Copper 02 (Nov 12 - Dec 25)

[winston]

What “Dr. Copper” could be saying about the future of the global economy

by Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Source: Global Economic Trend Analysis

http://thecrux.com/what-dr-copper-could ... onomy-now/

[winston]

This chart could be GREAT news for resource investors

Source: Tom McClellan’s Chart in Focus

http://thecrux.com/not-just-the-dollar- ... 37gMXBU%3D

[winston]

HERE'S WHERE TO GET WORRIED

Make sure to put copper on your watch list... it will let you know if things are getting bad.

Regular readers know we monitor copper to get a read on the global economy. The metal is a vital ingredient in everything around you... like home wiring, plumbing, cars, electronics, and refrigerators. This "in everything" quality makes copper rise and fall with economic activity.

Right now, we're seeing ugly headlines about the European economy. It's teetering toward recession. Also, the dynamic Chinese economy is slowing. What does copper have to say about all this?

In 2009, copper began a rally that took it to a 2011 high of $4.50 per pound. Since then, the metal has traded in the $3-$4 per pound area. If copper should sink below its "floor" of $3 per pound and hit $2.75,it will be time to get worried about the global economy.

Source: Daily Wealth

[winston]

“Dr. Copper” could have some better news for the economy

Source: Bloomberg

http://thecrux.com/forget-plunging-oil- ... 37gMXBU%3D

[winston]

This Looming Commodity Shortage Could Mean Big Gains By Brian Weepie

There's a massive deficit looming in the copper industry.

And contrarian investors will soon have a chance to make big profits.

Let me explain…

Copper prices took a beating over the last three and a half years.

For example, shares of giant copper producer Southern Copper plummeted 38% from their December 2010 high.

But the selloff might soon be over…

You see, global copper consumption has still increased – if slowly – over the past few years.

Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Volume* 17.0 18.3 18.1 18.2 19.4 20.3 20.5 20.9
Change +8% -1% +1% +7% +5% +1% +2%
Source: Statista.com

* in million metric tons

Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX), the world's second-largest copper producer, expects demand to continue to increase 3%-4% annually over the next five years.

The strong copper consumption forecast is largely dependent on the health of the Chinese economy.

China is the world's largest copper consumer. In 2006, it imported 3.7 million metric tons of raw copper (ore and concentrate). In 2013, it imported a massive 10.1 million metric tons. That's a 173% increase. Through October 2014, China's imports were 9.5 million metric tons. If it continues at that pace for the rest of the year, it should import 11.4 million metric tons by the end of the year… up 13% from last year.

New investment in power networks and demand from rail projects are driving the increase in China's copper consumption. Reuters reports that the country's refined copper demand will increase 6% in 2015. Chile also expects copper demand from China to increase 9% this year.

If the Chinese economy hits the wall – like many expect – copper consumption could sink. But if it continues to grow, copper producers will have a hard time keeping up with demand. And as we've shown you in these pages before, China's commodity consumption doesn't appear to be slowing down.

Based on current economic growth rates, industry analyst Wood Mackenzie reports that we'll need an additional 7.3 million metric tons of annual copper supply by 2024.

Yet the total production of the world's 10 largest copper mines is only 4.5 million metric tons per year.

Mine Producer Location Production as of 2013(in metric tons)
Escondida BHP Billiton Chile 1,100,000
El Teniente Codelco Chile 450,000
Antamina BHP Xstrata Peru 447,000
Grasberg Freeport Indonesia 421,818
Los Bronces Anglo Am Chile 416,300
Los Pelambres Antofagasta Chile 405,300
Radomiro Tomic Codelco Chile 379,600
Chuquicamata Codelco Chile 356,000*
Morenci Plant Freeport USA 301,818
Cerro Verde Freeport Peru 253,636
Source: Mining-Technology.com
*2012 data

In short, we're about to see a massive deficit in copper.

That's why copper producers have been investing billions to increase their capacity, despite falling profits.

Freeport-McMoRan plans to produce more than 2.2 million metric tons per year by 2015. That's a huge 37% increase from 2012.

But the increase in production and some new giant mines coming online – like Turquoise Hill's massive Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia – likely still won't be enough.

And more demand than supply will drive copper prices higher.

Copper prices are still looking for a bottom today, as you can see in the chart below:

Please Enable Images to See this

But over the next six to 12 months, once the market realizes we're about to have a shortage of copper, I expect to see the beginning of an uptrend. And once this happens, copper miners are going to soar.

We'll be monitoring the copper trend closely in Growth Stock Wire. And we'll let you know when it's time to buy.

Source: www.growthstockwire.com

[winston]

Copper struggles… the metal is down nearly 10% in the past four months.

