InvestIdeas

More than 23 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas pipeline capacity will come online by the end of this year, a jump of almost a third from 16.7 Bcf/d at the end of last year.

Source: Oil price Intelligence

Tariffs and LNG

Continuing impact of US-China tariff war on LNG exports to Asia and economic impact there.

Specifically, this week to assess whether the decision by China to hit US LNG imports with a 10% tariff is the last word on the subject; if Chinese move toward increasing Russian LNG imports is serious.

Source: Oil & Energy Investor

China - Natural Gas

The Chongqing People’s Congress proposed to remove the city’s natural gas installation fee to reduce costs for households and to advance price reforms, in moves that would eat into the income of Chinese gas producers.

Deutsche Bank said in a research note that local gas distributors could reduce the relevant initial installation cost to 1,000 yuan (US$145.57) per household from 2,150 yuan, but it was uncertain whether other local governments would follow Chongqing’s move.

Source: SCMP

Natural gas prices up sharply

Natural gas prices jumped more than 7 percent on a single day this week, on reports that colder than normal weather is about to hit much of the country.

Henry Hub prices jumped to $3.50/MMBtu, the highest level since January.

With natural gas inventories at a 15-year low, the buffer the U.S. has heading into winter is unusually thin, which could heighten volatility during periods of abnormally cold weather over the next few months.

Source: OilPrice.com

not vested

Why Are Natural Gas Prices Crashing?

by Nick Cunningham

Shrugging off low levels of storage, natural gas prices have continued to plunge.

The U.S. entered this past winter with natural gas supplies at a 15-year low. Paltry levels of gas in storage, just ahead of the peak winter demand season, pushed prices up to the highest level in four years.

A cold snap in November led to a jump of around 30 percent in a week, an increase so fast and so quick that it forced at least one trading firm out of business.

Demand had steadily increased year-after-year as gas-fired power plants replaced shuttered coal plants.

The surge in LNG exports and petrochemicals also amounted to a new source of demand that didn’t exist in its current form only a few years ago.

Analysts and gas traders have largely shrugged off low storage levels, expecting that the “injection season” – the months between April and November when demand is seasonally soft – will see storage levels fill up quickly, replenishing depleted stocks.

Source: Oilprice.com

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-natu ... 00768.html

IHS Markit report predicts low natural gas prices for years

According to IHS Markit, U.S. natural gas prices could average below $2/MMBtu next year, the lowest price in real terms since the 1970s.

Demand is rising, but not by enough to absorb oversupply.

“It is simply too much too fast,” Sam Andrus, executive director of IHS Markit, said in a statement.

“Drillers are now able to increase supply faster than domestic or global markets can consume it.

Before market forces can correct the imbalance, here comes a fresh surge of supply from somewhere else.”

Source: Oil Price Intelligence

Natural gas inventories have surged this year, rising from a low point of 1,155 billion cubic feet (Bcf) in April to 3,724 Bcf at the end of October.

Natural gas stocks are now 37 Bcf above the five-year average.

The U.S. is entering the winter season with ample supplies, which has weighed on natural gas prices and puts somewhat of a cap on any rally.

Gas drillers are struggling financially as a result.

Source: Oil Price Intelligence

ENERGY SECTOR – RISE, OIL’S FORGOTTEN COUSIN

Natural gas prices hitting record highs, turning around from earlier oversupply – but how sustainable?

Also keep in mind that companies focus on longer-dated futures

Eyeing Brent crude at around USD80/bbl over 3-mth timeframe, before settling to USD76/bbl in 12 months

What a difference a year makes. Just over a year ago, the global gas market was facing extreme oversupply.

Prices had fallen to ~USD2/mmbtu or lower across key global benchmarks, near historic lows that fully eliminated regional price spreads for the first time in decades.

Since then, surging demand, constrained supply and low storage, have pushed key gas and LNG benchmarks to multi-year highs. Along with supportive crude prices, the energy sector has performed strongly year-to-date.

However, we remind investors that companies focus on longer-dated futures in their budgeting and capital expenditure plans, and it is likely that record high natural gas prices may find some gravity again in 2022 when new supply comes to the market.

For the integrateds, much of their gas exposure is either sold under oil-linked contracts or hedged in the near term, although they do still have some spot and trading exposure.

Pure play natural gas focused companies under our coverage with upside include E&P companies such as Cabot Oil and Gas [BUY; FV: USD23], as well as LNG company Cheniere Energy [HOLD; FV: USD97].

For Brent crude, our bank’s forecast is for USD80/bbl over a 3-month timeframe, before settling to USD76/bbl in 12 months.

As mentioned in our earlier sector report on 9 Jul 2021, the easy gains have been made and investors are advised to be more selective.

Source: OCBC

Operator Of Nord Stream 2 Fires All Employees After US Sanctions
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... -sanctions

卡達貴為全球最大LNG出口國 直言俄難以取代 TVBS文茜的世界財經周報 20220403 X 富蘭克林‧國民的基金
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5M2Xu0DTPOc