Coal 02 (Jul 12 - Dec 18)

Re: Coal 02 (Jul 12 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Sat Oct 15, 2016 2:56 pm

3 Coal Stocks That Are as Good as Gold Thanks to the 2016 Election

Controversial coal stocks are now one of the best investments of 2016

By Josh Enomoto

Source: Investor Place

http://investorplace.com/2016/10/3-coal ... AHQL-B96M8
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Re: Coal 02 (Jul 12 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Wed Oct 19, 2016 10:18 am

Coal – China

Coal Prices To Stabilise At High Levels in Winter; Earnings To Surge In 2H16

On the back of government policies to increase coal supply, we expect domestic coal prices to stabilise during the peak consumption season in the winter and start correcting from next year.

Meanwhile, we expect the strong earnings surge in 3Q16 and 4Q16 to be near-term share price catalyst.

Maintain OVERWEIGHT.

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... d63138de4a
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Re: Coal 02 (Jul 12 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Wed Oct 26, 2016 8:17 am

China Thermal Coal Futures Hit Record High: Why This Rally Has Not Ended

By Shuli Ren

The dirty, unloved coal has experienced a fantastic bull run this summer. By last week, thermal coal reached 619 yuan per tonne, a 70% boost year-to-date. Yesterday, thermal coal futures listed in China closed 4% higher to a new record high.

Is the coal rally over?

Maybe we can expect to see thermal coal at 700 yuan per tonne, according to Deutsche Bank‘s James Kan.

The key reason is momentum.

Beijing has made President Xi Jinping’s supply-side reform a top-priority agenda. “With low inventory in the system and NDRC’s worry about failing supply side reform, the correction of coal price might happen slowly,” wrote. Kan in an email.

What does it mean for other commodities? Will coal push other commodities higher? “I think there will be a cost push for other commodities with low inventory…..so, aluminium, cement, steel prices might all be pushed up in 4Q16.

Urea and PVC prices will be pushed as well”, noted Kan.

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... not-ended/
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Re: Coal 02 (Jul 12 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Thu Oct 27, 2016 3:19 pm

China Pushes For Higher Coal Production

Amid the strong coal price upsurge, the NDRC is urging coal miners to abide by the production increase plan introduced at end-Sep 16 and is encouraging coal miners and IPPs to sign long-term key contracts.

We expect coal prices to stay high in November and soften in December.

In the long term, the industry will still be in a recovery cycle, given the excessive capacity cuts.

Maintain OVERWEIGHT.

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... cd9561ece8
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Re: Coal 02 (Jul 12 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Fri Nov 04, 2016 2:18 pm

China’s Coal Prices Rally Just Won’t End

By Shuli Ren

President Xi Jinping‘s supply-side reform has worked too well.

Coking coal and thermal coal futures rallied over 6% today, more than doubling this year.

Coking coal futures to be delivered next January went limit up on November 4, 2016

Beijing has been nervous about this coal rally for a while, asking coal miners to pump up production again. Recently, Beijing even asked China’s biggest coal miners to cut wholesale spot prices.

China Coal Group has already announced plans to cut its spot sales price by 10 yuan per ton in November, according to Chinese media.

China Coal’s price cut is just to please China’s central planners and has nothing to do with economics, lamented Goldman Sachs:

Historically, coal miners have a strong incentive to support the coal price at year-end, to gain better bargaining power in their annual contract coal negotiations.

According to SXCoal, negotiations for 2017 could take place in late-November this year, and the government is trying to settle the contract price around Rmb535-540/t for 5,500kcal/kg coal.

To be sure, analysts are broadly bearish on long-term coal prices. But coal production has this thing called momentum.

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... -wont-end/
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Re: Coal 02 (Jul 12 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:35 am

Another Analyst Says China’s Coal Rally Is Over

By Shuli Ren

China’s coal futures won’t stop rallying even as one commodity analyst after another comes out saying this rally is over.

In its initiation report on China’s coal sector, UBS analysts Yang Luo and Benson Chen warned that “coal prices are peaking” and sequential downfall will “kick in soon”.

The pivotal question around coal is if this level of coal prices is sustainable. QHD 5500K thermal spot coal price soared to 651 yuan per ton last week, a new high in the last 4 years.

UBS analysts say this spot price is crazy and see 25% downside.

Source: Barron's Asia

http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/201 ... y-is-over/
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Re: Coal 02 (Jul 12 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Tue Nov 08, 2016 2:24 pm

Coal Futures Tumble As China Raises Transaction Fees

By Shuli Ren

Beijing has been trying to stem the coal prices rally.

It has asked major coal producers to boost production and cut November spot delivery prices, but to little avail.

How about tackling speculative traders?

That’s exactly what China did today. China’s three largest commodity futures exchanges all raised their transaction costs today.

Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange said it would adjust transaction fees for thermal coal futures trades to 30 yuan per lot, up from 24 yuan per lot set on October 31.

Dalian Commodity Exchange also said in a notice (in Chinese only) that it raised coal futures trading margin as well as transaction fees for trades conducted during the thin-liquidity evening hours.

Thermal coal fell 5%, coking coal was down 3.7%.

Source: Barron's Asia
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Re: Coal 02 (Jul 12 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Wed Nov 16, 2016 10:38 am

Coal – China

Coal Prices To Soften; Downgrade To UNDERWEIGHT

Along with China’s policies to increase coal supply and the gradual replenishment of coal inventory, we think domestic coal prices will retreat slowly in the next few weeks and more so after winter.

This should pressure share prices in the industry.

We downgrade the sector to UNDERWEIGHT and China Coal and Yanzhou Coal to SELL

Source: UOBKH

https://research.uobkayhian.com/content ... 7ec134f63e
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Re: Coal 02 (Jul 12 - Dec 16)

Postby winston » Wed Jan 04, 2017 1:01 pm

<Research Report>BOCI: Coal Sector Capacity Under Further Cut in 13th 5YP; CHINA SHENHUA Most Benefited

BOC International, in its report, said the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and National Energy Administration (NEA) have jointly unveiled the 13th Five-Year Plan (5YP) for coal industry development.

In the five years up to the end-2020, the government targets to phase out 800 million tons per annum (tpa) of obsolete coal production capacity.

Coal output is targeted to reach 3.9 billion tons by 2020, representing a 0.8% increase from the 2015 level.

Significant cut in the number of coal mines is also an aim, especially small mines.

The number of coal mines in China will be reduced to 6,000 by end-2020, down 39% from the end-2015 level. Further increase in industry concentration is stressed, and the focus is put on depressing output in eastern China, and increasing output in western China.

The broker said CHINA SHENHUA (01088.HK) and CHINA COAL (01898.HK) are expected to benefit as the industry concentration will rise, especially for Shenhua, as it is a national market leader and also one of the very few companies having new mines.

The broker also said such plan is negative to YANZHOU COAL (01171.HK) as the group is headquartered in Shandong, and the output by 2020 will decline. That is expected to affect the earnings.

Source: AAStocks Financial News
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Re: Coal 02 (Jul 12 - Dec 17)

Postby winston » Wed Jan 11, 2017 10:17 am

not vested

U.S. coal production plunged by 17 percent in 2016 from 2015 levels. Coal output is now at its lowest level since 1978.

U.S. coal production has been falling for nearly a decade, but the decline has accelerated in the last few years.

The main drivers are cheap natural gas, a few warm winters that led to gluts of gas and coal, but more importantly a mass shuttering of coal-fired power plants that have sapped demand.

International coal markets have also been in the doldrums for years, putting downward pressure on prices and leaving few outlets for U.S. coal miners.

Source: Oil Price Intelligence
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