[behappyalways]

Copper plunge may point to pain for stocks
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102228235

[winston]

WHAT COPPER IS SAYING ABOUT CHINA

How strong is the Chinese economy? Copper is saying "not very stron

Regular readers know we monitor copper to get a read on the global economy. The metal is a vital ingredient in everything around you... like home wiring, plumbing, cars, electronics, and refrigerators. This "in everything" quality makes copper rise and fall with economic activity.

Since China is the world's largest consumer of copper, its economic health plays a key role in copper prices. In the past six months, we've heard that Chinese economic growth is slowing. But what does copper say about all this?

In 2009, copper began a rally that took it to a 2011 high of $4.50 per pound. Since then, the metal has traded in the $3-$4 per pound area. But just last week, copper broke out of this trading range by plunging to less than $3. It's a sign that all is not well with China's economy.

Source: www.dailywealth.com

[winston]

This Could Be the Trade of 2015 By Matt Badiali

2015 may be the year of the copper trade.

Copper prices took a beating over the past three and a half years… falling around 28%. And the "experts" don't believe prices will rise next year.

But I disagree. Copper prices are about to head higher… and contrarian investors could make a lot of money.

Let me explain…

As regular Growth Stock Wire readers know, copper is a leading economic indicator. It's in everything from batteries to refrigerators to water pipes. Because of this, it tends to boom and bust with economic cycles.

In times of strong economic growth, the demand for consumer goods and building materials that include copper increases – and copper prices rise. In times of slowing economic growth, the demand for these things decreases and copper prices fall. This is what we've seen over the past few years.

As you can see in the chart below, copper prices are at their lowest point since 2010.

Please Enable Images to See this

Many experts expect prices to stay low through next year. But as my colleague Brian Weepie showed you a few weeks ago, global copper consumption is actually increasing.

Copper demand has grown by nearly 3 million metric tons since 2008. That's a 15% increase in the past six years. And Freeport-McMoRan, the world's second-largest copper producer, expects demand to continue to increase 3%-4% annually over the next five years. Based on current economic growth rates, industry analyst Wood Mackenzie reports that we'll need an additional 7.3 million metric tons of annual copper supply by 2024.

Yet the total production of the world's 10 largest copper mines is only 4.5 million metric tons per year.

In short, we're about to see a massive deficit in copper.

And thanks to the collapse in oil prices, copper demand is likely headed even higher in the short term.

You see, nothing lights a fire under an economy like cheap energy.

As regular readers know, oil prices have been falling in recent months. The price of global benchmark Brent crude oil is down 44% since its peak in 2012 at $126 per barrel.

Oil provides more than one-third of the world's energy every day. So when prices rise, people spend less on other things – helping lower economic growth.

The economic "rule of thumb" for oil prices is: for every $10 increase in the oil price, gross domestic product (GDP) growth slows by around 0.5% within two years.

For example, from May 2010 to April 2011, the spot price of Brent crude nearly doubled. It rose from just more than $67 per barrel to $124 per barrel (a $57 per barrel rise).

Meanwhile, the annual average price of Brent crude – the average price per barrel you paid if you bought oil every day – soared from $80 per barrel in 2010 to $112 per barrel in 2012. That's a $32 per barrel rise – or 40% – in just two years.

This massive increase acted like a huge brake on the global economic recovery.

The average GDP growth of the world's 10 largest economies was humming along at 8% in 2010 and 10% in 2011. But after oil prices rose, it collapsed to just 2% in 2012 and 2013. That's a massive 8% decline.

The opposite is also true. As oil prices fall, people spend money on other things – boosting economic growth.

For example, as the average Brent crude oil price fell from $112 per barrel in 2012 to $102 per barrel this year, the GDP growth of the world's 10 largest economies increased from 2% in 2012 to an estimated 5% this year.

In short, lower oil prices are great for big economies around the world. With oil prices down more than $44 since June 2014, world economic growth should increase in the months ahead – which will drive copper demand higher. And more demand than supply will be great for copper prices.

Copper prices haven't found a bottom yet – but when they do, there's big upside potential. That's why 2015 could be the year of the copper trade. We'll let you know when it's time to get in.

Source: www.growthstockwire.com

[winston]

OIL CRASH: Must-see chart shows this time could be different by Chris Kimble

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

When crude oil was trading above $90, the “Power of the Pattern” suggested that the most important commodity on the planet could trade down to at least $70.

Joe Friday shared a few weeks ago that if crude were to break below this long-term support line, it could then fall to the $35 zone.

The above 2-pack takes a look at crude oil and copper. As you can see, both of them are testing support lines (1). Each of these lines have been in place for over a decade.

So far the decline in crude oil and copper has been totally dismissed by global equities. Will stocks continue to stay strong if these long-term support lines are broken by 5% to 10% below current prices?

At this time, support is support until broken!

In my humble opinion, I feel stocks could end up in trouble if selling pressure picks up on a solid break below support lines (1)

Source: Kimble Charting Solutions

http://thecrux.com/stunning-chart-says- ... 37gMXBU%3D