fueled by a roaring economy in China, the biggest user.


Chilean miner Codelco said prices could test record highs above $10,000 a ton as the supply-demand balance shifts to “substantial” deficits from 2018.


Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/copper-t ... 00155.html
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Re: Copper 02 (Nov 12 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Wed Nov 29, 2017 11:22 pm

Copper slides on worries over Chinese demand

China's government warned last week of a possible bubble in stock markets and initiated measures to reduce financial market risks, resulting in "interest rates in China rising further, which also appears to be seen as a warning signal of tighter liquidity”.


Source: Seeking Alpha

https://www.investing.com/news/commodit ... and-922504
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