Coffee

Re: Coffee

Postby winston » Fri Jul 21, 2017 11:25 am

Cold Brew Might Save the Coffee Market

By Marvin G Perez

U.S. sales rose 80% in 12 months to February, StudyLogic says
Brewing method can use twice much ground beans as hot coffee

The need to soak up extra supply is especially important with the price of arabica coffee futures in New York dropping as much as 21 percent in the past year and the pace of demand growth in the U.S. forecast to slow.


In the 12 months ended in February, sales of cold brew in the U.S. were up about 80 percent over the prior year. Sales of hot coffee fell 3 percent over the same period.

Americans drank 105 billion cups in the 12 months ended in May,


Total U.S. coffee consumption is projected to be a record in 2017-18, up 1.5 percent. That gain lags a 4.4 percent rise a year earlier


That’s helped breathe some life into the market for coffee beans, along with signs of tightening inventories in Brazil and Vietnam, the world’s top growers, and crop issues in Colombia.


Fourth straight production shortfall, according to Rabobank, which estimates the gap could be as much as 6.8 million bags in 2017-18 crop year starting Oct. 1.


Source: Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... mbergdaily
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Re: Coffee

Postby winston » Mon Aug 28, 2017 9:32 pm

Coffee ETN Surges, Reversing Heavy August Decline

by MAX CHEN

Coffee futures have been weakening on increased crop yields out of Brazil, the world’s largest producer of coffee beans.

“The expectation for a bumper 2018/19 Brazil arabica crop could keep futures prices subdued but that crop has yet to flower,” Rabobank said in a market note, adding prices may be volatile during the flowering period, according to Reuters.

Rabobank raised its estimated surplus for the world arabica market for the 2016 to 2017 season by 1.1 million bags to 3.7 million bags, Economic Calendar reports.

Furthermore, foreign exchange fluctuations, notably the U.S. dollar weakening against the Brazilian real, kept Brazilian farmers from selling their beans due to lower profit margins.

However, Rabobank argued that the robust coffee market is “nearly the peak” of an output deficit, and only a “very good” Vietnamese crop could bridge the deficit.

“The robust market will be tight” until supplies from this harvest hit export markets in December, Rabobank said.

The bank projected that world production for robusta will fall into a deficit in 2017 to 2018 at 2.9 million bags, or 200,000 bags smaller than previously expected, but following on from a deficit fro last season pushed higher to 3.8 million bags, according to Agrimoney.

Meanwhile, robust futures are trading in “backwardation” where nearby contracts trade higher than later-dated contracts, reflecting rising demand for supplies. Consequently, pricing could be volatile if the Vietnamese crop is delayed due to rains, with backwardation steepening.


Source: ETF Trends

https://www.etftrends.com/coffee-etn-su ... t-decline/
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Re: Coffee

Postby winston » Sat Sep 23, 2017 4:27 pm

This Daily Ritual Could Affect Your Life Expectancy

by Steve McDonald

Two recent studies, one in the U.S. and one that covered 10 EU countries, found that those who drank at least one cup of coffee per day lived longer than those who did not.

Those who drank four or more cups a day had an 18% lower risk of dying before the end of the study.


Source: The Oxford Club
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Re: Coffee

Postby winston » Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:18 pm

Sep 30, 2017

Infographic: 5 Coffee Fun Facts for National Coffee Day

by Ryan McQueeney

Source: Zacks

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/infograp ... 07567.html
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Re: Coffee

Postby winston » Sun Oct 29, 2017 9:20 am

Coffee (Arabica) - Lower. US$127 from US$125 from US$127;
Low: US$125; US$120; High: US$175; US$300 (2011).
a. Coffee is the 2nd most traded commodity after crude oil; US$19b trade
b. Europe: largest importer, 1/3 world’s consumption.
c. Brazil: biggest coffee producer, 1/3 world’s coffee
d. USA imports US$4b of coffee yearly
e. 150m Americans drink coffee daily (400m cups); World: 2.25b cups
f. Supply: 152m bags;
g. Demand 155m bags. By 2030, rising to 200m bags; 5% growth pa
h. Arabica (Brazil) - 50m bags; Risk - higher temperatures and pests
i. By 2050, suitable land in Central America will be halved and demand doubled
j. Central America replacing coffee with cocoa, due to climate change
k. Columbia: Crop Issues
l. Robusta (Vietnam: 20% global); Used in Instant Coffee; 40% more caffeine
m. Break Point: High US$300 (Apr 2011); Low US$112 (Feb 2016)
n. Growth: USA +1.5% from 4.4%; China +5%; India +4%
o. US: Hot Brew: -3% yoy; Cold Brew: +80% yoy;
p. Illy: Rebalancing in 2017?
q. Arabica: Surplus 3.7m bags
r. Robusta: Deficit 3.8m bags
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Re: Coffee

Postby winston » Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:34 am

’Massive shortfalls’ seen in global robusta coffee supply - Olam

NEW YORK: Two straight years of ”massive shortfalls” in global robusta coffee output will create a cumulative supply deficit of 8 million bags that should be reflected in much higher prices, Olam International Ltd’s chief executive officer said on Wednesday.

Forecast a 4 million bag robusta deficit in the 2016/17 marketing year and again in 2017/18.

Robusta prices could be poised for a ”flare-up” as the market has inverted -- when the contracts for nearby delivery are more expensive than deferreds -- and differentials in top-grower Vietnam and Indonesia tighten, Verghese said.

In the larger arabica market, however, he forecast a short-term price correction upwards.

“But once the very large estimated 2018/19 arabica crop in Brazil comes to pass, which will be a record high crop, we expect that will have a bearish impact on prices,” he said.

Source: Reuters

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... ly---olam/
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Re: Coffee

Postby winston » Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:47 am

Why your morning coffee will taste different and cost more

By Molly Harriss Olson

Worldwide, more than 2.75 billion cups of coffee are consumed every day.

Coffee yields and quality are already suffering, and pests and diseases are on the rise.

About 70 per cent of the world's 25 million coffee producers are smallholders.


Source: ABC

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-17/w ... re/9158774
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Re: Coffee

Postby winston » Wed Nov 22, 2017 7:08 am

Rainy Weather In Vietnam May Affect Coffee Prices

Rainy weather in Vietnam may damage the robusta coffee crop. Will the coffee prices grow?

The storm in the Central Highlands of Vietnam contributes to the dreg increase, which hinders the cleaning and drying of coffee beans.

According to the MDA Weather Services forecast, weather conditions may also worsen in Brazil, where the arabica coffee grows.

Vietnam accounts for about 20% of the world's coffee crop and Brazil - for about another third.

Another negative factor for the world coffee market may be the decrease in exports from Honduras by 4.3% and from Costa Rica by 55% in October 2017.

The Honduras share of exports in the world coffee market is less than 3% and about 1.5% of Costa Rica.

The main reason for the decline in exports from these countries was the negative impact of tropical storm Nate in the Atlantic Ocean. Weather conditions usually strongly influence the price dynamics of agricultural futures.

The RSI indicator is at 50. It has formed a positive divergence.
The MACD indicator gives a bullish signal.

Summary of technical analysis
Position - Buy
Buy stop - above 133
Stop loss - below 123

Source: Investing.com

https://www.investing.com/analysis/tech ... -200258379
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Re: Coffee

Postby winston » Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:25 pm

March coffee closed higher due to short covering

March coffee closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off November's high.

The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday.

Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term.

If March extends the aforementioned decline, weekly support crossing at 11.34 is the next downside target.

Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 12.59 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

Source: INO
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